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Tom Lindmark  

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  • We're Nearing Crunch Time for Oil [View article]
    Shortly after the discovery of oil in Pennsylvania by John D. Rockefeller the United States government proclaimed that we would soon run out. Since then peak oil and subsequent shortages have been forcast as often as the next recession. This is just a rehash of the same tired old argument.
    May 5, 2008. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Commodity Bull Market Over? [View article]
    Just a thought and a question. To what extent is the commodity boom a bubble? I know all the arguments for a continuation of the boom, global growth, etc. But I heard the same things in 2000 about the tech market and then again about the housing market. Starting to get just a little gun shy here.
    May 4, 2008. 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Data: Crybabies and Deceivers [View article]
    I think this article accurately describes the difficulty of finding valid housing statistics. In Phoenix, we've begun to parse the MLS data a number of different ways after seeing numerous studies that just didn't square with the reality of the market. The effort has shown a number of trends that aren't particularly encouraging. For example, we found that during the past 6 months almost 45,000 homes were delisted-that is offered for sale and then taken off the market. This is almost as many homes as the current inventory of about 50,000 that you find on MLS and to us suggests there is a very large shadow market.

    As for dapperdan's comment about ARM resets tapering off, I have to beg to differ. I've posted this link before-blog.metro-real-estate.... It takes you to an article on my blog that has a very useful graph of the timeline for ARM resets. It's from Credit Suisse so I have confidence in it. Take a look. It won't provide a lot of comfort.
    May 4, 2008. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Considering Disaster [View article]
    Gordon, please direct me to the source of your comment. I need to see the information.
    May 3, 2008. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dangerous Optimism in Homebuilders [View article]
    I'd add one other key factor that's driving the downturn and is going to mute any turnaround. That's the much tighter lending standards currently being imposed by Fannie, Freddy and even FHA. Buyers actually have to qualify and to do so prices are going to have to come down to levels that allow them to do so. Look at affordability indices for the nation and for specific locales and I think you'll see that prices still have to move downward and stay there to get buying going again. Affordability was tossed out the window during the boom but it's back with a vengence.
    May 3, 2008. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Pick-a-Pay" Defaults Deepen - Housing Tracker [View article]
    Pick-A-Pay mortgages or Option ARMs are without a doubt the next shock for the system. In my opinion, we are probably over the hump with regard to subprime loans but are just at the starting gate for Option ARMs. If you have time visit this link- blog.metro-real-estate... an article on them as well as a couple of interesting graphs which show the timetable for Option ARMs to begin adjusting and the concentration of this product by state. You can also go to my blog which is listed above and just type in Option ARM in the search box.
    May 3, 2008. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Considering Disaster [View article]
    I've been meaning to read these for some time. Thanks for reminding me and I will certainly click through here so you make a little coin.
    May 3, 2008. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Observations on Residential Housing [View article]

    Thanks for the support but as someone once said, "If nominated I won't run and if elected I won't serve." I can't remember who I just quoted so if you or anyone else knows, let me know.
    May 3, 2008. 01:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Crumbs of Good Housing News - Housing Tracker [View article]
    It's weak anecdotal evidence of a turnaround, but the FHA lenders in Phoenix are swamped. Loan packages are sitting for up to two weeks before even a first glance from underwriters. A lot might be refi's but there's certainly some purchase transactions in the pile as well. We have been bidding on foreclosures for our own account and are seeing a lot of competing bids. Many fall out as the bidder can't get financing but the demand is starting to show up.
    May 2, 2008. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Liquidity Tsunami [View article]
    Interesting, but don't you have to draw a distinction among the various efforts of the Fed. Some of the guarantees merely averted the collapse of specific firms, they didn't add reserves to the system and thus didn't add liquidity. At most a lot of the Fed's actions have just restored the liquidity that became frozen.

    To be sure they have added a lot of liquidity and let's cross our fingers on that one. Remember excess liquidity is what got us into this fix in the first place. There's no reason the law of unintended cosequences won't pop up and bite us in the butt again. I for one hope the Fed is just as quick to mop up liquidity as things improve.
    May 2, 2008. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Observations on Residential Housing [View article]
    Wow! We're at the point of citing biblical references in order to assess blame. Guys and girls, there's enough blame to go around forever. From loan officers, to mortgage brokers, to mortgage companies, to banks, to investment banks, to asleep at the switch regulators, to politicians promoting homeownership, to corrupted insurers, to stupid, ought to know better investors they all were chasing an easy dollar. Let's quit trying to assess the blame and just let the markets work this one out. Yes, by that I mean shut down the fix it mentality in Congress and just let the chips fall. Then we can all get back to being productive.
    May 2, 2008. 01:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Observations on Residential Housing [View article]
    Three things:
    1. A very good article
    2. If you want to see the chart that several of you mentioned, I have a little video on my blog that includes it. Here is the link blog.metro-real-estate....
    3. Having been on the financing end throughout the bubble, I can assure you that the level of fraud was astronomical. That's what makes it so hard to call the inning. It's impossible to look at numbers and draw conclusions since historical norms are probably meaningless.
    May 1, 2008. 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Sign of Bottom in Existing US Home Sale Prices [View article]
    Why do we continue to look for ways to "stabilise" the housing market. Perhaps we should treat it as we do any other market, in other words let it find its point of stability. History has not treated our attempts to manipulate markets very kindly. Here's a link to a post I put on my blog several months ago on this topic-blog.metro-real-estate....
    Apr 30, 2008. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Little Cheer in House Sales/Price Data - Housing Tracker [View article]
    Relative to my comment above, so you don't get lost, here's a link directly to the post-blog.metro-real-estate....
    Apr 29, 2008. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Little Cheer in House Sales/Price Data - Housing Tracker [View article]
    We've been hearing talk in Phoenix about homeowners facing foreclosure who are stripping their homes prior to walking away. Now their placing ads for the building materials. Here's a link to my blog-blog.metro-real-estate.../. It contains a copy of one of the ads. You will not believe what they're selling.
    Apr 29, 2008. 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment