Tom Kametz

Long only, value
Tom Kametz
Long only, value
Contributor since: 2012
The Saudi's have basically decided to bankrupt our domestic oil industry and so far we, our government, is allowing them to do it. How could this be in our National interest? I suppose only Obama knows?
Gil, you should have made your reply an article. Then you would at least get paid for it. Good job anyway, Tom K
I guess that's why timber companies make millions of dollars a year leasing hunting rights!
I'm always amazed at how liberals steadfastly refuse to acknowledge the obvious right before their eyes.
How can this be with 93 million people out of work?
It looks like Acadian just changed the accounting method of the book value of their timberlands from historical value to market value. All the U.S. Timber companies must use historical value.
I think there is still too much noise in RYN's numbers from the spin off to make any sense of your numbers yet. Also, as I've stated in my previous articles, quarter to quarter numbers don't mean much in the timber industry due to allot of seasonality in the business.
Ditto to all!
If it's a stand or strata inventory, you could assume each stand or strata would be +- 10% or so. If you then combine all of the stands or strata, you have more plots and the SE goes down to the 2-5% I mentioned. Statistics can be fun!
There does seem to be allot of lawyers queuing up, we'll just have to wait and see what happens.
I know Dave Nunes, the new CEO, and have full confidence in him. I think he will do very well by the company.
These are usually internal issues, however, this one affected the depletion for 1st and 2nd quarter in a material way.
Non-strategic timberlands does not mean HBU real estate properties. It means timberland, not HBU.
We will have to wait and see what happens with the dividend.
2%-3% growth is on the conservative side.
Yes, I did not even count the HBU in this example. Plus, St Joe's was low site heavily cut lands.
I'm looking into RYN now, will write something soon.
It would make more sense if they moved to Atlanta or some point South.
LPX is a forest products company rather than a timber company so it is not a good compatible to PCL. Also, WY has sawmills and pulpmills so it is a little different than PCL. Also, WY still has some noise in its numbers from its 2010 REIT conversion, and the recent sale of its home building division.
The way I look at it is that I invest in a company to be a partial owner. The dividend is my share of the profits.
It been about six months, I'm not sure the froth is out yet. I'm not familiar with Arborgen but it looks like maybe MWV old genetics program is trying to go it alone?
In the call about RYAM, they said the dividend would be in the 1 to 2 percent range. I would expect RYN to be 3 - 4 percent.
I think you are making more of RYNs CEO going with RYNAM than is justified. Mr Boynston had to go with one or the other. It is only natural that he goes with the larger entity. Also, Mr. Boynston's background, other than at RYN, is in engineering and business rather than the timber industry. RYN's new CEO, Dave Nunes comes from Pope Resources and Weyerhaeuser and has an excellent timber background.
Maybe it's for the opposite reason. Stocks don't perform better after a split, but only shocks doing particularly good split!
Plum Creeks future depends on the recovery of Southern Pine stump age prices, which depend on housing starts. Although I think this will happen eventually, housing starts have been slow in recovering. Anyway, I think PCL is a buy right now.
I would not consider SPB as a major risk. Every now and then there is an outbreak, and sometimes it could be significant. However, I consider it a normal risk in southern pine management. It is not like the Mountain Pine Beetle in Canada.
Zvi, good article. RYN, however, does not build houses as WY does. It's real estate business does develope land and sell to home builders.
Low interest rates are meaningless if you are unemployed.
I agree, waiting for pine sawtimber prices to recover is like waiting for Godot. The current regimes policies are holding the housing recovery back so I see a few more years of stagnant growth. When it does come, however, PCL and the other timber REITs will be a great place to be.
There seems to be some misunderstanding on what I am saying in this article. Timber companies own timberland. Timberland is in high demand and is a very liquid asset. My point is that in 2013 this asset appreciated by about 9.69%. Now the stock price may or may not reflect the true asset value of the land owned by the timber company. In fact, there is nothing in the GAAP accounting that is reported that gives any clue of the underlying asset value. What is on the books is the original purchase price updated for depletion. Here is an example, the estimates are mine.
Pope Resources
Acres $/Acre Total
Fee Timberland 110,500 $3,500 $386,750,000
Timber Funds 13,700 $3,200 $43,840,000
Real Estate 2,500 $10,000 $25,000,000
Total 126,700 $455,590,000
Debt ($39,199,000)Net $416,391,000
3/18/14 Market Cap $300,000,000
3/18/13 Market Cap $265,300,000
3/18/12 Market Cap $190,000,000
As you can see there is little correlation between the stock price and the value of the assets owned by POPE. It is my contention that you could liquidate the company and get around $95 per unit. It is trading today at about $68.70.
I see no problem with dividends from RYN, ACAZf, and POPE. I'm not too familiar with Norbord.
They are on the books at their original purchase price
It's not a rumor, it has been announced, and yes I still would buy.
Interesting point. At first I thought you may be right but after some more thought, I believe my initial interpretation is correct. Appraisals are forward looking, so if the appraisal is as of 12/31/13 then what happened in 2013 is irrelevant. The appraisal is a DCF analysis as of that date and is compared to last years DCF as of 12/31/12.
In my opinion, the appraised value of a publicly traded timber companies land rarely is a factor in its stock price. However, if the appraised timberland value is too out of sync with the companies market cap, something is wrong.