Herbalife - A Case History In Bad Due Diligence [View article]
Well Herbalife sure is an emotional subject. A couple of points. 1. I was wrong when I said that Hempton did not have an interest in Herbalife. Mea Culpa. He is long Herbalife but I don't think that invalidates his observations or the point of my post. 2. Hempton is a pretty analytical guy. If you check out his writing I think you will conclude that he did more than just drop by a Herbalife outlet. 3. Contrary to some of the comments, I've never seen any evidence that Ackman or any of his subordinates did in fact spend time in Herbalife outlets. 4. This post was mostly a way of ranting a bit about the propensity of modern analysts, bankers etc. to rely on spread sheets as opposed to getting a bit of dirt under their fingernails. I think Hempton demonstrates the value of getting a granular view and Ackman the peril of ivory tower analysis.
And finally, thanks for reading the post and commenting. It's always nice to confirm that their is life out there.
I highly recommend that you follow his link to the Seattle Times editorial which provides some context for what has transpired and despite being the hometown newspaper opines that Boeing has a right to site its plants where it chooses.
Interesting comments. The consensus seems to be tilted towards a negative view of the prospects for housing. I probably fall into that camp but wouldn't be surprised to be proven wrong.
The End of the Welfare State - Coming Someday [View article]
Wow! I didn't realize that I was forecasting that result. Actually, I have a great deal of faith in the staying power of capitalism. I just think that it's going to take a major crisis to move the country back towards a more sustainable form of that sort of economy.
Economic Recovery Looking a Bit More Solid [View article]
I could probably have made a case for the "dark side" and I'm not unaware of the negatives floating about. It just seems that halting though it may be, the trends indicate some growth.
Could the Foreclosure Debacle Benefit Banks? [View article]
Just for the record, no one is likely to end up with a free house. The issue is chain of title and transfer of title, not that the underlying note and deed of trust are faulty. The only winners in this game will be the lawyers.
Austerity or Stimulus? G20 Sparks a Discussion [View article]
Good question! I don't have a lot of time right now but you have to start with entitlements. Raise the retirement age by a couple of years and start laying the groundwork for perhaps means testing for anyone under 50. Get health care expenditures down to the European level of 9% to 12% of GDP. I think we're in the 16% to 18% level. That's going to take a huge amount of skin off of everyone but it has to happen. We just need a good leader that explains the reality of life. Then start whittling away at the personnel expense in the federal government. Salaries and benefits are out of control and don't match up with the private sector any longer. They need to be synced back up.
What do you think would constitute serious measures?
What's the End Game for a Long-Term Recession? [View article]
To all who objected to the term Tea Baggers let me assure you that it was not meant as a slight. It was in fact a simple error. I should have used the term Tea Party. Sleep deprivation is my excuse.
I have no particular animosity towards the movement and think some of their positions are worth serious consideration. At the same time, I do feel they are a bit too inflexible. At any rate, that's a subject for another post, so for now take the phrase I used as having been inadvertant with no slight intended.
Sequestration And Rounding Errors [View article]
Herbalife - A Case History In Bad Due Diligence [View article]
A couple of points.
1. I was wrong when I said that Hempton did not have an interest in Herbalife. Mea Culpa. He is long Herbalife but I don't think that invalidates his observations or the point of my post.
2. Hempton is a pretty analytical guy. If you check out his writing I think you will conclude that he did more than just drop by a Herbalife outlet.
3. Contrary to some of the comments, I've never seen any evidence that Ackman or any of his subordinates did in fact spend time in Herbalife outlets.
4. This post was mostly a way of ranting a bit about the propensity of modern analysts, bankers etc. to rely on spread sheets as opposed to getting a bit of dirt under their fingernails. I think Hempton demonstrates the value of getting a granular view and Ackman the peril of ivory tower analysis.
And finally, thanks for reading the post and commenting. It's always nice to confirm that their is life out there.
Boeing's Dreamliner Nightmare [View article]
Boeing's Dreamliner Nightmare [View article]
I highly recommend that you follow his link to the Seattle Times editorial which provides some context for what has transpired and despite being the hometown newspaper opines that Boeing has a right to site its plants where it chooses.
Two Views of the Housing Market [View article]
How's that for fence straddling.
The End of the Welfare State - Coming Someday [View article]
Economic Recovery Looking a Bit More Solid [View article]
Could the Foreclosure Debacle Benefit Banks? [View article]
Buffett: There Will Be No Double Dip [View article]
The Growing Public Pension Monster [View article]
Austerity or Stimulus? G20 Sparks a Discussion [View article]
What do you think would constitute serious measures?
Moving on From Fixed Rate Mortgages [View article]
Home Sales Raise More Questions Than They Answer [View article]
Congress: Behind the Economic Fraud [View article]
What's the End Game for a Long-Term Recession? [View article]
I have no particular animosity towards the movement and think some of their positions are worth serious consideration. At the same time, I do feel they are a bit too inflexible. At any rate, that's a subject for another post, so for now take the phrase I used as having been inadvertant with no slight intended.