Tom Konrad

2009: A Banner Year for My Clean Energy Stock Picks

Why not buy LEAP puts on the Triple ETFs instead? Then the price erosion is working for you.


On Dec 28 12:06 PM fatpitch2 wrote:

> Tom:
>
> Thanks for taking the time to post your thoughts!
>
> Regarding LT hedging of market risk, do you have any thoughts on
> buying LEAP Calls on the Short/Ultra-Short ETFs? I realize that to
> some extent the same erosion of value occurs esp. in volatile markets,
> but well let me just toss out an example I have been toying with....
> SRS has a 2-year high of over $250 and now trades at ~$7. The Jan
> 2011 Leap Calls with $10 strike are about $1.30

10 Green Energy Stocks for 2009 - Q3 Performance Update

danno-

The S&P is one of my two benchmarks because I'm lazy... I usually use it as a proxy for the whole market. Since it's mostly large cap, that's probably not an ideal choice... Which benchmark do you prefer? If you have a good suggestion, I'll use it for my 10 picks for 2010 (I specified the S&P in the original article as a benchmark, so I won't change it for these 10 stocks. Pre-specified benchmarks are very important. But you're right, it could be improved.)

Regarding GE, I think its revenue is currently between 10% and 20% green energy (especially efficiency and smart grid), which is enough to make a difference in the stock price. Furthermore, with GE, you tend to pay less for every $ of green energy earnings than you would with a pure-play firm. www.altenergystocks.co...

Finally, part of the justification of the short was that it would "un-do" the non-green aspects of conglomerates like GE and JCI. Those two are greener than your average large-cap company, and so if you combine them with a short of the S&P (literally your average large cap company) you end up with something rather green.

But, hey, if you saw my article at the start of the year, and decided to buy only the truly green companies (which means you avoided GE, JCI, and TRN, and you wouldn't need the short, either) your returns would have been better (69%.)

Clearly I wish I had not picked GE, but not because it's not green enough. I wish I had not picked it because it has too big a financial arm. Ouch!

I've been writing about investing in green energy since 2006 (and doing it since 2000.) I've had to make a lot of this up as I go along. I'm not a purist- I'm more interested in two things: saving the planet, and making money. Not necessarily in that order (although I'd really like to have a planet to spend my money on.)

10 Green Energy Stocks for 2009 - Q3 Performance Update

Regarding Cree, I think it's a great company, but am going to wait for it to fall A LOT before I buy again. I don't generally have price targets; I try to look what's happening with investor sentiment. When I feel like investors in stocks are again bearish, then I will be buying. With individual stocks, I look for stocks that continue to fall DESPITE good news. One such example was Poretc Rail Products PRPX www.altenergystocks.co...

It's the same type of thing I'll be looking for with Cree, but I have to admit that I did not participate in Cree's great performance this year... I got out at $30.


On Oct 04 02:00 PM tc1 wrote:

> Tom, thank you for your updates.
> I'm still holding on to some GE, regretting i didn't sell more of
> it when it hit $17 recently.
> I made out quite well with CREE, buying a lot of it at $14 in Dec.
> 08 and riding it all the way up to $31, when its P/E surpassed 105
> and even its forward P/E looked excessively high at over 40. I was
> hoping CREE would "correct" to about $26 or $27, where i was ready
> to buy more, but, of course, this promising stock never did anything
> of the sort, soon surging as high as ~$38.50 in mid-Sep. along with
> the general market and Nasdaq this-year highs.
>
> Do you think CREE is worth buying again in the low $30s? (e.g., $32?)
> One thing that concerns me is that, whereas CREE is greatly impressing
> govts, municipalities, universities and engineering-award committees
> with its l.e.d. lighting products, and it has those big contracts
> with certain HDTV manufacturers (like LG), the general home/office
> lighting marketplace (e.g., Home Depot) sees no evidence thus far
> of CREE entering that market. I'm seeing several other brands with
> their lighting products out there. I'm concerned that CREE may not
> gain the massive revenues from that home/office l.e.d. market if
> it waits too long to enter.....

10 Green Energy Stocks for 2009 - Q3 Performance Update

Alan - There will be a new set of 10 for 2010.

Franck - This portfolio is much more conservative than an agressive growth portfolio would be. Note that it is 20% large cap (GE,JCI), and 20% Income (NFI+AGQNF.) It is only 50% "aggressive growth" and the double short did a significant amount to reduce risk (and returns) though the year. This portfolio would be better described as "Growth and Income."

I note you say "you" are covered/hedged. Is that true for the aggressive growth portfolios you're bragging about? Have they been hedged the whole year, as this one has?

