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Tom Luongo

 
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  • China's Buying Cannot Stop Bond Yields Rising [View article]
    @tampat Thanks for the links. Dan Norcini noticed the the point about the Fed's buying last week.

    No they won't... not until after the asteroid has passed. ;)

    Remember, there are no coincidences and we are not allowed to be panicked unless it is in the direction they want us to be... right now that panic is out of gold.
    Feb 17 10:47 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Buying Cannot Stop Bond Yields Rising [View article]
    @Teutonic: Please take that first graph as a warning but not as gospel truth. It is a curve fit but it has gotten more accurate as the months have gone on.

    I expect the rise on bonds to continue and the Fed will fight it every step of the way because of the sheer number of people like you. This is why the Fed is buying $45 billion in MBSs every month.
    Feb 17 10:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Buying Cannot Stop Bond Yields Rising [View article]
    @Ashraf Thanks. Have a great day
    Feb 17 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    and note that the physical buy price is above the futures price for current issue ASE's and AGE's. That's not happened in my memory. Does anyone else remember this happening?

    Part of the argument against futures manipulation has always been the supply of physical metal. Oops.
    Feb 17 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @CF Actually CF.. go read my latest article. The TIC report clearly shows China started a mild buying program with QE III... it's everyone else, on balance, that has been selling. I'm far more worried about that.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 17 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Buying Cannot Stop Bond Yields Rising [View article]
    @june yes there was. LQD, HYG and JNK are all in the top 10 redemption list since Jan. 1st, ... along with SPY, GLD, GDX and the ones I cited.

    But the selling in bonds started last July.
    Feb 17 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @NOC Simple demand. Selling U.S. Eagles will not trigger a 1099-int to be flied with the IRS by the selling agent therefore there can be tax advantages.

    They are more liquid than other forms of gold and that's why their relative premium with U.S. dealers is higher.
    Feb 17 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @onebank Thank you for a great look at what happened back then because it does fit in with my overall view on how this market is trading.

    You perfectly cut through a lot of the noise surrounding this situation.

    Since we are at the point in this cycle where we are approaching debt saturation the money printed this time will flow directly into inflation.

    Ultimately the central banks have one tool.. printing money. When I listen to gold bears tell me that printing money does not lead to rises in the price of gold or that 'this time it's different' I laugh and say, just wait.
    Feb 17 08:54 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @Casper It is difficult. Livermore always said, 'Be right and sit tight' Even the bears in these threads will not really argue the fundamentals, just the timing of things.

    Mixing fundamentals and timing is extremely difficult. Some do it very well and I'm happy for them if they get it right -- good trades are hard to come by -- and no one does it 100% correctly. But if you want easy you don't trade gold.
    Feb 17 03:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @Abe I have zero doubt there is coordinated manipulation of all of the markets at this point. That is the nature of centrally planned economies, The euphamism for it is 'intervention.'

    I'm not here to pick a fight, call a truce or any other such damn thing. You are not the arbiter of what is quality work here at SA. And, yes, as long as the editors approve my work I can, indeed, say any damn thing I want. You are free to ignore it, roll your eyes, throw up a little in your mouth or whatever it is you do. Same as everyone else.

    Your own thesis on gold not rising above $2500 per ounce is an admission of the central bankers not allowing it to happen for some reason or another that I can't quite put my finger on. And yet, if I say that's due to non-economic trading and other tape-painting techniques, I'm a lunatic and you're the soul of reason.

    Whatever. It stands to reason that gold is manipulated as it is the enemy of central bankers and politicians. My investment theses generally accept it as given.

    Actually, you have been quite rude, and even your call for a truce is that as well. I'll not respond to you again period and will treat you the same way I treat MI, which is to say not at all.
    Feb 17 03:07 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @Noc You call your dealer and they'll walk you through the process. Or, conversely get to know your local coin dealer and work with him -- if you have one.

    I use Apmex for buying, though I've heard good things about Gainesville. If I need to sell I'll drive down to Micanopy to do so -- I'm relatively local to them.
    Feb 16 11:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @Tampat That's a great addition to Blumen's ZH article that I discussed in an article earlier in the month. Thanks!

    All prices are set at the margin which is why the paper game can be so effective in the short-term... especially when 1-2 million ounces of gold are dishoarded in 60-90 seconds on the COMEX. :)

    It's volume designed to move price to a target.

    It is important to continue noting that the physical price (and NAV of physical ETF/closed-end funds) trading above the futures price is a clear indication of paper supply causing it to trade at a discount to the physical supply... ergo, the paper price is becoming less relevant to the physical price.

    Will that condition continue? If it does then I have to conclude that the market is inherently discounting the validity of a % of the contracts in open. To restore faith in the validity of the futures market means having the front month contract trade at a premium to the cash price.

    Real world prices by dealers to buy real metal are 3% above the current futures price. That's a sign of real demand.
    Feb 16 09:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @skyzer I haven't let the gold timers get me down for years. It's easy to be bearish right now. At a certain level the Central Banks are facing the first existential threat to their existence in 100 years. Do you think they'll play fair?

    I may get the timing wrong here or there but I've never told anyone to trade anything. Here's the charts, here are the probabilities, here's the analysis. Make your own decisions and be prepared to cover.
    Feb 16 08:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @Tampat Exactly. And asking for the head of anyone that misreads a signal up or down is churlish and silly. I remember a co-worker (a very market savvy guy) coming in one day and giving me condolences during that 2006 drop from $700 to $550 and I said, "No Worries, just another buying opportunity. Nothing has changed."

    I felt the same way yesterday. If Gold drops to $1500 the cries of the bears will be even more obnoxious but it will not matter. I applaud anyone that can trade the swings successfully. Any well executed trade is a cause for celebration in these markets.
    Feb 16 07:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @Abe What more do you want? Frankly? The trade setup failed, I admitted it in the article. So, it's there for all to read. There are no reasons why it failed. I believe one thing you believe another and we disagree. If you want to believe that it failed on fundamental grounds then that is your prerogative.

    Are your trades right 100% of the time?
    Feb 16 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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