Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Tom Luongo  

View Tom Luongo's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Gazprom - New Mideast Contracts Could Result From Syrian Bombing Campaign [View article]
    @Steven Yes, a political settlement will likely happen quickly. Also, understand that Russia and Iran are now strategic partners. Gazprom's Alexei Miller made it clear the other day that Iran will not be adding significantly to European gas supply anytime soon.

    I'm taking Miller at his word, and it supports what you said about Iran 'owing' Russia. And this is one of those ways Russia gets repaid.

    And the U.S. won't like any of this one bit. The bigger question isn't whether the U.S. buckles but whether the U.S. has any effective say left in the matter at all?

    I'm more worried about the Saudis doing something incredibly stupid and provoking a wider conflict than I am about the U.S. I think we're still looking for a way to save face and salvage what we can. The Saudis position is much more existential.

    Putin's approval ratings here in the U.S. are already rising. But, where he needs improved press is in Europe. If Russia can stabilize the region and staunch the flow of refugees Putin will be very popular in Europe, which will ensure Nordstream and Turkstream happen, at a minimum.
    Oct 25, 2015. 02:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gazprom - New Mideast Contracts Could Result From Syrian Bombing Campaign [View article]
    Gazprom has traded between 130 and 160 Rubles per share for three years. The drop is all Ruble-related. So, if you think the Ruble is going to 100, which I don't, then OGZPY is a sell, otherwise it's a collection of some of the most under-valued assets due to political risk in markets today.

    The likely scenario is to continue bouncing between $4 and $5 until sanctions are lifted by the EU. If Nordstream-2 goes off without a hitch, and it looks like it is since construction is underway, then that would signal EU leadership is done playing by the U.S.'s diktats and forging an independent energy policy.

    Steve, in answer to your rhetorical question about Russia siding with Iran that's easy. It puts more pressure on Saudi Arabia's already tenuous nee disastrous financial situation and stabilizes all of central Asia for growth.... part and parcel with China's new silk road projects. And it restores Iran as a major power broker in the region as opposed to the Saudis. The Russians, having free-floated the Ruble are not hurting as much from low oil prices like the Saudis that are still pegged to the dollar.

    There is plenty of trade between Russia and Iran possible aside from oil. Think uranium, defense, IT.

    Once Syria's been mopped up, Ukraine will resolve itself, with the Donbas acceding to the Russian Federation.

    But, for now, Gazprom, in dollars, is a yield play at best.
    Oct 22, 2015. 04:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CatchMark Timber Trust Is Poised To Profit [View article]
    @Pink While I love SE US timber as a long term play, we're more likely looking at at supercycle in the USDX than in housing starts and that's not 'good eats' for RE investors.

    In fact I would be net short real estate in general for the next 5 years while looking for gems in specific areas of the country that could do well.

    Timber is a contrarian play while commercial property gets crushed but the whole sector will be under pressure as capital flows back out to Europe, Russia and China thanks to a stronger dollar and a flatter yield curve.

    Good luck all.
    Sep 30, 2015. 10:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pretium Resources: Reports A Third UG Infill Drill Results For The Brucejack Project [View article]
    FNV is a possibility since Pierre Lasonde already has money in PVG. The big question is when gold turns around, which isn't quite yet. But, when it does PVG should quickly outperform the rest of the mining sector.
    Aug 20, 2015. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EU's Gazprom Market Abuse Investigation Should Be A Slam Dunk [View article]
    @Puma Of course Washington is behind this. They are behind every idiotic move the EU has made in the past 2 years vis a vis Russia.

    Putin is playing a very smart delaying game allowing the sanctions to further hollow out the EU economy and deteriorate its banking system while pivoting east and targeting weak NATO assets like Turkey and Greece who have been thrown under the bus by the US/EU.

    This anti-trust suit is naked payback for Russia courting Greece and the EU has no leverage.
    May 12, 2015. 09:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EU's Gazprom Market Abuse Investigation Should Be A Slam Dunk [View article]
    Yes. They are. And while the case may be a slam dunk, what is the EU going to do? Tongue wag, is what. And then they'll pay up because all that matters here is the leverage and Gazprom/Russia has it and the EU doesn't.
    Apr 23, 2015. 08:51 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Market Is Going Insane [View article]
    Velocity of money has been falling for 30 years. During that time gold rose and it fell. As for the 'ignoring history' thing... QE1 and QE2 were very good for gold. QE3 was not. At this point the effects of QE4 are, at best, unknown.

    Instead of looking at either of these things by themselves look instead at what they are symptoms of.... faith in central planners to keep the system afloat. The reason bulls (like myself) feel that QE4 would be a positive for gold is that it would countermand the Fed's communications policy and reveal that they have no good answers to the problems.

    That (the loss of confidence) is when the majority of market players will shift in sentiment to the other side of this trade and overwhelm those pushing the price down in the paper markets. QE4 could be that trigger. So could about 1000 other things.

    RIght now central banks are 'infallible' that will not last.

    As for whatever system you use to handicap sentiment monthly and quarterly highs, lows, and closes are data. Not interpretations of data which are, at best, faulty in a market with so few real actors. THis is my fundamental problem with Elliott Waves, moving averages, RSI, MACD and all the rest.