Forestry Stocks, ETFs: The Back Door to Cellulosic Biofuels Investing

Barrel,
I generally agree with you, but I think the connection between climate action and forestry is not so well recognized as that between climate action and clean energy. Hence it may take linger for forestry companies to reach to political moves than it takes energy companies.

Just a guess, though, and your guess is as likely to be right as mine.


On Sep 23 09:22 AM A Barrel Full wrote:

> .......it probably makes sense to wait until we see action from the
> US on climate change before investing......
>
> Then it'll be too late.
>
> If you believe that there will be concrete action of one way or another
> on carbon emissions, then you should surelly act sooner rather than
> later. Such action looks unavoidable.

Forestry Stocks, ETFs: The Back Door to Cellulosic Biofuels Investing

I wanted companies that were pure forestry, without any downstream (paper, real-estate) businesses. The company's profile on Yahoo says "Weyerhaeuser Company grows and harvests trees, builds homes, and manufactures forest products worldwide" and I'm not interested in the homebuilding or forest products.


On Sep 22 11:39 AM Alan Young wrote:

> Why not WY? It has more forest land, and is cutting/selling it off
> slower, than any of the three you picked.

Algonquin Power Income Fund Still a Good Buy?

I understand your assumption that any pick which has performed this well was just luck, but in this case the assumption is inaccurate.

This was one of my "10 picks for 2009" which, as a portfolio, have solidly outperformed both the market as a whole and clean energy in particular. Algonquin was not the best performer of the 10, just the one I thought was most interesting. You can see my Q2 update for this portfolio here: www.altenergystocks.co...

Also note that this pick was made at the start of January, not March. Most stocks fell considerably in the 1st 2 months of the year.

On Sep 19 02:52 PM [e-mail] wrote:

> There is an old saying about even a blind dog can stumble onto a
> bone. Your Algonquiin pick is just that. Even as a rookie I have
> probably half a dozen picks that have done that well or better.
>
> Almost anyone buying anything around mar 09 has had a good return.
> The question is going forward.

10 Clean Energy Picks Enjoying the Obama Effect

See the Q1 Update here:
www.altenergystocks.co...

Sorry I forgot to link to it in this article.


On Jul 08 10:14 AM SlowOfStudy wrote:

> Please explain the last of the ten--3x$-2xspy.,

10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2009: End of Q1 Performance Update

If CREE were removed, the portfolio would still have out performed the indecies.

However, removing the best performing company after the fact is a falwed methodology for evaluating performance. If we are going to remove outliers, at the very least, we should remove one top-performing outlier, and one underperfroming outlier. If we remove both CREE and TRN, the overall perfomrance would be about -1%, still far outperforming both PBW and SPY.


On Apr 02 09:37 PM Marcap wrote:

> While the information provided is indeed helpful, it should be noted
> that the +1.6% total change in portfolio valuation is due primarily
> to the results of just one company, Cree, which enjoyed a 59.96%
> increase. Remove just that one company however from the mix, and
> the results look anything but positive. On the contrary, they would
> show a 58.36% decline which is why one should never add equally weighted
> percentages to try and make a generalization about a market trend.
>

10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2009: End of Q1 Performance Update

You're welcome, both. It's not every day that I get to toot my own horn and have people thank me for it. ;) But I'll keep this up even if next quarter I have less to brag about.

ETF Shuffles in My Portfolio

I agree. I only revisited this portfolio so soon b/c I was changing the constituents.


On Feb 20 06:11 AM ROLEXDAYTONA wrote:

> Better show how this portfolio looks from January 2008, one month
> doesn't make it a good portfolio, 1 year does.

ETF Shuffles in My Portfolio

I sold my CPTC. There's a lot more smart grid than transmission in the stimulus.


On Feb 20 07:17 AM Bidd wrote:

> Tom,
> Do you still like CPTC? Could get big bump from stimulus and looking
> for partner on the wind side,

10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2009

For those of you asking about specific stocks, I occaisionally ask for reader requests on my own website, AltEnergyStocks.com.

You'll need to foolow my writing there to submit your vote, though, since Seeking Alpha does not republish these. In general, I don't read comments here on Seeking Alpha... (i've had a little more time recently because of the holidays), so if you want to get my attention on something, leave the comment on AltEnergyStocks.

I'm currently working on a speculative stocks article.

10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2009

mkreisel: I actually prefer the ultrashorts to a real short for 2 reasons: your losses are limited, and as the market falls, the ultrashort becomes a more powerful hedge, meaning it does you more good in years when you really need it (i.e. 2009.) But to each his own.

One hedge I've used is a short call on index ETFs... the problem is that thsi becomes a weaker hedge as the market falls.


ALL:
Thanks to all the people who put WACG in his place!