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Tom Luongo

 
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  • Will The Fed Spike The Gold And Silver Rally? [View article]
    @Rock A better world would be transacting in Bitcoin and saving in gold. There is a difference between currency and money in that sense, as I've talked about in the past.

    Bitcoin is brilliant in that it allows capital to go where it wants to go, not where the Central Banks want it to go. Once it gets there it can then do what it needs to do.
    Aug 23 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 33.........  [View instapost]
    @IT The loss of control is occurring in SE Asia. Last night's bloodbath is spilling over today. Watch the 10 yr yield after POMO ends. Right now it's down at 2.88% but it wants to run to 3%

    Against this backdrop Gold could run to $1400 by tomorrow's close.
    Aug 22 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 33.........  [View instapost]
    This is a nothing day until the Fed minutes are out. Nothing interesting ever happens until the release... then we watch an episode of "Algos Gone Wild" for a bit and then the markets close near VWAP. :)

    If that doesn't happen then it will prick up my ears, as it were.
    Aug 21 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 32.........  [View instapost]
    @Tampat Put simply if QE has had no effect on the market then what was the freaking point?

    Of course a lot of that money made its way into the equity markets. A simple yield spread argument over the 1 yr UST so-called risk-free return makes that point quite convincingly. Add in other central bank machinations, the devaluation of the Yen springs to mind, and we can even have a market without fundamental strength break all-time highs.

    the Shiller P/E ratio tells you quite clearly that this is a liquidity-driven rally.

    http://bit.ly/QqZ06c

    Those that want to quantify everything and treat markets like lab experiments are in serious trouble in the long run. Markets are probabilistic not predictive.

    Most everything else is simply noise.

    Oh, and for F&G the bull run in INTC is way past over, about 12 years now. A look at the monthly chart is a new downtrend after a failed breakout, which took no less than 3 attempts to accomplish against the backdrop of a huge general market rally. With the 10 year back over 2.8% and staring at 3.5% do you really want to be in INTC at $22.28?

    INTC is a trade not a yield investment. Buy a weekly bullish breakout near $19-20 and sell near $25.

    The business model sucks, the product line is all wrong for the future and its CPU designs have nowhere to go now that they've push down to 14nm and can't use process scaling to boost IPC/watt/mm^2.

    Long-term AMD and ARMH will eat INTC's margins. 65% gross margins are a market anomaly.
    Aug 21 11:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Fed Spike The Gold And Silver Rally? [View article]
    @Winning True and it is a possibility but to take the counter-argument if they do that to defend the dollar the capital flight from Asia will be even stronger and yields will spike probably close to 4% on the 10 year.

    That will break a lot of interest-rate swap derivatives.

    So, if they are going to do that, it'll be the shortest and most effective advertising campaign of all time. But, they may do it anyway as you say.
    Aug 21 08:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Fed Spike The Gold And Silver Rally? [View article]
    @Big I expect that's the tack Merkel will continue to take right up til re-election... then once secured she'll go all gooey on more bailouts for Southern Europe as a means to economically conquer them.
    Aug 20 04:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Fed Spike The Gold And Silver Rally? [View article]
    @precious happy to help. :)
    Aug 20 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Fed Spike The Gold And Silver Rally? [View article]
    @Precious ZH makes the salient point that the Fed is creating repo collateral stress with all of this bond buying, but there are two things to consider:
    1) Fresh selling out of China/Japan/EMs is giving them cover to hold rates relatively stable. So, there's still plenty of room for them to continue buying
    2) QE can just morph into buying other things and forcing the PD's to hold the bonds they buy at auction while they go out and buy up agency debt, stocks, muni bonds, etc. cf. BoJ.

    Either way this is why I think watching total Fed credit is the key to understanding what is actually happening versus what the Fed is saying.
    Aug 20 12:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Fed Spike The Gold And Silver Rally? [View article]
    @Recusant In the long run because the ECB marks its gold to market its loyalties will be drawn eastward along with Russia and China as they will have 1) all of the gold and 2) be looking to reboot the global monetary system with some form of gold backing.

