10 Clean Energy Stocks For 2013: February Update [View article]
The monthly updates are excellent discipline. They force me to own up to my mistakes (so I'm less likely to make them again) and I also find that the reader comments and questions can point me to things I've missed.
When I published my first list (in 2007), I did not plan monthly updates, and did not have a benchmark.... I just decided to look back a year later, when I was putting together the list for 2008, to which I added a benchmark. Benchmarks chosen after the fact are useless because there is no assurance that they are not picked by simply data mining the worst performing possible benchmark.
From 2008 to 2011, I did quarterly updates. Last year I started the monthly. I find 3 monthly updates are not much harder to write than one quarterly one, now that I have a template and a tracking spreadsheet in place.
So my advice is to publish a suitable benchmark (or benchmarks) along with your list, and also commit to a schedule of updates in the article itself. An appropriate benchmark is investible (readers could invest in the benchmark rather than your portfolio) and is contains stocks representative of your investment universe.
You're welcome on the plug. The article merited it.
7 Green Stocks I Told My Sister To Buy [View article]
I don't think it's a big deal.
What do other commenters think of the fact that "TruthInside" has never left a comment about any stock other than AMRC, and all of those, like this one, are short on substance and long on implication?
7 Green Stocks I Told My Sister To Buy [View article]
You may be right. Just because it is a good buy now does not mean it won't be a better buy in 6 months. My usual approach is to start with a small position and buy more if a stock falls.
7 Green Stocks I Told My Sister To Buy [View article]
I'm down about 15% on AMRC; I tend to buy more when stock I like falls and average down my cost basis. Last year, I was in a similar situation when I told her to buy MXWL at $7.92. Now we're both up.
New Flyer Industries: Big CNG Bus Contracts And A 19.99% Interest By Marcopolo [View article]
Agreed, it would be much nicer to have 240V. For me, it's not an issue of HVAC... while I have heat pumps that run on 240V, the house has a central fuel oil boiler which needs only 120V. The limitation for me is my well - the pump requires 240V.
That said, the price point for the inverter option (at least if you already have a hybrid) can't be beat. Nice for car camping or tailgating, too.
While the battery alone is not enough to run a house for long, the presence of the battery means the hybrid's engine does not have to run constantly to provide constant power, as most backup generators do.
Western Wind & Brookfield: Time To Declare Victory And Go Home [View article]
I agree with D Lane below; the PR need not be dignified with a response. But for readers who think this is a relevant question, I answered your comment here: http://onforb.es/ZoPQuU
Western Wind & Brookfield: Time To Declare Victory And Go Home [View article]
Hey, he already gave his response, here. Too bad the PR was toned down, but I still don't think he did himself any good... just drawing attention to the Forbes article.
He did get me on one point- I should not have called Algonquin "pure play" - not because of the natural gas cogeneration projects (I like energy efficiency, although it's not strictly renewable), but because of their water and electric utility businesses.
New Flyer Industries: Big CNG Bus Contracts And A 19.99% Interest By Marcopolo [View article]
Combining two $ saving technologies like CNG and Hybridization leads to diminishing returns.
Say CNG saves 60% fuel costs, and Hybridization saves 40%. If you put them together, you're only saving 76%, (16% more than CNG or 36% more than Hybridization), but you are paying the full cost of both.
So I don't think CNG hybrids are such a game changer - the limited fuel availability of CNG, and a big cost premium for not much more fuel savings.
That's why I said NG prices would have to go up to make CNG hybrid buses practical (and all these techs are more practical on vehicles like buses which use fixed routes and are no the road many hours a day. Same goes for electric.
New Flyer Industries: Big CNG Bus Contracts And A 19.99% Interest By Marcopolo [View article]
The federal subsidies are a healthy %age of bus cost. Since that will reduce the price differential of alternative fuel buses, they can only serve to make CNG and hybrid buses more compelling, and will somewhat mitigate the advantage of CNG buses over hybrids.
But the market reaction is clear: CNG is currently the winner, hence the dominance of CNG buses. If natural gas prices rise, we might see the advent of CNG hybrids, but probably not at current low prices.
New Flyer Industries: Big CNG Bus Contracts And A 19.99% Interest By Marcopolo [View article]
Micheal, Great summary.
Alex, I've been following New Flyer since 2008, and own a pile of shares. New Flyer is fairly agnostic as to drivetrains... they sell CNG buses, hybrid electric buses, conventional diesel buses, and even sold hydrogen fuel cell buses to the Vancouver Olympics. They're developing battery electric buses as well. In terms of economics of CNG, yes, they are more economic for owners, especially with today's low gas prices, which accounts for the surge in CNG orders recently (a couple years ago, hybrid diesels were more prominent in the order book.) Hybrids are pretty much a break even once the cost of capital is accounted for, but economics are not the only push towards alternative drivetrain buses (as NF calls them.) Since buses are owned by municipalities, CNG and hybrids are often adopted in order to hit air pollution targets.
One other reason to buy hybrid buses is that they are much more plesant to ride (non of the jerky stops you may associate with conventional diesel and CNG buses.) This can increase ridership.
