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Tom Luongo

 
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  • Kaveri Puts Paid AMD's Long Term Design Goals [View article]
    @andreas I've been taking a much-needed vacation from the treadmill while I nailed down the art of newsletter writing. Thanks for the welcome back.
    Jan 8 03:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Thoughts On AMD Leading Into Earnings [View article]
    @Stephen I've been on an extended holiday since getting the newsletter gig with Newsmax. Was treading seriously close to burn out by the end of June and needed a break.

    Of course I've been buying into this, a fool wouldn't be. :)

    Hope things are going well. As for AMD, I really like this story.
    Jan 8 10:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Thoughts On AMD Leading Into Earnings [View article]
    @JJ Taking a look at the chart I'm eying that recent high at $4.13 on a weekly basis. If we get a close above that this week there is a gap to fill which should give fuel coming into earnings to challenge the old peak at $4.65, especially with Wall St. suitably impressed by Kaveri.

    I would lighten up into that if is occurs or buy some cheap (read Fed puts) protection.

    If the earnings report is strong and there are some notes about tablet wins for Beema/Mullins I can see a break out from there and push back to the $5.50 level.
    Jan 8 09:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Dispelling Misconceptions About AMD PC Market Share [View article]
    @Justin Sell side guys will never admit they are wrong.... until they have built the position for their clients they are being paid to build.

    AMD being cash-strapped puts them at the mercy of these guys from a stock price position.

    On the other hand, NVDA, whose future prospects are frankly awful, has a very effective trader managing their share buyback program and has been able to keep the stock afloat... for now. It's written all over that chart.

    Goo article Justin and helps to counter the water-carrying for CS and Citi that Ashraf wrote the other day.
    Oct 22 09:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices Spearheading Shifts In The Gaming Industry [View article]
    Justin,

    I am convinced MSFT was involved in Mantle. We know that they are silent partners in the HSA. Moreover, I think Ballmer's departure signifies a fundamental change in the culture there. As such, MSFT has to recognize the threat to Windows as an x86 OS and its lack of comparative advantage in mobile computing. If anyone should be AMD's biggest fan at this point it should be MSFT and Mantle fits that analysis.

    INTC's place in this is irrelevant as their graphics capabilities are just catching up to AMD's from last year, and only with its typical brute forcing performance with Crystalwell. If they want to play in this space they should back Mantle immediately, otherwise ARM providers will eat their lunch on price.

    Think about where we'll be in 9 months with re-benchmarked Kabini/Temash and its successors providing gaming performance in a mobile device that was unthinkable 6 months ago.
    Oct 3 10:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Mantle' Is The Most Interesting Announcement At Advanced Micro Devices' GPU14 Event [View article]
    @Justin Completely correct. The latency issue puts a physical limit on cooperative online gaming. Moreover, for a 1st world country the U.S. has some of the worst broadband internet access, so don't expect to see a repeat of Korea or Japan here to extrapolate online gaming potential.

    Think in terms of what technology will be best supported on 1.5 to 3MB DSL connections, because that is the connection speed for the lion's share of users in the U.S.

    So, cloud gaming for background effects? Yes. For core, e-sports, style gaming? No freaking way.

    Try playing semi-competitive LoL on a 200ms ping time. Hell, even vs. bots that's hard.

    Consoles are and will morph into more full-featured living room devices, but they will not be going anywhere. If anything they will become more cost effective as the original generation of computer gamers (like myself) get older and want simplicity over bleeding edge technology.

    And, guess what? We're the guys with the disposable income to buy these things without hocking our future. That's the sustainable portion of the market.
    Sep 26 12:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Mantle' Is The Most Interesting Announcement At Advanced Micro Devices' GPU14 Event [View article]
    @Justin I'm still adjusting my schedule to the new gig and, frankly, you're doing a fabulous job covering things.

