Avoiding Losses in Alt Energy in 2011: Hedging Bets and Expecting the Unexpected [View article]
Mark, As you said, Alternative energy is not an asset class. What you say is true about the types of alternative energy that grab headlines: Solar, Wind, Biofuels, Wave power. My favorite alternative energy plays are more fundamentally sound, however: Energy Efficiency, Alternative Transportation, and Electric Transmission, most of which are value plays.
I agree about Fama and French, mostly. They have improved massively on MPT. However, their theory is still backward looking, and will not prepare an investor for future regime change precipitated by peak oil.
Avoiding Losses in Alt Energy in 2011: Hedging Bets and Expecting the Unexpected [View article]
The main point of the article is to make ourselves aware that there are dangerous alternatives we have not thought of. Most of already know this, but don't spend a lit of time thinking about it.
The Headlines are mostly for fun. They'll get some readers thinking and make many more angry or self-righteous.
Avoiding Losses in Alt Energy in 2011: Hedging Bets and Expecting the Unexpected [View article]
I agree with Fred on his points about the technology. I even agree with him that I don't understand the technology, although not in the sense he meant it. I simply know that there are a lot of possibilities out there that I don't understand. Unlike Fred. Fred knows everything, apparently.
Avoiding Losses in Alt Energy in 2011: Hedging Bets and Expecting the Unexpected [View article]
My point about nukes was that if there is an explosion even in a generation 3 nuke plant, it will derail generation 4 as well as 3. It's not rational, but that's politics for you.
Avoiding Losses in Alt Energy in 2011: Hedging Bets and Expecting the Unexpected [View article]
Jack Lifton said: " Please give me numerical data as a counterargument, not emotion."
I don't follow you, Jack. What am I supposed to be arguing for or against? This is an article about thinking about the dangers we are not yet aware of, not the dangers (rare metals) that we are already aware of.
My question for you is, have you thought about what might make the resource constraints you concern yourself with irrelevant?
If you can't answer the question, and you are investing your money on the assumption that there *is* no answer, you are a danger to yourself and your followers.
Will 2010 Be the Year of the Strong Grid? Part III [View article]
My central investment thesis has never been growth. I don't like growth companies, because they tend to be overhyped and overbought by people with no staying power. I like profitable, inexpensive companies that just happen to be in a sector that is poised to take off. They may not benefit as much as the growth companies in the same sector, but they give you a lot of downside protection in the case that your hopes don't work out the way you expect.
I use trailing earnings not because they are more important than future earnings. Future earnings are much more important. The problem is that we don't know what future earnings are. I just don't trust "Analysts' Expectations."
Will 2010 Be the Year of the Strong Grid? Part III [View article]
My "Year of the Strong Grid" hypothesis does not have a lot to do with fundamentals... it's more a guess that transmission might finally catch investor interest... if it does, it will be because the gov't gets its act together with some for of national transmission planning.
The "Year of the Strong Grid" might have to wait until 2011 or 12, if it happens at all... but that does not mean that transmission stocks are not good long term investments.
Since I'm bearish these days, a series of lowered guidance numbers and stock price drops seems like just what we need to get the market back to a level where I'm comfortable buying again.
Will 2010 Be the Year of the Strong Grid? Part II [View article]
MingDuan- The fact that *everyone* seems to be positive on JST seems like a sell signal to me. After all, there's only one way to go from here, and it ain't up (at least as far as analyst opinion goes.)
Will 2010 Be the Year of the Strong Grid? Part II [View article]
Alan, I'm not currently recommending buying anything... I think the market is heading down. But this is the type of analysis I'd use when I think we're close to the bottom.
Will 2010 Be the Year of the Strong Grid? Part II [View article]
Timing is everything. Last year was the year to own smart grid stocks after many years of pain. Strong grid should be less painful, even if this country does nto get its act together, because many of the companies are already profitable.
CREE: Why I'm Staying Away from This Sexy Investment [View article]
Call me crazy, but I thin k it's better to stick my neck out and have the market do something else than not stick out my neck at all.
I'm not sure this is being "wrong" I still think I was right that the stock was overvalued at $50... just because it wen't to a more-overvalued $60 does not invalidate that. The question is, will I be able to buy it at $25 or $30 in the next year or two?
Avoiding Losses in Alt Energy in 2011: Hedging Bets and Expecting the Unexpected [View article]
As you said, Alternative energy is not an asset class. What you say is true about the types of alternative energy that grab headlines: Solar, Wind, Biofuels, Wave power. My favorite alternative energy plays are more fundamentally sound, however: Energy Efficiency, Alternative Transportation, and Electric Transmission, most of which are value plays.
I agree about Fama and French, mostly. They have improved massively on MPT. However, their theory is still backward looking, and will not prepare an investor for future regime change precipitated by peak oil.
Avoiding Losses in Alt Energy in 2011: Hedging Bets and Expecting the Unexpected [View article]
The Headlines are mostly for fun. They'll get some readers thinking and make many more angry or self-righteous.
Avoiding Losses in Alt Energy in 2011: Hedging Bets and Expecting the Unexpected [View article]
Avoiding Losses in Alt Energy in 2011: Hedging Bets and Expecting the Unexpected [View article]
Avoiding Losses in Alt Energy in 2011: Hedging Bets and Expecting the Unexpected [View article]
Please give me numerical data as a counterargument, not emotion."
I don't follow you, Jack. What am I supposed to be arguing for or against? This is an article about thinking about the dangers we are not yet aware of, not the dangers (rare metals) that we are already aware of.
My question for you is, have you thought about what might make the resource constraints you concern yourself with irrelevant?
If you can't answer the question, and you are investing your money on the assumption that there *is* no answer, you are a danger to yourself and your followers.
Will 2010 Be the Year of the Strong Grid? Part III [View article]
I use trailing earnings not because they are more important than future earnings. Future earnings are much more important. The problem is that we don't know what future earnings are. I just don't trust "Analysts' Expectations."
Will 2010 Be the Year of the Strong Grid? Part III [View article]
The "Year of the Strong Grid" might have to wait until 2011 or 12, if it happens at all... but that does not mean that transmission stocks are not good long term investments.
Since I'm bearish these days, a series of lowered guidance numbers and stock price drops seems like just what we need to get the market back to a level where I'm comfortable buying again.
Canada's Top 10 Cleantech Firms [View article]
If you'd like to get more publicity for your list, I'd be happy to take a guest post on AltEnergyStocks.com.
Canada's Top 10 Cleantech Firms [View article]
Will 2010 Be the Year of the Strong Grid? Part II [View article]
The fact that *everyone* seems to be positive on JST seems like a sell signal to me. After all, there's only one way to go from here, and it ain't up (at least as far as analyst opinion goes.)
Will 2010 Be the Year of the Strong Grid? Part II [View article]
Will 2010 Be the Year of the Strong Grid? Part II [View article]
Will 2010 Be the Year of the Strong Grid? Part II [View article]
I'm not currently recommending buying anything... I think the market is heading down. But this is the type of analysis I'd use when I think we're close to the bottom.
Will 2010 Be the Year of the Strong Grid? Part II [View article]
CREE: Why I'm Staying Away from This Sexy Investment [View article]
I'm not sure this is being "wrong" I still think I was right that the stock was overvalued at $50... just because it wen't to a more-overvalued $60 does not invalidate that. The question is, will I be able to buy it at $25 or $30 in the next year or two?