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Tom Luongo

 
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  • The Gold Market Is Going Insane [View article]
    Velocity of money has been falling for 30 years. During that time gold rose and it fell. As for the 'ignoring history' thing... QE1 and QE2 were very good for gold. QE3 was not. At this point the effects of QE4 are, at best, unknown.

    Instead of looking at either of these things by themselves look instead at what they are symptoms of.... faith in central planners to keep the system afloat. The reason bulls (like myself) feel that QE4 would be a positive for gold is that it would countermand the Fed's communications policy and reveal that they have no good answers to the problems.

    That (the loss of confidence) is when the majority of market players will shift in sentiment to the other side of this trade and overwhelm those pushing the price down in the paper markets. QE4 could be that trigger. So could about 1000 other things.

    RIght now central banks are 'infallible' that will not last.

    As for whatever system you use to handicap sentiment monthly and quarterly highs, lows, and closes are data. Not interpretations of data which are, at best, faulty in a market with so few real actors. THis is my fundamental problem with Elliott Waves, moving averages, RSI, MACD and all the rest.

    Keep your focus on big signals not the daily noise to get the best quality signals.. and even they are flawed at this point.
    Oct 19, 2014. 10:22 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Statoil, The Cheapest Oil Major, Is Looking Super Attractive [View article]
    Saif,

    Good overview of STO, thanks. Looking at the chart right now I would be cautious of a monthly close below $27.52 since the breakout above $29 has failed.

    If the current situation with the dollar intensifies, i.e. more USDX strength due to liquidity drying up, oil prices will get hit with another round of selling and the majors will all take a hit.

    My feeling is that things will be touch and go until after the U.S. elections. But, fundamentally, yes, I like the moves STO has made, but the key to the trade will be timing.

    Nice to see you in good form, my friend.
    Sep 17, 2014. 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nvidia And AMD: Higher Resolutions Could Trigger Higher Revenues [View article]
    @Stock This is the big point and why DDR4 support for Carrizo is so important for AMD in 2015, especially with the pushback of Broadwell later into 2015 gives them a real opportunity.

    It's also why a dual channel memory controller (at a minimum) is needed for the next iteration of the small 'cat' cores.
    Jul 10, 2014. 11:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Maybe It's Time To Go Long? [View article]
    Gold gave a two-bar monthly reversal in February... It's been basing since then. Investor sentiment is still unbelievably bearish. CEF is still trading at a 4.3% discount to NAV. If sentiment is so good, why are people not bidding up the price of a known quantity of physical metal?

    A 3.2% move on Thursday is indicative of a loss of control and repositioning by sovereign money, e.g. China.

    Look at the broader commodity complex in inflation terms and then tell me with a straight-face we're headed to $1000 gold.

    If we close above $1316 this month, that would monthly reversal bar of this three month correction and confirm the recent lows as the new bottom. Y'all need to be watching the 2 year bond market to see the real action.

    The last volatile market is the one where the Chinese own a significant portion of the issue.

    Color me not-shocked that Avi continues to peddle the bear case even though the dollar can't rally after the ECB goes to NIRP and backdoor QE while the Fed nominally tapers.
    Jun 22, 2014. 11:56 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD: Mobile Kaveri And Semi-Custom Better Explained [View article]
    Justin,

    If our forensics into mobile Kaveri dual graphics is correct, then the performance 'mixed bag' was due to clock normalization of the dGPU with that on board the Kaveri APU. An R7 250 added in was downclocked to 720MHz by the driver to match that of the Kaveri GPU.

    This disparity between clock rates is lower with the mobile parts and therefore as drivers mature dual graphics should work better on the mobile platforms. We'll never see this benchmarked in the tech press b/c they have the narrative they want, and AMD's marketing guys are hopeless -- or under funded. Either way it amounts to the same thing.
    Jun 19, 2014. 07:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid This Well-Known Chipmaker [View article]
    @Kasteel Please read my article where I address this subject directly and you can see the math for itself.

    Now project better ASPs and margins for discrete video cards, both retail and professional, and the whole picture is completely different. You are free to not believe in the turn around story but if you do it is not based on the numbers but rather a perception of what you think the numbers mean. That's your choice but IMO you are missing the point on what could easily be the biggest winner in tech over the next two years... that's how far your analysis is off.

    here's the article that touches on the margin story.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 14, 2014. 02:16 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid This Well-Known Chipmaker [View article]
    @Kasteel

    And if you did the basic research you would know that gross margins are expected to drop with the change in business model to capture higher net margins (the point of any organization) over a longer period of time.

