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Tom Winnifrith

 
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  • China Crash 2012/2013 - Overcapacity And Bubbles (Part One) [View article]
    Bankim Patel

    I am told to show balance here and so give hope. 2014 buying is for those who are LT China bulls.

    Personally, given that PRC demographics in 30 years time start to look like those of the old folks home that is the EU & my innate aversion to command economies I am not a LT China bull. I would be looking to buy back in.....never!

    Thank you for the comment

    Tom
    Sep 12, 2012. 07:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Crash 2012/2013 - Overcapacity And Bubbles (Part One) [View article]
    Ben Gee

    Government using borrowed money to build houses etc ( when there are already 65m empty homes) is not creating an asset nor a real job.

    Assets have value. When there is a 65m home overhang what is the value of another flat? And real jobs come from the private sector.

    If it was that easy why does not Pres Obama just borrow gazillions more and put all US unemployed folk out there building freeways, damns or more houses no one needs? Because in American we understand these are not real jobs, just real unfunded liabilities for the State.

    Tom Winnifrith
    Sep 12, 2012. 07:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Crash 2012/2013 - Overcapacity And Bubbles (Part One) [View article]
    Brett

    Accelerate very dramatically indeed?

    Tom
    Sep 12, 2012. 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sidestep Portfolio Meltdown As Global Warming Bubbles Burst [View article]
    BigD

    You miss the point on wind. The maths does not stack up. I refer you to a piece from the UK out today.

    http://bit.ly/P96qa4

    Tom
    Sep 11, 2012. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sidestep Portfolio Meltdown As Global Warming Bubbles Burst [View article]
    MJonesx

    I look forward to Michael Mann and his hockey stick in court with Mark Steyn soon. I know who I back to win

    Tom Winnifrith
    Sep 11, 2012. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sidestep Portfolio Meltdown As Global Warming Bubbles Burst [View article]
    The Sandman.

    Many thanks for your support. It is much appreciated but I am sure that it would not pass an IPCC peer group review. :)

    Best wishes

    Tom Winnifrith
    Sep 11, 2012. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sidestep Portfolio Meltdown As Global Warming Bubbles Burst [View article]
    MJonesx

    Dr Michael Mann? I bet my hockeystock ( not made up with fabricated data) that I want to be on a different side to him. There are scientists on both sides.

    Have you read books raising doubts about GW - try Ian Plimer's he is a scientist too!

    Best wishes

    Tom
    Sep 7, 2012. 04:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sidestep Portfolio Meltdown As Global Warming Bubbles Burst [View article]
    Moreofthesame

    "go breathe exhaust fumes etc" - yup you are a global warming nutter. Handing out such abuse rather than debating the issue marks you out as such.

    You do not want to hear a counter point here or indeed anywhere as it offends your religious sensitivities. I point out facts which suggest your beliefs are wrong. It hurts.

    Read the piece again and you will see that it is about the policy changes that must happen and how that could damage your wealth if you have exposure to certain investments. If you wish not to read the piece because of your strongly held views (based on faith and not reading a counter view) that is your call.

    Tom
    Sep 7, 2012. 02:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sidestep Portfolio Meltdown As Global Warming Bubbles Burst [View article]
    Robax6

    The increase in temperature 1900 to 2012 is not uniform ( see piece), ie it was Higher in 1939 than after the 36 year cooling phase that followed lasting until 1976. And of course it is colder now than it was in 1998. So you cannot draw a clear C)2 temperature link over 100 years.

    But more critically the increase 1900 to 2012 is far less rapid than the increase 1100-1200. And there was far less CO2 then. So how can you state C02 causes global warming. 1100 is not the distant past.

    Will the cost of carbon fuels in real terms go up?

    http://bit.ly/RHKy8a

    You will note that in real terms the oil price today is actually less than it was in 1979. I am not sure that it is a given that carbon fuel prices will in real terms race ahead to such an extent that we HAVE to use renewables on a massive scale short to medium term.

