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Tom Lindmark's  Instablog

Tom Lindmark
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About a year ago, a company asked me to write a daily blog for them. I told them that I’d never read a blog and had absolutely no idea how to write one but sure, if you want to pay me for it, I’ll give it a shot. It was either my good or bad fortune to start at the beginning of the credit... More
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But Then What
  • Oops!

    From Deus Ex Macchiato:

    In their latest research report, Wells Fargo (formerly Wachovia) analysts calculate that 360 CDO of ABS have now triggered an event of default – up from 343 last month. At $351.6 billion, the notional value of these deals accounts for just over half of all CDOs of ABS.

    How could so many be so wrong?

    Jul 18 5:55 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Unimpressive Corporate Earnings

    I don't follow individual stocks that much nor for that matter do I pay a whole lot of attention to the stock market on a short-term basis. There are a lot of men and women out there that do it better than I can so, I rely on what a selected few have to say.

    With that disclaimer, I would like to weigh in with an observation on my take on second quarter earnings. Based on the reaction of the equities markets this week, there appears to be a lot of bullishness brought on by reported earnings. I don't understand why that is.

    Based on my reading and analysis I've picked up from others the real lesson of this round has been that American companies are pretty good at leaning down in bad times and wringing profits out of a bad situation. The earnings of the financials were good but everyone knew that would be the case. The deck is totally stacked in their favor. The others made good money, had pretty awesome margins but are doing so on significantly reduced revenues. Moreover, most don't seem to expect all that much in terms of revenue improvement.

    I may be talking through my hat, but I don't take much cheer out of the numbers. Real growth, prospects for profitability and overall economic recovery are only going to come when those top line revenue numbers start growing. That isn't happening right now.

    Jul 18 5:54 PM | Link | Comment!
  • CRE Scary Quote Of The Week

     This quote from Jamie Dimon this morning during the discussion of JPM's second quarter results is chilling:

    Dimon: Commerical real estate is going to get worse over the next few quarters. “It’s idiosyncratic” (second time he used that word today). He says, there are good devleopers and bad developers, good projects and bad ones. Our exposure is pretty minimal. About $30 billion multi-family portfolio we got from Wamu. But it’s performing pretty well. Regional banks, on the other hand, are going to get crushed.

    Jul 18 5:52 PM | Link | Comment!
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