Seeking Alpha

Tom Luongo

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Tom Luongo's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @Tampat Exactly. And asking for the head of anyone that misreads a signal up or down is churlish and silly. I remember a co-worker (a very market savvy guy) coming in one day and giving me condolences during that 2006 drop from $700 to $550 and I said, "No Worries, just another buying opportunity. Nothing has changed."

    I felt the same way yesterday. If Gold drops to $1500 the cries of the bears will be even more obnoxious but it will not matter. I applaud anyone that can trade the swings successfully. Any well executed trade is a cause for celebration in these markets.
    Feb 16, 2013. 07:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @Abe What more do you want? Frankly? The trade setup failed, I admitted it in the article. So, it's there for all to read. There are no reasons why it failed. I believe one thing you believe another and we disagree. If you want to believe that it failed on fundamental grounds then that is your prerogative.

    Are your trades right 100% of the time?
    Feb 16, 2013. 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @IT Avi is only right 70% of the time. don't listen to him.

    /sarcasm off.

    A 70% track record is excellent by the way.
    Feb 16, 2013. 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @Abe If you don't like what I have to say you are free to ignore it. I will, however, continue to talk to my heart's content. If you feel your time is well spent heckling me for it. Be my guest.
    Feb 16, 2013. 06:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Intel's Haswell A Has-Been? [View article]
    @Humble I disagree. the point Charlie was making is that the OEM's are telling Intel they are out of their minds to think they can charge that much vs. $50 AMD chips or $20 ARM chips.
    Feb 16, 2013. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @John But, don't try and anticipate that event. the Gold bullies on SA will crucify you for being wrong in the moment. Yes, @Abe I'm talking to you. Gods forbid a guy on SA is outmaneuvered by the Fed.
    Feb 16, 2013. 05:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @Abe It didn't work out and prices have dropped. When a breakout fails (for whatever reason) then the response is usually of the type we've seen.

    BTW, does it feel good to gloat? I'm not the first guy to call a failed breakout in the history of markets. And I won't be the last. Does it invalidate the long-term thesis or the short-term trade setup?

    I'm still firmly convinced that much higher gold prices are coming this year and am ok with it not happening now. And if in March Gold is $1800 per ounce then will I have been vindicated?

    It was a trading call, Abe. Simple as that. Y'all tried to turn a trading call (published with probabilities of success) into a multi-year investment thesis to prove my trading call wrong and that was the argument. It has become a stupid chest-pounding ego contest that I've never been interested in participating in. But, we've already established that I'm the better man than this, if I remember correctly.

    If three years from now gold is $12000 per ounce will I gloat in public about your horrific bad call on Real Estate vs. Gold? No. Unless of course you are still telling everyone that it's all a horrible mistake. Bob Prechter is still telling people Gold is going to crash and people still believe him. It's sad. Man up and move on.

    I'm not shocked that the breakout failed. For many of the reasons you've cited --- Don't fight the Fed etc. You and I disagree to the level of control they ultimately had. I do believe you can't handle someone not being impressed by you so we have to have these little tantrums in public.

    And I posted my first article on SA on christmas day. It was a month ago. A lot can and does happen in a month.

    So, how's my call on bond prices working out? Or the recoupling of gold to the euro? or the directional link between gold and the 5/30 TIPS spread? They've all been right and they've all moved, in the short term against Gold.

    Ascribe what reasons you want to them.
    Feb 16, 2013. 05:09 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @Brian Look at my reply to @Cadgaz earlier. Decide on a portfolio percentage you want to have in gold and silver and build that position as it most advantageous for you to do so. Make regular buys effectively, putting that percentage away each month/quarter into gold. Gold may drop towards $1500 thanks to Friday's assault.

    I don't recommend GLD for any reason whatsoever. If you cannot absorb 0.4% volatility then you cannot accept gold in any form and will worry yourself to death over the day to day swings in price.

    I would rather you put your dollars in physical gold or a more liquid proxy like PHYS or SGOL.
    Feb 16, 2013. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @Cadgaz in a previous article I said that investment is what happens when savings are deployed and put to work. You interpreted that as short term thinking. Savings is effectively hoarding cash where there is no other claim against it... I think that is where you are getting confused, believing that because it is not tied up in an investment it is immediately available for use as money.

