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Tom Luongo

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  • AMD Shores Up Balance Sheet Amid Product Leaks [View article]
    Hit AMD's website and the IR portion... it's easy enough to find if the link I gave isn't quite working. Kumar said the same things during the earnings call. Again, all of this is old news and you question it simply because you won't do your own DD but rather think we have to do it for you.
    Feb 25 09:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Shores Up Balance Sheet Amid Product Leaks [View article]
    @Inside Apple would be AMD's first customer in supply cards. FirePros are pretty much rebranded R9 290x's and sold as professional cards with much higher margins.

    So, it is absolutely in AMD's best interest to sell through to Apple first, and I'm sure that Apple secured that first supplier in the contract, and everyone else second. But, there are other shortages in the supply chain, GDDR5 after the Hynix fire for example, that may be at work here.
    Feb 25 09:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Shores Up Balance Sheet Amid Product Leaks [View article]
    @Inside Yes I did. He apparently doesn't read the articles closely... but rather just hangs out in the comment threads.
    Feb 24 10:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Shores Up Balance Sheet Amid Product Leaks [View article]
    @avatar

    Read my last article on the subject. I break out the numbers pretty explicitly and confirm what CFO Devinder Kumar told Goldman Sachs publicly.

    Now, if Kumar is lying then AMD will have to face a major lawsuit for it.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Stripping out video card sales at an average of 5% net margin the console business is easily approaching 18% net margins that Kumar disclosed to GS. But, you are free to continue thinking this is a $5/APU business.

    Sony and Microsoft have never made money on the console hardware... it has always been sold as a loss leader. That does not mean, however, that their vendors are so generous.
    Feb 24 10:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Shores Up Balance Sheet Amid Product Leaks [View article]
    @stephen He and his posse were the most vocal and dismissive of my early looks at Intel and AMD. I've noticed he's not said anything here other than the above comment here since I began covering the story again.

    I was right about Haswell and I was right about AMD. The future? Still up for grabs.
    Feb 23 11:37 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Shores Up Balance Sheet Amid Product Leaks [View article]
    @flash Excellent points and welcome to the discussion. I agree about the potential albatross of 14nm for Intel, especially when we consider that transistor density on Kaveri at 28 nm is twice that of Haswell at "22nm," which is more like 26nm.

    14nm is a marketing tool. The question will be about performance per dollar, which AMD wins hands down right now. Moreover, lets not forget that Carrizo for the desktop might not even be a priority at all. When you begin to factor in Mantle, the potential for DDR4 or GDDR5, different cache arrangements and HSA, along with a cheap process the value proposition may be undeniable for consumers.
    Feb 21 11:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Shores Up Balance Sheet Amid Product Leaks [View article]
    @Ephud By pulling $25 million from treasury or taking it out on their $500 million revolving credit line. The press release says 'up to'.

    They did this with $50 million of the 2015 notes in Q4. The main thrust of the move is to preserve liquidity for 2015 and halt dilution of the stock. Both of which are good for current shareholders and for current holders of the 2015 debt, who are getting 75 basis points to roll forward now that the company's cash flow position is so much stronger thanks to the smash hits that are the PS/4 and Xbone.

    Thanks to all for carrying my water this evening... was out with the missus for our anniversary. Got this submitted 10 minutes before I left for the afternoon.
    Feb 21 11:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Still Unclear About AMD's Future [View article]
    @Stephen Yup. For now, they will keep the news bearish to accumulate. Then they'll be late singing its praises in order to offload positions onto the Muppets.

    Lather, rinse, repeat. WHAT CHINESE WALL?
    Feb 21 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Technology Proving Its Worth For Advanced Micro Devices [View article]
    @Rjlv I think, in looking it over quick that they solve a number of issues, if successful.
    1) Alleviate short term liquidity needs by putting off maturity until 2019
    2) Retire a lot of high interest rate debt.

    The net is to free up current assets for operations while shuffling the structure of its balance sheet. This will be looked on favorably by Wall St. who have been raising the liquidity issue as a reason to continue downplaying the stock. This was done for months to Nokia in 2012 as well. And you know the buy side of the investment houses were all quietly accumulating while the sell side was banging the 'going out of business' narrative.

    That's my take.
    Feb 21 12:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Technology Proving Its Worth For Advanced Micro Devices [View article]
    @Digi Things are worth what people are willing to pay for them. Period. End. Stop. Econ 101 baby. Please stop trying to impose your value system (what something is worth TO YOU) on the entire market which is clearly saying something different. You are free to recommend whatever product YOU FEEL is the better value but the market decides based on what people are willing to pay what something is WORTH. And that perception of WORTH is ever changing. SO, if you are getting into price forecasting, which you were, then you have to actually use economic analysis and ask "WHY is someone willing to pay $50-60 more for a card I feel isn't worth it?" As opposed to just sitting there and whining that the cards are over-priced.

    Again, you are free (and do a public service in the market) by identifying your rationale why you think product A is better than product B but that's it. Beyond that your entire understanding of market auction, prices and the law of marginal utility is what is deeply flawed.

    It's all through your writing.

    Please stick to the technology itself. As for economics, I'm sorry, but there you are woefully uninformed about basic definitions.
    Feb 21 12:44 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Technology Proving Its Worth For Advanced Micro Devices [View article]
    @Digi

    1) if the 265 is 'forced' up to $200 then the 750 is not real competition for it. There are other factors at play. I've tried to explain the economics to you, but really you don't get it. Prices rising mean inherently that the one card is worth more because of all of the factors that go into a purchaser's decision not just a rote comparison of frame rates, etc. If $200 is the market clearing price for a 265 then it is WORTH $200. Period. It may not be worth it to you and you may not recommend anyone buy it at that price but that's the price for it. And AMD is not being hurt by this in
    any practical way no matter how much you try to spin it otherwise.

    2) Selling cards above their MSRP because they offer total value in excess of their competition does not weaken a company's position.

    3) In an HTPC build an APU is a far stronger solution than any dGPU + CPU build and this is especially true of Kaveri. So that point is moot and if you are recommending people spend an extra $70 to $100 (including mobo price difference) than an AMD system is nuts. Please go look at the prices for the socketed Kabinis if we're talking HTPC builds here.

    4) And given the difference in performance in a price sensitive environment then I'm buying the $114 R7 260x over both cards and the whole stupid discussion is moot.
    http://bit.ly/1hbNDYO
    Feb 20 05:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Technology Proving Its Worth For Advanced Micro Devices [View article]
    @Avatar Yes, the $149 750, not the 750Ti... apologies.
    Feb 20 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Technology Proving Its Worth For Advanced Micro Devices [View article]
    @Digi Please. Power consumption on the desktop is irrelevant. 30-35W is half a penny in electrons per hour of intense gameplay at $.15 / KWhr and that the difference between Maxwell and the GCN 1.1 cards. Hell, I'll double that to account for the extra air conditioning needed. At that price who makes their buying decision based on couch change? Unless, that distinction is drilled into their heads by technology writers that have to fill space and/or satisfy their own preferences?

    At the mobile level where power rises in importance exponentially due to space, cooling, etc. yes, that is where it is important and frankly that is where your comments vis a vis comparing one card versus the other is important.

    Because, I can bet you dollars to donuts that if the situation was reversed and AMD's cards were more power efficient, what I just wrote would be the reason NOT to buy it over the market leader by at least some in the industry.

    From what I've seen of the R7 265 it smokes the lower end Maxwell card in performance at the same price point. That it does so for 30 watts more is actually kinda funny, since these are badly binned leftover Cape Verdes.

    In the mobile fight coming up in the next iteration of notebooks where we'll find out whether INTC + NVDA can dominate at the same level versus Beema and Kaveri.
    Feb 20 04:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Technology Proving Its Worth For Advanced Micro Devices [View article]
    @Digi And most of that gain was in notebooks, a condition we already knew about. With the delay of broadwell beyond the back to school season this opens up an opportunity for AMD to take share back. And Kaveri is strong enough in that power envelope as is Beema to do that.

    I can see that Maxwell mobile will be a selling point in upcoming notebook designs, however. So, what's the noise about delivery of them to OEMs? As long as its late Q2 then this will be a real market impact.

    As for dGPUs in the desktop? No way. The R7 265 eats the 750 alive and the R7 260x at $119 does as well. Power constraints at the desktop level are miniscule. Mobile is where Maxwell will have an impact as long as it lines up with product refreshes, which it looks like it will.
    Feb 20 02:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Early Mantle Results Support AMD's Low Power Strategy [View article]
    @asH9 Office-as-a-service is one of my main reasons for being bullish on MSFT last year. That is effectively what Office365 is and for $10/month for any professional needing office for 5 licenses it is dirt cheap and great value.

    This is the main argument for MSFT dropping their licensing costs on Win 8 yesterday. That alone and a 1 year sub to office 365 with the purchase of a Win 8 tablet would drop the price differential between MSFT and Android in mobile devices considerably.

    The the platform needs to be there to run it properly. I suspect Mullins has a good chance of pulling this off.
    Feb 20 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on AMD by Tom Luongo
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