    Why do you think China and Russia are buying all of this gold? London shipped out 1300 tons this summer to points east. Moreover, I'm no fan of any politician but really is Putin any more meglomanical than any recent U.S. President?

    We would all do well to remember that the press on every side is completely bought and paid for and take everything we hear with more than just a grain of salt. Simply put, Putin is vilified here in the US because he refuses to act in OUR best interest. When in reality he is doing things that are a convenient overlap between what is best for Putin and Russia, and those things are not in the U.S.'s best interest.

    Europe will need a much higher gold price to extricate itself from its debt load, and once that process begins -- and a repudiation of US debt by foreign creditors is the most important step in the process -- we will see the ECB cozy up to Russia and China more officially than they already have.

    Frankly, the best news I've heard, monetarily, in a while is Germany recognizing Bitcoin as a functional currency. Talk about a runaway train aimed at the heart of the financial system
    Aug 20 12:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Fed Spike The Gold And Silver Rally? [View article]
    @alibaba See Gigem's reply. See also my 'TIC-tock' articles on the subject. With capital flight resuming out of SE Asia there will be even more selling of USTs to defend their currencies.

    What do you think the Chiang Mai Agreement is all about? These are China's biggest trading partners now, they will help fund regional stability.
    Aug 20 09:30 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Fed Spike The Gold And Silver Rally? [View article]
    @fish and even with the banks being 're-capitalized' they are still not lending. As you so eloquently put it last week...

    Rock <--- Fed --> Hard Place

    The debt ceiling fight will be a non-issue. The money will flow. The Repuglicans will put up a bit of a show, Rand Paul will continue to score political points for a 2016 run, and the limit will be raised... a lot.

    I'm expecting one of these G20 meetings to formally rebuke the U.S.'s policy and be the 'Euro-moment' where the ECB jumps ship and sides with Russia and China. Merkel is simply trying to hold off a crisis until after the election. Then we can get down to serious reality shifting -- new bailout for Greece, etc.

    The biggest issue for the gold market is Summers becoming Fed chief, which is what Obama's handlers seem to want. Summers was the architect of the gold suppression scheme and if anyone has a sequel planned it is him.

    80.64 on a weekly closing basis for the USDX is your signal of what's happening in the credit markets and where we're going to test this week.
    Aug 20 09:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The TIC-Tock Of The Gold Clock Ushers In The Next Leg Up [View article]
    @IT The energy market investigation is old news... what is news is that it's moved beyond the CFTC and to the Justice Dept. It looks like Goldman is moving to take out JPM. This is beginning to get interesting.
    Aug 20 09:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Fed Spike The Gold And Silver Rally? [View article]
    @winning I agree with Fish.... great points. I would add that they are already on pace this month to talk taper but expand QE. I'm expecting more than $100 billion in fresh credit this month.

    Euro is through $1.34.10Y yield is still above 2.8% and last night's raid on gold/silver last 10 minutes.
    Aug 20 08:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 32.........  [View instapost]
    @Fear Um... Looking at it the same way you are except from a much longer and stronger perspective, this is simply a bear wave in a longer and stronger bull market.

    The secular bull market in Equities is liquidity driven and now that the Yen is no longer doing the Fed's dirty work in the Forex markets we're beginning to see the real effects of QE show up in the gold market.

    See my last three articles on the subject to get an idea of what's really been happening behind the scenes.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 16 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 32.........  [View instapost]
    The move today and yesterday, with a weekly close above $1350 in Gold, is a very strong move that now sets the market up to gtest the June high at $1425. A monthly close in August or September above $1425 and the bears better cover because all discussion of a continued bear market in gold is nonsense.

    Brent closed above $110 today, further confirmation of a bullish breakout in dollar-bearish assets along with the close above 2.8% on the 10 year bond.

    All the signs are in place for the next leg of the gold bull market to begin. It might pause at $1425 for a little bit and even be beaten back some but this close is a strong trend-changing signal especially with Silver also closing well above $23.
    Aug 16 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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