Seeking Alpha

Tom Luongo

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  • Silver Caught In Cross Currents [View article]
    @IT If anyone has the inside dope of where Gold is headed it is The Morgue. :)

    If it works on Wall st. it is not to be trusted.
    May 9 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Caught In Cross Currents [View article]
    @Red The futures market is a sham. And now nearly everyone knows it. Did you see the volume spike at $1440? Moving price by dumping a million ounces on the market is not a market signal. The 10 million ounces bought at $1440 is.

    Talk it somewhere else. You're not as good as MI was.
    May 7 01:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Caught In Cross Currents [View article]
    @Kvatchik I think this is certainly the next phase of it. I'm hearing a lot of reports of heavy hitters demanding physical metal. We know the demand in Asia is not slacking off and the price is still on sale. The COMEX has been drawn down to less than 8 million ounces. That's the lowest level in a long time and it's accelerating. 6 tons for delivery in a non-delivery month? That's unheard of.

    The COMEX will default in name only and settle in dollars. Just like the Bundesbank is effectively being bought off in dollars for the next 7 years.
    May 7 01:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Caught In Cross Currents [View article]
    @Red The Big Boys are all demanding physical metal behind he scenes. Go look at the draw down on every major exchange. The outflows from the GLD and SLV are people demanding delivery, no matter what Maria B and the talking mo mo monkeys on CNBC say.

    The flight to physical gold has begun. The avalanche has begun and it is too late for the pebbles to vote.
    May 6 11:15 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Not Quite Ready To Rally [View article]
    @Cannon: Avi's an Elliott wave guy and I'm completely unimpressed by that discipline. If it works for him, however, more power to him. TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy if that is all you look at. One has to engage fundamentals and pick a time frame to trade that works for your level of interaction.

    I've come to agree with a more quantitative approach to markets where the probabilities are precisely drawn based on the instrument's past price history. The rules that work for trading AAPL are different for trading Gold and that's why EW and trend-line guys will be constantly jumping in and out when their signals get crossed, which will much with their probabilities.

    I understand fibonacci's and EW, trend lines/channels... triangles, wedges and the like. I just think it's all still too subjective to make clear-headed decisions.
    Jan 18 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Not Quite Ready To Rally [View article]
    @cannon: Technically, until we see a strong reversal on the monthly chart I remain cautious. I've been burned enough and these folx are resourceful and relentless. I'd say this week closing above $31.75 is a great sign... but we're still trapped below $35 an ounce. So, all of this is still just base-building/consolid... $35 is going to be fought like trench warfare. When it falls though, it will be a swift move back to $40 and then $50.
    Jan 17 07:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Not Quite Ready To Rally [View article]
    @IT: I agree with you. But USER's needs/wants are different than ours and I was trying to help him find something that may work better.
    Jan 15 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Not Quite Ready To Rally [View article]
    @User: If you are looking to profit from gold and silver then the best long-term play is a physical fund not a paper-backed one. There is a subtle difference in yield between them over time with DGL underperforming SGOL, for example, by nearly 5% since 2009. There are a number of them that are liquid enough for you to profit on if you are actively trading them.

    For those wanting to diversify geographically AGOL is like SGOL except that the gold is housed in Singapore. Very illiquid with wide spreads. for long term holdings only though because of this.
    Jan 15 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Not Quite Ready To Rally [View article]
    @RealityTrader: I will endeavor to persevere (Think Outlaw Josey Wales for the reference). Thanks for the compliment. Good luck in your investments.
    Jan 14 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Not Quite Ready To Rally [View article]
    @chettahey: High praise indeed. You humble me sir. Thank you.
    Jan 14 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Not Quite Ready To Rally [View article]
    @BoP: As well as can be expected... How've you been my good man?
    Jan 13 07:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Not Quite Ready To Rally [View article]
    @IT that is correct. If gold were money I could use it to buy something other than dollars. Guess what? I really can't.
    Jan 13 05:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Not Quite Ready To Rally [View article]
    @Michael: Thank you for your comments, they are appreciated. I'm not a big Elliott Wave guy but thanks for the insight.
    Jan 13 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Not Quite Ready To Rally [View article]
    I like Silver Wheaton. In a way they showed the path to break the control over mining investment by the Canadian Banks who have throttled a lot of good companies with recourse-style financing agreements.

    Royalty and streaming business models were a godsend to this industry. I have not looked at SLW in depth currently to have an informed opinion.
    Jan 13 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Not Quite Ready To Rally [View article]
    There you go focusing on nothing but prices. I'll only respond to this for teaching purposes. If you cheapen your currency you print more of that currency. In order for those newly-printed currency units to not cause DOMESTIC inflation the money has to go overseas. If you run a net trade deficit then you are sending out more currency which has to be absorbed by your trading partners who then buy something with them ... usually U.S. Treasuries as that's what the reserve currency status is in a functional sense. The Fed's ability to guarantee payment of the coupon regardless of what happens is what makes the system stick together along with the monopoly pricing of gold and oil in Dollars which creates constant international demand for Dollars.

    The process is akin to stealing by paying for yesterday's goods at today's prices with tomorrow's money. No one likes a thief, but everyone would be one if they could get away with it, so they respond in kind to maintain a balance.

    So, no, what I said was not demonstrably false, it is predicated on a definition of inflation YOU disagree with. So, YOU don't like it.
    Jan 13 09:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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