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Tom Kametz

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  • A Few Reasons Why I'm Still Attracted To Shares Of Plum Creek Timber [View article]
    Plum Creeks future depends on the recovery of Southern Pine stump age prices, which depend on housing starts. Although I think this will happen eventually, housing starts have been slow in recovering. Anyway, I think PCL is a buy right now.
    Apr 14 09:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deltic Timber Corp., A Second Look [View article]
    I would not consider SPB as a major risk. Every now and then there is an outbreak, and sometimes it could be significant. However, I consider it a normal risk in southern pine management. It is not like the Mountain Pine Beetle in Canada.
    Apr 3 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allowing Your Money To Grow On Trees With These REITs [View article]
    Zvi, good article. RYN, however, does not build houses as WY does. It's real estate business does develope land and sell to home builders.
    Apr 3 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plum Creek Timber Biding Time [View article]
    Low interest rates are meaningless if you are unemployed.
    Mar 26 11:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plum Creek Timber Biding Time [View article]
    I agree, waiting for pine sawtimber prices to recover is like waiting for Godot. The current regimes policies are holding the housing recovery back so I see a few more years of stagnant growth. When it does come, however, PCL and the other timber REITs will be a great place to be.
    Mar 26 12:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Timberland Values Increase 9.69% In 2013 [View article]
    There seems to be some misunderstanding on what I am saying in this article. Timber companies own timberland. Timberland is in high demand and is a very liquid asset. My point is that in 2013 this asset appreciated by about 9.69%. Now the stock price may or may not reflect the true asset value of the land owned by the timber company. In fact, there is nothing in the GAAP accounting that is reported that gives any clue of the underlying asset value. What is on the books is the original purchase price updated for depletion. Here is an example, the estimates are mine.

    Pope Resources
    Acres $/Acre Total
    Fee Timberland 110,500 $3,500 $386,750,000
    Timber Funds 13,700 $3,200 $43,840,000
    Real Estate 2,500 $10,000 $25,000,000
    Total 126,700 $455,590,000
    Debt ($39,199,000)Net $416,391,000

    3/18/14 Market Cap $300,000,000
    3/18/13 Market Cap $265,300,000
    3/18/12 Market Cap $190,000,000
    As you can see there is little correlation between the stock price and the value of the assets owned by POPE. It is my contention that you could liquidate the company and get around $95 per unit. It is trading today at about $68.70.
    Mar 18 06:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Timberland Values Increase 9.69% In 2013 [View article]
    I see no problem with dividends from RYN, ACAZf, and POPE. I'm not too familiar with Norbord.
    Mar 16 11:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Timberland Values Increase 9.69% In 2013 [View article]
    They are on the books at their original purchase price
    Mar 16 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Timberland Values Increase 9.69% In 2013 [View article]
    It's not a rumor, it has been announced, and yes I still would buy.
    Mar 16 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Timberland Values Increase 9.69% In 2013 [View article]
    Interesting point. At first I thought you may be right but after some more thought, I believe my initial interpretation is correct. Appraisals are forward looking, so if the appraisal is as of 12/31/13 then what happened in 2013 is irrelevant. The appraisal is a DCF analysis as of that date and is compared to last years DCF as of 12/31/12.

    In my opinion, the appraised value of a publicly traded timber companies land rarely is a factor in its stock price. However, if the appraised timberland value is too out of sync with the companies market cap, something is wrong.
    Mar 15 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Timberland Values Increase 9.69% In 2013 [View article]
    If I were buying right now it would probably be Rayonier.
    Mar 15 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comments On Potlatch's 2012 Results [View article]
    I do have a small position in ACAZF. I like the dividend, even though they take a 25% Canadian tax out of it. I'm monitoring it but the jury is still out. I think it will do well if and when housing ever fully recovers. Also, with Brookfield running it I see a good potential long run.
    Feb 25 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CatchMark Timber Trust: The Newest Timber REIT [View article]
    Yes, depletion is the main issue that muddies the waters for a timber company.
    Feb 9 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CatchMark Timber Trust: The Newest Timber REIT [View article]
    To the best of my knowledge, MWV does not have any ownership in CTT. Yes FFO could be used.
    Feb 9 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pope Resources: Vulnerable To A Housing Slowdown; Overpriced By 50% [View article]
    Pope's lands are worth more like $2,800 to $3,200 per acre. Maybe more using the latest WY Longview comp.
    Feb 8 12:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
120 Comments
121 Likes