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Tom Luongo

 
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  • Miserable Housing Data Propels Gold Back To $1400 [View article]
    @American if foreign CB's are not buying USTs anymore than it needs to fall by 100% right now, otherwise the Fed is monetizing the entire load, which it basically is now.
    Aug 24, 2013. 02:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Miserable Housing Data Propels Gold Back To $1400 [View article]
    @BigC Overall, they can't. The question is how they handle the next few months. The Fed-speak at Jackson Hole yesterday discussed exiting QEIII/IV in the following order (H/T to Zerohedge)
    http://bit.ly/18bcaqD

    1) Exit UST purchases
    2) Sell UST portfolio
    3) Sell older MBSs
    4) Exit MBS purchases

    This is a recipe for complete disaster. Honestly the smart thing would be to stop MBS purchases and shift the buying to USTs soak up selling from ASEAN for as long as China is willing to backstop their selling (my Thesis as to what's going on) and slow down the rate rise, allowing Western Insurance Cos., Pensions, and Annuities a chance to come in and begin supporting bonds at higher yields.

    That's the best first step but it will set off an interest rate and derivative nightmare if the 10 year crosses 3.5% according to some and also be an admission that the dollar is toast unless they let the gold price rise to begin reflecting the actual supply of them.

    And, frankly, that option stinks as well. But, it's better than letting the 10 year go to 5% by year end.
    Aug 24, 2013. 02:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Miserable Housing Data Propels Gold Back To $1400 [View article]
    @bigC Thanks for the comment. I just read through a couple of great articles by Dave Kransler on the housing numbers and he very clearly lays out why existing home sales are a lagging indicator of the RE market and why we should see a major downturn in that number next month.

    Because, as we all know, interest rates and mortgage applications have nothing to do with one another. *rolls eyes*

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 24, 2013. 01:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Miserable Housing Data Propels Gold Back To $1400 [View article]
    @Cadgas One more thing. China didn't start selling USTs until June. The selling in EMs began in February as I pointed out months ago, if not for China in Feb/March/April rates would be well over 3% on the 10 yr and gold would have never broken below $1400.

    The Chinese, savvily, waited for the West to hang themselves, sending a couple of thousand of tons of gold to them at cut-rate prices before stepping in to support their trading partners in ASEAN.
    Aug 24, 2013. 12:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Miserable Housing Data Propels Gold Back To $1400 [View article]
    @F&G You don't take the contrarian view. Yours is the dominant view of the markets, expressing the faith in Keynesian and MMT economics mixed with a central bank that can fix the whims of animal spirits.

    And, no you didn't call the people who clicked the 'follow' button idiots, but you may as well have.
    Aug 24, 2013. 12:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Miserable Housing Data Propels Gold Back To $1400 [View article]
    @American nice deflection about popularity. Most of that activity has occurred after I've been 'proven' to have a miserable track record. I'm not saying they were right to do so, only that they found what I had to say worthwhile enough to follow what I said in the future, even if only to do the exact opposite.
    Aug 24, 2013. 12:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Miserable Housing Data Propels Gold Back To $1400 [View article]
    @American and yet bank credit stays flat to negative, hovering at $10 trillion. Any post-recovery high in home sales is still just bottom bouncing. And selling old homes, like selling old cars, is not a sign of increasing production and economic expansion. So, if yours is a growth position you might want to check that thesis at the door. And if the recovery is here than why are excess reserves at the Fed at an all-time high as well?

