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Tom Luongo

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  • Bernanke Sets Gold Free For Now [View article]
    @Afr " I just hope I save at least 1 reader on SA some money. "

    Shorts always use that excuse when they are playing the end of a move, the same way that the bulls use the opposite "Buy now before it doubles"

    Any idiot knows that you buy bottoms and sell tops, but y'all keep coming in here and telling us to sell bottoms.

    If gold breaks $1500 it will happen only if Bernanke and the Fed decide to crash the entire financial system. Being open to being wrong is one thing. Being stupid is another.
    Feb 27 02:16 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Story Behind Gold Demand [View article]
    @Charles See my post above. When you hoard gold, dollars, guns, food whatever, you are saving. The moment you make that saved 'stock' available for someone else to use in an entrepreneurial venture of some form -- usually converting it to the local money first -- you are investing.

    Keynesians believe that a cartel of know-it-alls know what the savings rate for a society should be rather than the market. Hence they ask the question 'Is there too much savings?' Which, in a non-fractional reserve, open market, open currency system is a complete and utter non-sequitur.
    Feb 8 08:45 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Story Behind Gold Demand [View article]
    @ignis thank you very much. It is good to remind people of what actually drives markets versus the lazy short-hand that is used to cast a story in a particular light.

    The point i was making is that I put nothing past the Fed to continue to punish savers to extremes. At this point that's what the supression of the gold price is, a form of saver's repression.
    FED: "Dammit... stop trying to hide your money from us... buy a freaking iPhone!"

    If it doesn't work they'll come after the 401k's, and systematically remove any tax advantage to owning a home and get those who own them to sell. It's called capital controls and they will take all forms.
    Feb 7 04:35 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stunning Bond Collapse Will Be Gold's Gain [View article]
    @MI A market move of comment-worthy proportions happened. So, you're offended by my writing an article wherein confirmation of something I wrote the day before occurred.

    You know for those day-trading TBT/TLT Friday's move has value for them. For those long gold, Friday's bond action has some value if a shift in sentiment is happening... ie. all bond rallies are sold.

    You're angry I wrote a good title?
    I guess if I write a boring title and non-controversial pablum then I will rise in your estimation. Well, I know what I'll continue to do.
    Feb 2 11:38 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stunning Bond Collapse Will Be Gold's Gain [View article]
    @doug: Thanks for taking the time to read and for the kind words. Dairy goats are a great investment if you have the lifestyle. One of these days I'll do an SA piece on their ROI.

    Lightening up on U.S. paper of all kinds right now is a good idea, IMO.

    Be well.
    Feb 2 04:08 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Rates Will Rise Despite Fed Intervention [View article]
    @IT The COMEX has had a problem since like 2008, frankly. It's a dead exchange walking and knows it.
    Feb 1 08:11 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Breakout In Process, Thanks To Germany [View article]
    @RJR: functionally, today, gold is not money. Today. Right now. Go pay your electric bill with gold. You can't. That does not invalidate it as a store of wealth or have value versus other currencies... but it does not circulate as a medium of exchange... hence it is NOT money.

    There is a difference. The current law makes the dollar money. Legal tender does that. Smart folks hoard gold and spend dollars.

    This is not a religion. Gold has no inherent value either. It has properties that at one time made it a good medium of exchange and now as a store of wealth the value of which in terms of circulating money is dependent on the supply of that money.

    Guys like Mike McCarthy and others make me grind my teeth when they continue to promulgate these falsehoods.
    Jan 17 07:35 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Breakout In Process, Thanks To Germany [View article]
    @Eddie: I've disclosed what I am. Dollars are money and they are needed to pay bills. My electric company won't take silver. I wouldn't give them any anyway, it's horribly undervalued.

    After that I have no interest in trading anymore. You can choose to believe what you will.
    Jan 17 01:21 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Breakout In Process, Thanks To Germany [View article]
    @whidbey: gold is the strongest currency. Ergo, I agree with everything you said except your conclusion. Gold is the only currency without counterparty risk. That's a feature not a bug.
    Jan 17 12:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Believe The Hype In Gold [View article]
    @John Gladly. There are $700 trillion in OTC derivatives that exist as a potential bomb over this market that cannot be dealt with in any way except by inflating via QE to cover the problems when they default. Insurance isn't insurance if the insurer is leveraged to the hilt and defaults before the insurance can be paid. Does everyone not remember Greece? MBIA? Lehman?

    There isn't enough money in the world to cover the rehypothecated assets and their 'insurance' contracts -- CDS's, interest rate swap hedges, etc. It's laughable on its face to think that the FOMC can stop QE when they feel like it.

    The same way it was laughable that Bernanke could fix things with a couple of trillion in sterilized QE. It didn't work to solve the problem. That wasn't the goal. The goal was to buy time and offload some of the costs onto the rest of the world.