Western Wind & Brookfield: Time To Declare Victory And Go Home [View article]
I think the heavy trading is an excellent sign. 1M shares traded; buyers are almost certainly arbitrage funds and individuals planning to tender the shares. According to their press release, Brookfield needed 5.8M shares as of 2/11. With 4 more trading days to go, the arb funds should be able to tender 5M shares at this rate. That plus shares owned by you, me, and my other readers should easily do it.
Might buy a little more to tender myself if the price stays this low. I'm not above a little arbitrage.
10 Clean Energy Stocks For 2013: February Update [View article]
When I published my first list (in 2007), I did not plan monthly updates, and did not have a benchmark.... I just decided to look back a year later, when I was putting together the list for 2008, to which I added a benchmark. Benchmarks chosen after the fact are useless because there is no assurance that they are not picked by simply data mining the worst performing possible benchmark.
From 2008 to 2011, I did quarterly updates. Last year I started the monthly. I find 3 monthly updates are not much harder to write than one quarterly one, now that I have a template and a tracking spreadsheet in place.
So my advice is to publish a suitable benchmark (or benchmarks) along with your list, and also commit to a schedule of updates in the article itself. An appropriate benchmark is investible (readers could invest in the benchmark rather than your portfolio) and is contains stocks representative of your investment universe.
You're welcome on the plug. The article merited it.
7 Green Stocks I Told My Sister To Buy [View article]
What do other commenters think of the fact that "TruthInside" has never left a comment about any stock other than AMRC, and all of those, like this one, are short on substance and long on implication?
7 Green Stocks I Told My Sister To Buy [View article]
7 Green Stocks I Told My Sister To Buy [View article]
Last year, I was in a similar situation when I told her to buy MXWL at $7.92. Now we're both up.
New Flyer Industries: Big CNG Bus Contracts And A 19.99% Interest By Marcopolo [View article]
That said, the price point for the inverter option (at least if you already have a hybrid) can't be beat. Nice for car camping or tailgating, too.
New Flyer Industries: Big CNG Bus Contracts And A 19.99% Interest By Marcopolo [View article]
It's now an official option on a Prius http://bit.ly/YErt6s
and DIYers have been doing it for years
http://bit.ly/Xj24lW
While the battery alone is not enough to run a house for long, the presence of the battery means the hybrid's engine does not have to run constantly to provide constant power, as most backup generators do.
Western Wind & Brookfield: Time To Declare Victory And Go Home [View article]
Western Wind & Brookfield: Time To Declare Victory And Go Home [View article]
He did get me on one point- I should not have called Algonquin "pure play" - not because of the natural gas cogeneration projects (I like energy efficiency, although it's not strictly renewable), but because of their water and electric utility businesses.
New Flyer Industries: Big CNG Bus Contracts And A 19.99% Interest By Marcopolo [View article]
Say CNG saves 60% fuel costs, and Hybridization saves 40%. If you put them together, you're only saving 76%, (16% more than CNG or 36% more than Hybridization), but you are paying the full cost of both.
So I don't think CNG hybrids are such a game changer - the limited fuel availability of CNG, and a big cost premium for not much more fuel savings.
That's why I said NG prices would have to go up to make CNG hybrid buses practical (and all these techs are more practical on vehicles like buses which use fixed routes and are no the road many hours a day. Same goes for electric.
New Flyer Industries: Big CNG Bus Contracts And A 19.99% Interest By Marcopolo [View article]
But the market reaction is clear: CNG is currently the winner, hence the dominance of CNG buses. If natural gas prices rise, we might see the advent of CNG hybrids, but probably not at current low prices.
New Flyer Industries: Big CNG Bus Contracts And A 19.99% Interest By Marcopolo [View article]
Great summary.
Alex,
I've been following New Flyer since 2008, and own a pile of shares. New Flyer is fairly agnostic as to drivetrains... they sell CNG buses, hybrid electric buses, conventional diesel buses, and even sold hydrogen fuel cell buses to the Vancouver Olympics. They're developing battery electric buses as well.
In terms of economics of CNG, yes, they are more economic for owners, especially with today's low gas prices, which accounts for the surge in CNG orders recently (a couple years ago, hybrid diesels were more prominent in the order book.) Hybrids are pretty much a break even once the cost of capital is accounted for, but economics are not the only push towards alternative drivetrain buses (as NF calls them.) Since buses are owned by municipalities, CNG and hybrids are often adopted in order to hit air pollution targets.
One other reason to buy hybrid buses is that they are much more plesant to ride (non of the jerky stops you may associate with conventional diesel and CNG buses.) This can increase ridership.
Western Wind & Brookfield: Time To Declare Victory And Go Home [View article]
According to their press release, Brookfield needed 5.8M shares as of 2/11. With 4 more trading days to go, the arb funds should be able to tender 5M shares at this rate. That plus shares owned by you, me, and my other readers should easily do it.
Might buy a little more to tender myself if the price stays this low. I'm not above a little arbitrage.
10 Clean Energy Stocks For 2013: January Update [View article]
10 Clean Energy Stocks For 2013: January Update [View article]
10 Clean Energy Stocks For 2013: January Update [View article]