    Home builder stocks are leading the way down. Car sales discounts are at the highest as a percentage of MSRP as they have ever been, hence, this uptick in rates is affecting sales in that total financing costs are staying the same, ie. higher rates on lower principles.
    Aug 24, 2013. 12:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Miserable Housing Data Propels Gold Back To $1400 [View article]
    @Carl I applaud your trading acumen and congratulate you on your success. I love to see anyone make money accurately trading. Thanks for sharing.
    Aug 24, 2013. 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Miserable Housing Data Propels Gold Back To $1400 [View article]
    @Fish exactly. The physical gold price is a reflection of this situation. The paper market unwind is not complete yet. When it is gold will rebalance the US's balance sheet.
    Aug 24, 2013. 10:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Miserable Housing Data Propels Gold Back To $1400 [View article]
    @Sufiy The 'A-Team' has been calling for this all through this 2 year correction b/c they are smart enough to know that gold is so important that only the very best should attempt to trade it and that if you believe in the fundamental story then you should just stay the course and shore up personal balance sheet for when it is over.

    it's cost them some credibility with the marginal investor who does not understand/resists the big picture, but it was the right call for them to make. I made that same choice even though the market was moving against me.
    Aug 24, 2013. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Miserable Housing Data Propels Gold Back To $1400 [View article]
    @F&G Nearly 1100 people must be complete idiots. Nice way to build relationships.

    Actually if you look closely at my archive you will see a number of statements which have been spot on correct and these are far bigger issues than what happened in the paper gold markets for a few months. These are foundational shifts in the global economy.
    1) If gold broke below $1525 it would ignite a firestorm of physical buying that will begin the next leg of the bull market higher.
    2) The Cyprus bail-in would prompt capital flight out of Europe and a run on the bullion banks. ABN Amro and Rabobank have defaulted on their allocated gold accounts.
    3) Foreign EM CB's would have to stop buying USTs by the summer in the face of dollar strength once they chose sides between them and China. TIC-Tock goes the Gold Clock.
    4) The Fed will talk tough about Tapering but will in the end not do so for any length of time. They've been talking taper since May. Actually they've been talking about ending QE since January. It's August. Still waiting.
    5) The Bear Market in USTs began last July and has now intensified. The sell-off on March 1st of this year was a major clue as to what bond traders really think of the situation.
    6) In April I said the TIC report would show distribution of USTs when the reports came out.
    7) If gold were to break down below $1400 per ounce it would begin the process of breaking the COMEX. JPM's out of gold, beggaring daily committments from Scotia-Mocotta and HSBC.

    Wah. The price of gold dropped and put in a near-term bottom. Was I wrong about the price movement this year? Yes. Was I right about the consequences of that price move? Yes. Did I not say also that I underestimated the resolve of the central planners to attempt to break the gold market? Yes.

    Will it matter in 2 years? No. Everyone who listened to my original advice to buy with their savings an amount of gold at the end of each calendar month to maintain a portfolio allocation that they are comfortable with (5-25% or more depending on your risk tolerance) is in a fine position today.

    This is not a bear market. This is a bear wave within a major bull market that will reshape the financial world as we know it.
    Aug 24, 2013. 10:51 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Miserable Housing Data Propels Gold Back To $1400 [View article]
    @Cagdas And yet people keep coming here to read what I write and keep clicking the 'follow' button. When you go back and actually parse my posts properly you will see that I never advocated doing anything other than buying physical gold and silver as a form of savings for when this period was ready to unfold.

    Now, we're here. TIC report negative, physical inventories at historic lows and the big guys all long gold on the COMEX while the idiot hedge funds are on the wrong side of the trade with an historic short position and near record low OI.

    We've been over what happened. Everyone has their theories but the truth is plain to see. Gold is the antithesis of speculation.
    Aug 24, 2013. 10:38 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Miserable Housing Data Propels Gold Back To $1400 [View article]
    @F&G I get to be right for 12 years and wrong for 6 months. I'll take that track record and the 500+% profit I've made on my physical G&S every time.
    Aug 24, 2013. 10:34 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Miserable Housing Data Propels Gold Back To $1400 [View article]
    @June True. But, the pit traders knew what was going on.
    Aug 24, 2013. 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 33.........  [View instapost]
    @IT or have been tipped off by TPTB. ;)
    Aug 23, 2013. 10:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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