    I will say, for the record, that I just put on a small long-AMD position. I'm looking for a weekly close above $4.00 to propel this stock higher, especially if earnings are good and Kaveri is on time.
    Sep 26 12:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Mantle' Is The Most Interesting Announcement At Advanced Micro Devices' GPU14 Event [View article]
    @justin Good stuff. I haven't had the chance yet to watch the GPU '14 presentation, but it looks to me that the totality of AMD's gaming strategy is taking shape now. The value proposition here is immense and with the standard PC market shrinking and the x86 tablet market floundering due to poor hardware/software it will take a quantum leap in performance to wake up consumers to shift their buying preferences.

    Someone brought up the value prop of a $130 APU with HSA and Mantle. Go one step further, think about a $20-30 tablet chip (ARM, x86 or hybrid) with this tech.

    So, while AMD's decision to license ARM 64 bit cores has been seen as a 'white flag' maneuver, these CPU independent technologies create a huge opportunity for AMD to supply not only consumer but custom parts as well.

    Modularity, simplicity and scale. Hmm. hard to beat that.
    Sep 26 10:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • War Drums March Gold Back Above $1400 [View article]
    @F&G Emotion? Nonsense. Simple balance sheet calculations. Gold will trade to balance out the money supply which is now guaranteed to go as high as necessary to keep the bond markets from imploding.

    That number is a helluva lot higher than anything that's been discussed here.

    My argument for gold was formulated in 2000. Nothing has changed except that now another leg has been pulled out from underneath the idea that the Fed actually knows what it's doing. The fewer that believe that the more easily gold will trade to the upside as crude manipulations in the FX markets will have less and less effect.
    Sep 18 06:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • War Drums March Gold Back Above $1400 [View article]
    @F&G No Taper as I told you would happen means gold to whatever number you can think of. This downdraft was nothing more than the Fed pushing gold down as far as they could before having to come clean on their situation. The bond market was saved today and all the hedge funds that believed Bernanke will no longer be his useful idiots.

    You'll get your equity rally because of the money printing, but it will be a pittance in comparison to what gold will do now.
    Sep 18 05:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • War Drums March Gold Back Above $1400 [View article]
    @US Agreed. And that is what is going on in the longer term view of the gold market, but for right now there is a technical war being fought in the futures pits. In the long run, yes, physical gold will win out and as long as the price rise is fought those saving in gold will protect themselves, but it never hurts to analyze what is happening in the moment to get a sense of what the market thinks now, as that, like it or not, has an effect on the price.
    Sep 4 11:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Miserable Housing Data Propels Gold Back To $1400 [View article]
    @F&G You mistake this for being a debate. It is not. Getting the last word does not qualify as #winning. It is simply just typing last.
    Aug 25 08:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Miserable Housing Data Propels Gold Back To $1400 [View article]
    @American if foreign CB's are not buying USTs anymore than it needs to fall by 100% right now, otherwise the Fed is monetizing the entire load, which it basically is now.
    Aug 24 02:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Miserable Housing Data Propels Gold Back To $1400 [View article]
    @American nice deflection about popularity. Most of that activity has occurred after I've been 'proven' to have a miserable track record. I'm not saying they were right to do so, only that they found what I had to say worthwhile enough to follow what I said in the future, even if only to do the exact opposite.
    Aug 24 12:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Miserable Housing Data Propels Gold Back To $1400 [View article]
    @American and yet bank credit stays flat to negative, hovering at $10 trillion. Any post-recovery high in home sales is still just bottom bouncing. And selling old homes, like selling old cars, is not a sign of increasing production and economic expansion. So, if yours is a growth position you might want to check that thesis at the door. And if the recovery is here than why are excess reserves at the Fed at an all-time high as well?

    Home builder stocks are leading the way down. Car sales discounts are at the highest as a percentage of MSRP as they have ever been, hence, this uptick in rates is affecting sales in that total financing costs are staying the same, ie. higher rates on lower principles.
    Aug 24 12:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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