    That's the semi-custom model. Moreover, the R&D expenditures are down because the model is designed around working with the client, cf. Sony, MSFT, to share research expenses. Couple that with chips built around portable IP blocks which can be mixed and matched creates a multitude of customized solutions for individual clients.

    Lastly,

    "I do believe companies need to spend money to make deals. In the case, you said AMD would have spent nothing, which is wrong IMO. I guess the company decreased at least, its margins to get the deal with MSFT and SONY. "

    This is flat out wrong. CFO Devinder Kumar has stated on the record that the console wins will be accretive to net margins up to the 'high teen %' as production of the chips stabilizes and optimizes.

    AMD is not just turning things around by cutting costs. It has fundamentally altered its business model from that of a traditional capital-intensive chip maker to more of a licensee approach and as such using the old gross margin trickle down analysis is simply inappropriate.

    Hence, I would tell you to cover your shorts or at least keep your sell-stops tight.
    Apr 14, 2014. 10:18 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD - Building Foundations For Mantle And Shareholders [View article]
    @Arvin the WinXP upgrade path is a great opportunity for new budget performance PC sales. We'll see how that shakes out. Good point.
    Mar 21, 2014. 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD - Building Foundations For Mantle And Shareholders [View article]
    @e92 Those are really impressive improvements. Now, imagine those numbers having come out in mid-January. We knew it was just a matter of the technology improving and you gave us some proof. The rest of the tech press frankly cannot be bothered except to reinforce their own biases.

    What matters now is sales. And it looks like Kaveri, despite people holding their noses, is priced properly. The longer that persists the better it is for AMD.
    Mar 21, 2014. 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD - Building Foundations For Mantle And Shareholders [View article]
    @asH9 Cool. I have that Mobo for both Kaveris.... good board. Thanks!
    Mar 21, 2014. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD - Building Foundations For Mantle And Shareholders [View article]
    @asH9 I've pushed my 7850k to 1062MHz on my water cooler with no problem. Stability was iffy with my memory though... Kingston HyperX 2400MHz.. I think the timing is too wide. I downclocked it and it works fine.

    What's the CAS timing on your Radeon 2400 sticks?
    Mar 21, 2014. 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD - Building Foundations For Mantle And Shareholders [View article]
    @Xtian I wouldn't pair a Kaveri with an R9 for today's market. If you're thinking about future-proofing a bit with newer games utilizing both GPUs independently, then maybe.

    But, still they aren't really a fit. An Athlon x4 370 plus R9 is better value.

    I like Gigabyte motherboards, they work really well. If you do go with a Kaveri, look into memory timings @ 2400MHz. I had real stability problems with mine which disappeared when I downclocked the memory to 2133MHz.

    I haven't had the inclination to play with timings/NB voltages/etc. to tweak the 2400MHz memory.
    Mar 21, 2014. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD - Building Foundations For Mantle And Shareholders [View article]
    @Techno I play Diablo III at 1080p, high settings on my 7700k. I did some benchmarks last night with FRAPS and got 33FPS during heavy combat. 2133MHz memory. I OC'd the GPU to 862MHz and the performance went up to around 39 FPS. But, these were just one-offs. Need to do more rigorous testing.

    I'm going to go through and OC both of my Kaveris at some point under a Dual Graphics load. I'm waiting for AMD to include the R7 250x on the dual graphics list for Kaveri. It should be doable for that part if they are, indeed, downclocking the discrete card, especially the 512 shader variants.
    Mar 21, 2014. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD - Building Foundations For Mantle And Shareholders [View article]
    @Tech, Kj, Stephen, Stocks et.al. Thanks for the kind words. Today's open is very strong and if it holds the stock could/should pop next week. There's room to tack on another $0.25 to $0.30 from yesterday's close based on monthly average moves.
    Mar 21, 2014. 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD - Building Foundations For Mantle And Shareholders [View article]
    @rav I too haven't paid Charlie the $1000 for total access, but that article on NVDA was nearly worth it to me. Nearly. It shouldn't be too hard to guess, though, given what we know about how inappropriate for its intended markets the Tegra K1 is.

    Why else would NVDA go from competing in a mass market arena with decent margins, tablets and phones, and move to an OEM nightmare like cars?

    Anyone who has ever worked for an auto OEM knows that the margins are non-existent and you can only make it on volume.

    FYI, I do pay Charlie for the intermediate subscription.
    Mar 21, 2014. 03:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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