    Keep your focus on big signals not the daily noise to get the best quality signals.. and even they are flawed at this point.
    Oct 19, 2014. 10:22 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Statoil, The Cheapest Oil Major, Is Looking Super Attractive [View article]

    Good overview of STO, thanks. Looking at the chart right now I would be cautious of a monthly close below $27.52 since the breakout above $29 has failed.

    If the current situation with the dollar intensifies, i.e. more USDX strength due to liquidity drying up, oil prices will get hit with another round of selling and the majors will all take a hit.

    My feeling is that things will be touch and go until after the U.S. elections. But, fundamentally, yes, I like the moves STO has made, but the key to the trade will be timing.

    Nice to see you in good form, my friend.
    Sep 17, 2014. 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nvidia And AMD: Higher Resolutions Could Trigger Higher Revenues [View article]
    @Stock This is the big point and why DDR4 support for Carrizo is so important for AMD in 2015, especially with the pushback of Broadwell later into 2015 gives them a real opportunity.

    It's also why a dual channel memory controller (at a minimum) is needed for the next iteration of the small 'cat' cores.
    Jul 10, 2014. 11:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Maybe It's Time To Go Long? [View article]
    Gold gave a two-bar monthly reversal in February... It's been basing since then. Investor sentiment is still unbelievably bearish. CEF is still trading at a 4.3% discount to NAV. If sentiment is so good, why are people not bidding up the price of a known quantity of physical metal?

    A 3.2% move on Thursday is indicative of a loss of control and repositioning by sovereign money, e.g. China.

    Look at the broader commodity complex in inflation terms and then tell me with a straight-face we're headed to $1000 gold.

    If we close above $1316 this month, that would monthly reversal bar of this three month correction and confirm the recent lows as the new bottom. Y'all need to be watching the 2 year bond market to see the real action.

    The last volatile market is the one where the Chinese own a significant portion of the issue.

    Color me not-shocked that Avi continues to peddle the bear case even though the dollar can't rally after the ECB goes to NIRP and backdoor QE while the Fed nominally tapers.
    Jun 22, 2014. 11:56 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD: Mobile Kaveri And Semi-Custom Better Explained [View article]

    If our forensics into mobile Kaveri dual graphics is correct, then the performance 'mixed bag' was due to clock normalization of the dGPU with that on board the Kaveri APU. An R7 250 added in was downclocked to 720MHz by the driver to match that of the Kaveri GPU.

    This disparity between clock rates is lower with the mobile parts and therefore as drivers mature dual graphics should work better on the mobile platforms. We'll never see this benchmarked in the tech press b/c they have the narrative they want, and AMD's marketing guys are hopeless -- or under funded. Either way it amounts to the same thing.
    Jun 19, 2014. 07:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid This Well-Known Chipmaker [View article]
    @Kasteel Please read my article where I address this subject directly and you can see the math for itself.

    Now project better ASPs and margins for discrete video cards, both retail and professional, and the whole picture is completely different. You are free to not believe in the turn around story but if you do it is not based on the numbers but rather a perception of what you think the numbers mean. That's your choice but IMO you are missing the point on what could easily be the biggest winner in tech over the next two years... that's how far your analysis is off.

    here's the article that touches on the margin story.
    Apr 14, 2014. 02:16 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid This Well-Known Chipmaker [View article]

    And if you did the basic research you would know that gross margins are expected to drop with the change in business model to capture higher net margins (the point of any organization) over a longer period of time.

    That's the semi-custom model. Moreover, the R&D expenditures are down because the model is designed around working with the client, cf. Sony, MSFT, to share research expenses. Couple that with chips built around portable IP blocks which can be mixed and matched creates a multitude of customized solutions for individual clients.


    "I do believe companies need to spend money to make deals. In the case, you said AMD would have spent nothing, which is wrong IMO. I guess the company decreased at least, its margins to get the deal with MSFT and SONY. "

    This is flat out wrong. CFO Devinder Kumar has stated on the record that the console wins will be accretive to net margins up to the 'high teen %' as production of the chips stabilizes and optimizes.

    AMD is not just turning things around by cutting costs. It has fundamentally altered its business model from that of a traditional capital-intensive chip maker to more of a licensee approach and as such using the old gross margin trickle down analysis is simply inappropriate.

    Hence, I would tell you to cover your shorts or at least keep your sell-stops tight.
    Apr 14, 2014. 10:18 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD - Building Foundations For Mantle And Shareholders [View article]
    @Arvin the WinXP upgrade path is a great opportunity for new budget performance PC sales. We'll see how that shakes out. Good point.
    Mar 21, 2014. 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD - Building Foundations For Mantle And Shareholders [View article]
    @e92 Those are really impressive improvements. Now, imagine those numbers having come out in mid-January. We knew it was just a matter of the technology improving and you gave us some proof. The rest of the tech press frankly cannot be bothered except to reinforce their own biases.

    What matters now is sales. And it looks like Kaveri, despite people holding their noses, is priced properly. The longer that persists the better it is for AMD.
    Mar 21, 2014. 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment