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Tom Luongo  

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  • The TIC-Tock Of The Gold Clock Ushers In The Next Leg Up [View article]
    Nice to see that some things do not change.
    Aug 15, 2013. 05:33 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economy Is Quickly Headed South - QE4 To Follow [View article]
    @OTS Go ahead and party like its 1976. You'll see Dave is quite correct about where this is heading.
    Jul 20, 2013. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economy Is Quickly Headed South - QE4 To Follow [View article]
    Dave I do most of those things on that list above and still I can see the CPI is a nonsensical number.

    Good stuff. BTW, if you think the CPI is a messy number try charting the TIC foreign holdings report every month. What a freak show that has become. The monthly adjustments are getting bigger and bigger as it's looking more and more that foreign holdings of USTs has peaked. Once that happens QE^2 will really take place, though, to be fair at least there will be a little repo collateral available.

    Be good.
    Jul 20, 2013. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Fed's DoubleSpeak And Get To Gold [View article]
    @Tampat I would. But if you listen to Bernanke and the way this is being spun that's the argument being presented. Everyone knows the economy is still terrible. We're just so used to it being terrible now that any little improvement is to be trumpeted to high heaven. It's ludicrous and it's like everyone is trying to will this thing choked with debt back to life. But, I really think we are getting close to revealing that reality.
    Jun 26, 2013. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Fed's DoubleSpeak And Get To Gold [View article]
    @June We'll see. Bernanke has been reluctantly embracing QE for 5 years now and whenever cracks appear he papers them over. If the Fed all of a sudden becomes very Austrian about things and will allow all of these asset bubbles it's created to pop, then no one and nothing is safe.
    Jun 26, 2013. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Fed's DoubleSpeak And Get To Gold [View article]
    @pparaska Thanks.
    Jun 24, 2013. 01:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Fed's DoubleSpeak And Get To Gold [View article]
    @PParaska My default position has always been that gold is manipulated, but I am open to other explanations of what is going on or how the market is begin pushed around. It's important to keep as open a mind as possible and none of us are 100% capable of that 100% of the time.

    I thought that argument on repo collateral was a good operational explanation of what might have happened and was worth looking into. Nowhere in the analysis, however, mine or Mr. Snyder's did we ask the cause of the repo collateral shock, just noted that there was.
    Jun 24, 2013. 12:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Fed's DoubleSpeak And Get To Gold [View article]
    @Man Possible, but Bernanke was positioned as Greenspan's replacement years in advance. Yellen's a dove. O-bomb-ya threw Bernanke under the bus last week so, anything's possible at this point.

    The writing's on the wall, however, no more half-measures, starting/stopping and whipsawing of Bernanke. It's full-steam ahead on the central planning train to ensure a Democratic victory in 2016. The Hillary Cometh.
    Jun 23, 2013. 12:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Fed's DoubleSpeak And Get To Gold [View article]
    @vronaydf I have 3 nubians and am raising two Fainter/Nubian (Fabians? Nubi-tonics?) crosses to see what kind of milk they produce. Looking for the ultimate full-sized butter goat. I have Tennessee fainters for meat goats as well.
    Jun 23, 2013. 12:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Fed's DoubleSpeak And Get To Gold [View article]
    @IT Everyone in the futures market is on margin. To play that game you have to have a certain amount of equity in your position per contract you are selling. As the price moves in the direction you are on your equity goes up and your margin cushion rises. If it goes up enough for you to take on a 2nd contract then you can do that, now having just enough margin for both contracts, for example.

    If the price moves against you, then you either have to add money to your position (pure cash) to hold your position or sell the contract at a loss to you.

    Raising margin requirements in a rising market forces margin calls on those leveraged to the limit of their equity and gives the advantage to the short seller. If the price drops even a little they have to sell or face a margin call. Raising them in a falling market thins the equity cushion of short-sellers.

    And, now that the commercials (bullion banks, bad guys, pick your name) are likely net long this will make it easy for them to raise the price and force short sellers to buy to cover, thereby raising the price faster.

    Does that help?
    Jun 23, 2013. 12:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Fed's DoubleSpeak And Get To Gold [View article]
    @Nicky No we cannot say that we have bottomed. Not holding $1320 is a bearish event. In my mind simply another attempt to discredit anyone left in this market who is not bearish on gold. While gold needs to begin rising to help the Fed shut down deflation fears and get the bond market under control it is very possible that they don't have a handle on what's happening and have reaped an ugly whirlwind that could easily take gold lower.

    In times like these there are no sure things. I would have put a strong probability (90+%) on $1320 as the bottom and that has failed. So, at this point anything is possible. We're looking for a weekly close above a previous down bar's high price. That has not happened all calendar year. Every technically significant level has been defended and forced lower all year -- rank chart painting and price capping -- so, until that behavior changes this thing can go lower.

    Buy physical metal with a portion of your monthly savings allocation and wait for the technical turn around. At that point begin buying high quality mining shares, but not before.
    Jun 23, 2013. 12:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Fed's DoubleSpeak And Get To Gold [View article]
    @abegaz the money in Japan rolled out of the Nikkei and back into JGB's the moment the BoJ admitted they couldn't hit their inflation target and the 10 year posted any form of real yield. Go look at the chart of the 10 year JGB, it's been flat for 3 weeks now. Mrs. Watanabe is buying JGBs not USTs. Moreover, I suspect there is even more selling from the BoJ of USTs in Maylike there was in April. the Japanese did the heavy lifting to counter-act the Chinese refusing to buy anymore treasuries....

    We'll see what happens but so far it looks like Japan has said 'no mas' to offloading the Fed's inflation.
    Jun 22, 2013. 06:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Fed's DoubleSpeak And Get To Gold [View article]
    @Robert Any theory about manipulation of the markets in G&S are likely correct as long as you think of them in terms of the owners of the exchanges acting in their own best interest.

    I'm close to believing that this margin hike was done to set the market up to go higher now that the commercials (bullion banks) are long and the specs (hedge funds/retail -- all 5 of them) are short. Margin has been used in the past to forcibly shake speculators who could damage the bullion banks and *gasp* make money out of the Gold and Silver markets.
    Jun 22, 2013. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 14.........  [View instapost]
    @IT No, it's the other way around. Now that the specs are masively short and they are long, they will raise margin reqs to clear the path for a quick rise in price. They don't want to have to fight the shorts on the way up. Margin reqs work both ways.

    This is a very bullish sign as I noted in my article on Friday morning.
    Jun 22, 2013. 01:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Fed's DoubleSpeak And Get To Gold [View article]
    @Eagle 1) I was not wrong about what would happen if, and I made it clear that there was the possibility of there being downside risk, gold were to drop to these levels.

    I said that the physical demand would go ballistic. It has.
    I said that exchanges would fail and there would be physical defaults. It has.

    Those that were bearish gold were bearish for all the wrong reasons which is why they were argued against. If one of them had made the argument that given the market structure that there was a risk of a crash in the paper gold market to protect the futures exchanges i would have completely agreed with them.

    The only recommendation I ever made to people was to buy physical gold on a monthly basis as protection against long-term volatility. Did I recommend trading gold? No.

    Was I wrong that gold would go higher on these events? Yes.
    Was I right about what chaos would ensue if these events occurred? yes.
    Have the full effects of these events been felt in the market yet? No
    Were my critics rights about the reasons gold would go down? No.

    It's the 3rd inning of a very long game Eagle. You are free to leave the game now before it's over.
    Jun 22, 2013. 01:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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