    Best wishes

    Tom
    Sep 7, 2012. 02:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sidestep Portfolio Meltdown As Global Warming Bubbles Burst [View article]
    Rames

    The decision of investors to allocate capital to this sector on a mammoth scale in the 2000s was made on the basis that a) GW was real and b) that policy responses (subsidies, etc) would continue ad infinitum. That lead to massive overcapacity.

    I point out in this piece that a) there are very real reasons to doubt GW and b) that those policies are already changing and if Lilley etc have their way will change more in the future. This will reduce demand in Europe at least for new capacity.

    In my own country Wind farms are hugely uncompetitive and without subsidy just do not work. The Govt ( which hands out subsidy freely) admits that. This sort of thing has to change.

    So this is not a rant about GW. This is an investment piece. Those who say my piece has no place here seem in reality to think it has no place anywhere. The reality is that the maths of many of these industries will worsen. That affects you as an investor.

    My research is not just cobbled together from the internet. Unlike some of the folks here I have actually read quite widely on this matter ( both sides of the coin). I wonder how many of the GW believers have actually ever read a book by a sceptic?
    Sep 6, 2012. 07:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sidestep Portfolio Meltdown As Global Warming Bubbles Burst [View article]
    ReeTrader

    Anyone who states "Of course, if you don't believe 100% of the climate scientists in the world that aren't on oil company payrolls, nothing I can possibly say will get through to you either." is clearly not going to be persuaded by "inconvenient truths" such as the fact that the world is now cooler than it was 10 years ago, etc.

    As for flat earth history. My point is that those who questioned the orthodoxy of the establishment in 1400 ( at that time the Church which stated that the earth was flat) were persecuted & ridiculed.

    You will change your mind as the models on which the GW religion were based carry on being wrong. So far they have been wrong 12 years out of 12 this century, not sure why it is me rather than you who needs to question my beliefs.

    Best wishes

    Tom
    Sep 6, 2012. 05:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sidestep Portfolio Meltdown As Global Warming Bubbles Burst [View article]
    Logical Thought

    We agree on the dreadful Al Gore. I accept that some sceptics may change their mind. But equally some GW enthusiasts in the scientific community have cooled as a result of the UAE revelations and the failure of models which the IPCC and others used to predict even the 2000s correctly.

    Our Governments are however spending gazillions as if the case is 100% proven. I just cannot see how ( especially as the world is now cooler than it was a decade ago) that this is the case.

    Thank you for the comment

    Tom
    Sep 6, 2012. 04:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Chinese Solar Stocks To Short With A Target Price Of Mere Cents [View article]
    Global Warming Myths Explained

    Various posters here asked me to justify my scepticism about Global Warming. I have done just that in a detailed article here on SA.

    It goes further in pointing out that if you still believe in GW you will have to accept that the gravy train of subsidy/tax relief is over.

    Finally it offers up another China renewables shorting idea.

    Enjoy

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Tom Winnifrith
    Sep 6, 2012. 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Trina Solar At $4.51: Target Price In The Cents [View article]
    Explanation of Global Warming Myths

    Various posters asked me to justify my Global Warming scepticism

    I have done just that in an article just published on Seeking Alpha. It also explains why even if you believe in GW you will have to accept that the gravy train of subsidy & tax breaks is over.

    Enjoy:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Tom Winnifrith
    Sep 6, 2012. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Trina Solar At $4.51: Target Price In The Cents [View article]
    Moreofthesame

    A longer piece on the bogus science of climate change is with the editors now. It also links to three books on the matter which you may find interesting reading (in the interests of balance).

    If you think I am a prize loon, go ahead and leverage up on all my shorts. It is a free world but as your friend I would advise against it. You may think I am a flat earth denier but the numbers on the stock analysis speak for themselves.

    Best wishes

    Tom
    Sep 5, 2012. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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