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Tom Lindmark  

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  • Tesla's Non-GAAP Fairy Tale [View article]
    Excellent article. I wrote a critical piece on the nonsensical price of Tesla stock that appeared on Seeking Alpha in March. Like you, I was inundated by comments from the Tesla True Believers so I decided to skip it this quarter. While bothered by the non-GAAP games they played in their announcement I found the brokerage communitys' flogging of those numbers as real particularly egregious.

    One point in your article may need some more elaboration. When you sell a car for cash not 100% goes to the bottom line. Some of it has to go to future warranty expense. I have looked briefly at Tesla to see how much they're reviewing for this future liability but haven't found the figure. Have you noticed how much they're setting aside?
    Aug 9, 2013. 07:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is New Home Construction Lagging? [View article]
    OK, I agree you don't put up new subdivisions overnight, but that doesn't explain why this recovery in home building is so much more anemic than past recoveries. Look at the increase after the 1990 recession. Starts more than doubled then and earlier in the recovery phase.
    Jun 20, 2013. 02:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is New Home Construction Lagging? [View article]
    I agree with a lot of your analysis though I don't buy the Boomer argument - at this time. Only a small fraction of the Boomers have passed the 65 threshold and only a fraction of them have gone the downsizing route. It's going to take decades for the Boomers to unwind their housing positions and we are only at the tip of that movement right now.
    Jun 20, 2013. 01:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street, REITs And Single-Family Homes [View article]
    Thanks for the pointer, it's an excellent article.
    Jun 7, 2013. 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sequestration And Rounding Errors [View article]
    Point taken. It was an overly broad generalization. No insult intended.
    Mar 1, 2013. 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife - A Case History In Bad Due Diligence [View article]
    Well Herbalife sure is an emotional subject.
    A couple of points.
    1. I was wrong when I said that Hempton did not have an interest in Herbalife. Mea Culpa. He is long Herbalife but I don't think that invalidates his observations or the point of my post.
    2. Hempton is a pretty analytical guy. If you check out his writing I think you will conclude that he did more than just drop by a Herbalife outlet.
    3. Contrary to some of the comments, I've never seen any evidence that Ackman or any of his subordinates did in fact spend time in Herbalife outlets.
    4. This post was mostly a way of ranting a bit about the propensity of modern analysts, bankers etc. to rely on spread sheets as opposed to getting a bit of dirt under their fingernails. I think Hempton demonstrates the value of getting a granular view and Ackman the peril of ivory tower analysis.

    And finally, thanks for reading the post and commenting. It's always nice to confirm that their is life out there.
    Jan 16, 2013. 10:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing's Dreamliner Nightmare [View article]
    Correction. Alex Tabarrok is the author of the post not Tyler Cowen.
    Apr 24, 2011. 09:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing's Dreamliner Nightmare [View article]
    You might find these comments from Tyler Cowen interesting -

    I highly recommend that you follow his link to the Seattle Times editorial which provides some context for what has transpired and despite being the hometown newspaper opines that Boeing has a right to site its plants where it chooses.
    Apr 24, 2011. 09:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two Views of the Housing Market [View article]
    Interesting comments. The consensus seems to be tilted towards a negative view of the prospects for housing. I probably fall into that camp but wouldn't be surprised to be proven wrong.

    How's that for fence straddling.
    Jan 5, 2011. 10:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End of the Welfare State - Coming Someday [View article]
    Wow! I didn't realize that I was forecasting that result. Actually, I have a great deal of faith in the staying power of capitalism. I just think that it's going to take a major crisis to move the country back towards a more sustainable form of that sort of economy.
    Dec 9, 2010. 08:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Recovery Looking a Bit More Solid [View article]
    I could probably have made a case for the "dark side" and I'm not unaware of the negatives floating about. It just seems that halting though it may be, the trends indicate some growth.
    Nov 25, 2010. 08:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could the Foreclosure Debacle Benefit Banks? [View article]
    Just for the record, no one is likely to end up with a free house. The issue is chain of title and transfer of title, not that the underlying note and deed of trust are faulty. The only winners in this game will be the lawyers.
    Oct 1, 2010. 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett: There Will Be No Double Dip [View article]
    For what it's worth, I didn't write this post. SA obviously erred in attributing it to me.
    Sep 14, 2010. 08:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Growing Public Pension Monster [View article]
    Unfortunately, you're probably right. A lot of people are going to work a lot longer than they ever imagined.
    Aug 29, 2010. 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Austerity or Stimulus? G20 Sparks a Discussion [View article]
    Good question! I don't have a lot of time right now but you have to start with entitlements. Raise the retirement age by a couple of years and start laying the groundwork for perhaps means testing for anyone under 50. Get health care expenditures down to the European level of 9% to 12% of GDP. I think we're in the 16% to 18% level. That's going to take a huge amount of skin off of everyone but it has to happen. We just need a good leader that explains the reality of life. Then start whittling away at the personnel expense in the federal government. Salaries and benefits are out of control and don't match up with the private sector any longer. They need to be synced back up.

    What do you think would constitute serious measures?
    Jun 7, 2010. 09:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment