Seeking Alpha
  • Tom Guttenberger
    If you don't, then now you know: My two plays are time sensitve wagers on DNKN - short. ACI - long. PMIR modeling attempt an effort toward
    5/2/12
    Reply (12)
    • Tom Guttenberger: ACI thesis.
      5/3/12
    • iadops40: I liked ACI but after todays earnings with lower production estimates and dividend cut makes me think twice, risky position to hold now
      5/3/12
    • iadops40: It's bottomed out, especially after today's sell off, $.08 off it's 52 week low, but it trend lower in the short term, China export is key
      5/3/12
    • Tom Guttenberger: I think there are 3 main risks: Natural gas inventory/prices, broad market, emerging energy demand (china).
      5/3/12
    • Tom Guttenberger: Using regression analysis with these 3 variables, I was hard-pressed to justify recent movements in coal names.
      5/3/12
    • Tom Guttenberger: All three of those factors are near equal weight in my opinion.
      5/3/12
    • J. Sheehan: What % does ACI export? Are the logistics there? I hope so - Long on ACI
      5/4/12
    • Tom Guttenberger: Their quarterly forcasted industry export market and sited it as a growth segment w/logistics in place..didn't see a specific figure, sorry.
      5/4/12
    • J. Sheehan: I appreciate the response. My concern was that ACI lacked log. to export, compared to a company like BTU. (dis - long on BTU)
      5/4/12
    • J. Sheehan: When I bought ACI I was so wrapped up in NG vs. coal and didn't even consider the possibility of a div. cut - 4.7% to 1.5%... D'oh!
      5/4/12
    • Tom Guttenberger: Well operationally, I liked the divy cut..better than financing through expensive credit, I found it prudent, just like their guidance -
      5/4/12
    • Tom Guttenberger: if the price of coal is low, mine less. Patience, recources aren't jumping out of the ground and running away.
      5/4/12
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