    That's a poor assumption. It is not necessarily liquid. Savings in gold are less liquid than savings in cash. You allocate your savings based on your time preference. Of course if you have no liquid cash, having your savings in gold will constrain you. I'm not advocating that. I don't have all of my savings in the form of gold and silver. Some of it is dollars for all of the reasons you cited above.

    My gold and silver, however, because they have not been pledged to some other end, like as collateral for a loan or handed to someone else to invest in a business venture with a risk-based, interest bearing future return.

    Do I need to give a basic lesson in time preference? At SA? To investment advisers? Asset allocation strategies are based on time preference. What you fail to understand is that some people's time preference leads them to put a portion of their savings, that which they won't need until the future, into gold.
    You feel all of that savings should be at work invested.

    I disagree and feel that the risk of return is not high enough versus the potential loss of future purchasing power.
    Feb 16, 2013. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Breakout In Process, Thanks To Germany [View article]
    @Stephen Nah.. I'm a big boy. I also have a lot of real investment going on... you know building a business.. only a portion of which entails my hanging out on SA doing eduction. In case you haven't figured it out you can't save money that's not on the table in the first place. Moreover, since this article was published youv'e changed your position on gold at least twice. traders trade. Most people are not traders. Most of them aren't even analysts. So, I'm not really sure who you are talking to.

    There is a real chance for a move to $1525 at this point, especially with this close. Your call about gold short-term technically last week was accurate and it broke bearish. I''m happy if you made money. Look at today's article to see what your risk/reward is between here and the end of February -- you might learn something useful. $1500 this month would be historic.

    The fundamentals have not changed so for traders like you these moves matter. I'm not a trader but as you should have figured out by now I use trading concepts to refine timing. Sometimes that timing fails. I could have held off writing this article until after the breakout to be a follow the leader but decided --consciously mind you -- to try calling it early. Hubris? probably. It burned me a bit but whatever, it was a bet. But, as we know markets don't always do what we want them to do. Trade setups fail. So, the breakout in gold is delayed. Nothing more.
    Feb 16, 2013. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @Agbug You touched on a perfect reason as to why MI's bearishness in Gold is just silly. But, He/She/It/They told everyone that the play for eh next 6 months was short gold, long silver. Then they/he/she/it closed the silver position.

    Macro Day-Trader is more like it.

    Yes, the valuations for miners has gotten silly. Sentiment is awful and this is where good value investors can come in and make some money. It helps when looking for value to have the fundamentals on your side. The trading trolls that populate my article threads refuse to understand that difference. Whatever, they are traders talking their book and bored.
    Feb 16, 2013. 12:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Breakout In Process, Thanks To Germany [View article]
    @GH I did write that before the breakdown on Friday. Check the time stamp. Always good to see people write before they think. Makes for great theater. Seriously. That's an ugly candle, of course. Extremely bearish. The comment was made before a break of the January low at $1626. Ignore Stephen he's an ugly little troll.

    I don't use TA. So you must be talking to Stephen or someone else.

    Read my latest article to see what I think of the current situation for this month's probabilities. March's will depend on how February closes.
    Feb 16, 2013. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Intel's Haswell A Has-Been? [View article]
    @Robert Thanks for weighing in with that insight. I suspected as much but do not know that company that well. It's not hard to surmise from the end-products being offered and the tactics used to protect their sales but having at least some anecdotal first-hand knolwedge helps put context to the thesis.

    Thanks again.
    Feb 16, 2013. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @Agbug How about silver dropping from $21 to $8 after Lehman Bros. That was rough. It was also a very important impetus to study harder and learn more. Guess what? I bought some into the decline and more into the rise.
    Feb 16, 2013. 11:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off [View article]
    @CF My only reason for continuing to site AGE sales is that it is indicative of shortterm tightness in the physical market which will make its presence felt in the futures' market. Nothing more.
    Feb 16, 2013. 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,314 Comments
2,163 Likes