Seeking Alpha

Tom Konrad, CFA  

View Tom Konrad, CFA's Comments BY TICKER:
  • Accell Group: This Small-Cap Will Benefit From The Booming E-Bike Market [View article]
    Bike stocks are few and far between. Accell is the only one I currently own, but in addition to Giant, there's Dorel Industires (OTCPK:DIIBF) and Shimano (SHMDF.) Dorel is only about 1/3 bicycles by revenue, so not much of a bike stock. I love Shimano as a company, but, as a Japanese stock it usually trades at a pretty lofty valuation.
    Dec 18, 2013. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accell Looks Like The Best Peak Oil Investment To Buy Now [View article]
    Obviously I have not calculated the downside, since I did not know about the EU anti-dumping duties on Chinese bikes until you pointed it out, which I appreciate. Thanks.

    Is Accell dependent on these anti-dumping duties? I'm sure they help Accell, but I doubt they are as important in the high-end bike market (where Accell operates) than they are in the commodity market.

    Do I want to invest in a company that depends on politicians? I'd prefer not to, but I don't have a choice if I want to invest at all. I have yet to find a company that doesn't in one way or another. If you've found one, please let me know, especially if it's priced as a decent value.
    Dec 6, 2011. 01:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Accell Looks Like The Best Peak Oil Investment To Buy Now [View article]
    Thanks for spotting that... I missed it. Here's the text from the annual report:
    <blockquote>
    Imports of bicycle components from outside Europe are subject to various types of duty. There is a general
    import duty (5-15%), while certain countries enjoy discount rates. In addition, an anti-dumping duty applies
    to imports of bicycles from China. The regulation also applies to imports of specific bicycle components from
    China to prevent near-complete bicycles from being imported as if they were components. The main purpose
    of the regulations is to prevent the import of complete bicycles at unfair price levels. Bicycle manufacturers
    that import components for in-house assembly are exempt from this duty. All the Accell Group companies are
    exempt. The current duty for imports from China is 48.5%. The European Commission is currently investigating
    the prolongation of the anti-dumping measures imposed on the imports from China. The absence of such
    a duty, or a substantial change to the level of the duty, could result in changes to the supply and demand
    structure in the European bicycle markets. Accell Group positions its bicycle range in the higher market segment.
    In terms of strategic positioning in this segment, quality and response time to market developments
    are of key importance. The share of assembly costs in the total cost price of bicycles in the higher segment is
    limited. This reduces the impact of a possible termination or substantial reduction of the import duty.</blockquote>

    This is not an import tax, but an anti-dumping duty, although in the end that makes little difference. Accell would be hurt if it were dropped, although that would be mitigated by Accell's high-end market segment.

    Not enough to make me bearish on the stock, but it does mitigate my bullishness.

    On the whole dividend thing, you should simply cut the dividend yield in half if you want to compare it to companies that do not pay dividends in shares, since you'd have to reinvest slightly less than half of your dividends in order not to be diluted.
    Dec 5, 2011. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accell Looks Like The Best Peak Oil Investment To Buy Now [View article]
    ACGPF.PK is the US ticker. It only changes when someone in the US makes a trade, so changes are often several weeks old. To look at the share price, you should instead look at ACCEL.AS and multiply by euros per $ to see what ACGPF.PK "should" be trading at, if there were trading.

    ACCEL.AS was up 4.9% to 14.12 Euro in Amsterdam today.
    Dec 5, 2011. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accell Looks Like The Best Peak Oil Investment To Buy Now [View article]
    Also note that the EU tariff on e-bikes is only 6%.
    Dec 5, 2011. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accell Looks Like The Best Peak Oil Investment To Buy Now [View article]
    Aren't you aware that most stocks support Dividend Reinvestment Programs (DRiPs)? These are functionally quite similar, although I expect the uptake rate is lower that the 40%+ for Accell.

    But suppose that you don't want to be diluted. Then you can choose to accept shares for 45% or so of your dividend, reducing you cash dividend to 3.5% and leaving you undiluted. Better, if you find you are short of cash, you can take the whole thing in cash.

    I fail to see how giving shareholders an option to be diluted for more cash, or the ability to increase their state in the company without a transaction fee (assuming all shares are taken as dividend is a "shareholder unfriendly practice." Rather, it's simply an annual shareholder rights offering allowing the company to raise cash at minimal expense.
    Dec 5, 2011. 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accell Looks Like The Best Peak Oil Investment To Buy Now [View article]
    That jvelesco-
    The cut in import tariff would be a big deal, if it were true. However, according to this article: http://bit.ly/rPzuxn, EU import tariffs on bikes are 14-15%, not 50%. So a cut would hut, but not be catastrophic.
    Dec 5, 2011. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accell Looks Like The Best Peak Oil Investment To Buy Now [View article]
    Accell paid a dividend of 1.71 Euro per share last May, but that was before a 2:1 stock split, which Scottrade seems to have not accounted for.

    At the current stock price of 13.47 Euro (26.94 Euro pre-split), that equates to a yield of 6.34%. When I wrote this article, Accell was trading below 13 Euro, which is why I talked about a yield of "nearly 7%."
    Dec 4, 2011. 10:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
More on ACGPF by Tom Konrad, CFA
COMMENTS STATS
1,106 Comments
1,147 Likes