    Thanks for the opportunity to talk at greater length on that. I agree with Jim Sinclair on the derivative mess. It's unsolvable in the face of $222 trillion of unfunded liabilities of the U.S. Treasury.
    Jan 6 10:17 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid This Well-Known Chipmaker [View article]
    @Kasteel Please read my article where I address this subject directly and you can see the math for itself.

    Now project better ASPs and margins for discrete video cards, both retail and professional, and the whole picture is completely different. You are free to not believe in the turn around story but if you do it is not based on the numbers but rather a perception of what you think the numbers mean. That's your choice but IMO you are missing the point on what could easily be the biggest winner in tech over the next two years... that's how far your analysis is off.

    here's the article that touches on the margin story.
    Apr 14 02:16 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Technology Proving Its Worth For Advanced Micro Devices [View article]
    @Digi Things are worth what people are willing to pay for them. Period. End. Stop. Econ 101 baby. Please stop trying to impose your value system (what something is worth TO YOU) on the entire market which is clearly saying something different. You are free to recommend whatever product YOU FEEL is the better value but the market decides based on what people are willing to pay what something is WORTH. And that perception of WORTH is ever changing. SO, if you are getting into price forecasting, which you were, then you have to actually use economic analysis and ask "WHY is someone willing to pay $50-60 more for a card I feel isn't worth it?" As opposed to just sitting there and whining that the cards are over-priced.

    Again, you are free (and do a public service in the market) by identifying your rationale why you think product A is better than product B but that's it. Beyond that your entire understanding of market auction, prices and the law of marginal utility is what is deeply flawed.

    It's all through your writing.

    Please stick to the technology itself. As for economics, I'm sorry, but there you are woefully uninformed about basic definitions.
    Feb 21 12:44 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Still Unclear About AMD's Future [View article]
    @gzubeck And what do you think the semi-custom business is? It's a way to sidestep Intel.

    You neglect to mention in your math example that the lower revenue/higher margin is playing right into the same fight that they've already lost. So, they might make that for one product cycle of 9-15 months. But the semi-custom console wins will bring in that slightly lower income on rising net margins for 5-7 years.

    You are right it's what money you take home as free cash flow that matters. And if those 45% gross margins require 10% more R&D and depreciation over time then where's the benefit. You get the same net income and more risk product to product.

    Don't focus on the company-wide gross margins. That's still in flux. There are still issues with the CPU/APU business that are in transition and keeping profitability on that side of the house down. We'll know how far off they are by the end of Q3 with APU and server sales.

    "It's what you net after expenses not your gross income. Unless your really big and your markets are not perversely affected by Intel at a whims notice then smaller margins can work."

    I agree with this, but this is not the point of AMD's semi-custom work. Intel couldn't provide those console solutions. So, right there is your example of a revenue stream not tied to anything Intel does and it's currently accounting for 25% of AMD's revenue and 90% of its profits. For work whose R&D is done, contracts signed with a predictable work plan and products that are in higher demand than were originally expected.

    What do you not like about that? This type of revenue forgives a bad product launch. NVidia is learning this now with Tegra. The T4 and TK1 are likely never going to be used in their original intended markets. They have shifted to try and recoup development costs by moving them into other applications -- cars, high-end tablets, Chromebooks, etc. But, if they had reusable IP blocks and more flexibly designed architectures they could build versions of those chips for little extra development cost to cater to specific client needs in very little time.

    This agility is the essence of why the gross margins will be lower but the tradeoff is more guaranteed revenue over time. If AMD had two more semi-custom wins like half as big as the Xbox One, this company would be making $0.20 per share every quarter on smaller revenues than NVidia.

    The rest of AMD's business is in flux and has questions hanging over it.
    Feb 15 01:54 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Covering In Gold Just Beginning [View article]
    @Gebby At this point no. My personal investing needs are being met by my family business and other projects. I distrust the current environment enough that I keep only play money in my trading account and it's currently playing AMD.

    I am buying physical gold and silver at these prices.
    Feb 11 10:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Early Mantle Results Support AMD's Low Power Strategy [View article]
    @Kj When it comes to NVDA, telling the truth is a no-no. I've run into problems with their IR department in the past for being hard on them and NVDA bulls are nearly as bad. I give the company props for having excellent PR and IR and if their latest products hadn't been utter failures I would give them a very good shot at pulling out of this, but I don't.

    This is nothing new. From the moment I published my first mildly bullish article on AMD I was inundated with INTC/NVDA hatred and dismissiveness.

    But the facts stand, AMD has executed and the stock has doubled from that time while INTC and NVDA have struggled to add and hold onto 20% gains in an historic bull market.

    THis is an investment site not Anandtech.
    Feb 10 06:12 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment