Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Tom Winnifrith  

View Tom Winnifrith's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • 2 Chinese Solar Stocks To Short With A Target Price Of Mere Cents [View article]
    Mr Sheepish and others

    Let us firstly address "peer review". A lot of what came out of the UEA scandal was that only those who agreed with the thesis that carbon emissions caused climate change were allowed to review. As such it became a self selecting process where only one possible outcome was possible.

    As to the thesis that C02 causes climate change, I have two main concerns.

    The first is that the models produced even a decade ago predicting dramatic warming by 2030 are already horribly wrong. Much of the world has in fact cooled. If these models are so horribly wrong after 12 years why on earth should they be right after 30?

    My bigger concern is based on history. There have always been periods when the earth was cooler and when it was warmer. The 6-8 Centuries BC ( The Dark Ages in Europe) were a cold period as was the 17th and 18th centuries. The 1100-1400 period was a warm period (vines in Greenland etc). We have seen huge ups and downs in the worlds relatively recent recorded history in the era before we emitted carbon on any scale. As such how can you now asset with blind faith that the current warming ( which is in fact not warming at all - the 2000 decade beng noticeably cooler than, for instance, the 1930s) is caused by carbon emissions?

    Best wishes

    Tom Winnifrith

    PS. When I was young ( ie 1973-4) the overwhelming consensus of scientific opinion was that we were heading for a new cold or ice age. I tend to regard peer reviewed scientific consensus on climate the same way as I regard the analyst communities collective view on Facebook.
    Sep 2, 2012. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Focus Media Holding For Maximum Loss Of $2.49, Potential Gain $14.51 [View article]
    JohnJohn

    You really think that China is heading for a soft landing? That bubbles slowly deflate? I am afraid that you will be disappointed. China is heading for the mother of all hard landings. An article on this matter will follow very soon

    Best wishes

    Tom
    Sep 2, 2012. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Analyst Downgrades: Do We Care? Are Any Analysts Now Credible? [View article]
    Tallguyz

    Many thanks. I think on Mr Blodgett internal emails show that his personal views were often rather different to his published stance. I would love to know the real personal views of the 35 analysts following FB. Or maybe they actually believe what they write which is a tad more concerning.

    Best wishes

    Tom
    Sep 2, 2012. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Analyst Downgrades: Do We Care? Are Any Analysts Now Credible? [View article]
    Waylock

    That should read 2.21 to 1.9. A typo. well spotted. I am sure most folks realised that. Will endeavour to get it amended

    Tom
    Sep 2, 2012. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Analyst Downgrades: Do We Care? Are Any Analysts Now Credible? [View article]
    ManoLive

    I make my living writing. If I call it right more folks want to read my stuff & I make money. And vice versa. That is my geared play on stocks. I have no position in anything I write about here.

    My point about BoA is that either it thinks the shares are 27% undervalued in which case it should rathe them buy. Or it cannot recomend a purchase in which case its target price is meaningless. It cannot have it both ways.

    Glad you liked the piece. More to follow...

    Tom Winnifrith
    Sep 2, 2012. 03:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Chinese Solar Stocks To Short With A Target Price Of Mere Cents [View article]
    Aron101

    Look at balance sheet and P&L & cashflows for JASO etc. These things do matter. Some companies are just so crocked that one talks not of the possibility or recovery but the chances of survival.

    Charts are all well & good but fundamental numbers do mater big time in survival situations & in this case I really suggest a careful analysis of the last 20F and quarterlies would be a worthwhile exercise before anyone considers bottom fishing.

    Thank you for the feedback

    Tom Winnifrith
    Aug 31, 2012. 08:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Chinese Solar Stocks To Short With A Target Price Of Mere Cents [View article]
    Steven

    And I might have a target that by 2015 I shall be ( aged 47) playing for Ireland at rugby and shagging all of the Corrs ( apart from Jim Corr obviously). Somehow I suspect that I shall not hit my target although if Andrea, Caroline or Sharon Corr is reading this and would like to get in touch I am prepared to make the rugby a secondary ambition.

    Targets and aspirations are one thing. Back to reality.

    I think you need to do rather more reading on a) the state of the Chinese economy ( I offered you a couple of links), re-read my article on the actual finances of LDK and re-read the Telegraph piece on what is going on at LDK as well.

    Good luck.

    Tom Winnifrith
    Aug 31, 2012. 03:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Target Price Is $5, But More If Zuckerberg Quits [View article]
    Ursobravo

    And the ad scandals hit after the the last quarter...

    My point is that given what has happened in recent months & change in usage patters (access from mobile applications not PCs etc) you simply cannot forecast with accuraacy LT earnings models and so cannot value based on a DCF model

    Best wishes

    Tom Winnifrith
    Aug 30, 2012. 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Target Price Is $5, But More If Zuckerberg Quits [View article]
    Graucho

    Life is simpler if you do not hold positions. If I am correct I make my money as a writer as more folks follow me. If wrong no0one bothers with me. So I have a different financial exposure.

    You do seem to grab a point some miss. I do not think FB will go bust. It is profitable (though not a great generator of free cash). It is merely that its valuation is absurd.

    Thanks for the feedback

    Best wishes

    Tom Winnifrith
    Aug 30, 2012. 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Target Price Is $5, But More If Zuckerberg Quits [View article]
    Jargon1

    In the good old days before folks hailed nonsense such as the Patriot Act as prudent, the US used to have a belief in free speech.

    There are vast numbers of analysts, PR spinners and other flunkies with a corporate relationship to Facebook who have more clout than me who are happy to put the bull case. I offer a bear case. Folks can ignore it or otherwise. So far I have been correct and the bulls wrong.

    I merely observe that history shows that company founders can be reluctant to use cash piles to support projects that are not their baby rather less enthusiastically than founder CEOs. I am entitled to flag that as an opinion.

    If you want lots of nice things to read about FB & Mr Zuckerburg and what value one puts on hope and potential, get on the research mailing lists of the firms that floated this company.

    "Mirror mirror on the wall, who is the fairest of them all?" "Oh you are Facebook, we're paid big bucks to say your stock can't fall"

    Tom
    Aug 30, 2012. 08:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Chinese Solar Stocks To Short With A Target Price Of Mere Cents [View article]
    Pipster

    Thank you. A 100% gain is the same wherever you start. You might get glory predicting a mega collapse but it is usually safer on the short tack just to pick off the living dead.

    Agree on Merkel scenario. But the Europeans need to be nice to China. Not sure they can play hardball with anyone right now ( even if they had a spine to start with).

    Am not finished with this sector yet...

    Best wishes

    Tom
    Aug 30, 2012. 08:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Chinese Solar Stocks To Short With A Target Price Of Mere Cents [View article]
    And over here in Europe the math does not work without subsidy and also without the cash to start up. In Europe a key driver of growth ( thanks to our misguided obsession with GW), there is a) no cash in the private sector and b) no more ash for Government subsidy.

    The richer nations do not have enough sun, and those with lots of sun (Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, France) have other "issues"

    I agree it is about economics

    Best wishes

    Tom Winnifrith
    Aug 30, 2012. 07:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Chinese Solar Stocks To Short With A Target Price Of Mere Cents [View article]
    KPgiants

    1. Often the best time to short is when it is near the final chapter. You can still make vast percentage gains if this collapses as it should and if there are mugs ( no offence) looking to buy.

    2.You like its debt ratios? They are a) horrific and b) if you are losing money/burning cash as JASO is even if they were as quarter as horrific that would still be dire. The balance sheet of this loss maker means it IS one of the weaker players. Suggest you also read the link to the London Daily Telegraph I provided.

    As for this being a growth sector. EU sales have driven demand but no-one in Europe has the cash for capital intensive v long term payback schemes without tax subsidy and Governments have run out of cash to subsidise. The game is up for a long while...

    Best wishes

    Tom
    Aug 30, 2012. 07:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Manchester United: It Takes A Brit To Explain Why America Has Been Fooled [View article]
    Chanthirani

    As a West Ham supporter you naturally support three teams. West Ham and anyone who is playing against either Spurs or Milwall. Heaven help us if Spurs played Milwall again, I would spend hours agonising about which side I wanted to lose most. On balance (as anyone who has watched Green Street would understand) that would be the one game on earth where I would root for the Spuds.

    Football is a very tribal game ( unless you are a nouveaux United/City/Chelski fan and will float with the times).

    Best wishes

    Tom

    PS of course these days - like all West Ham fans - I also delight in the success of Swindon Town FC but I really think that at this point I am confusing Americans to the nth degree.
    Aug 30, 2012. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manchester United: It Takes A Brit To Explain Why America Has Been Fooled [View article]
    Colin

    Many thanks.

    Sugar owned Spurs not Chelski but he certainly had issues with the fans. He once accused me of being financially illiterate ( which I guess some readers here would not disagree with) after I interviewed him at half time in an FA Cup Replay (Spurs v Hereford - naturally I was supporting Hereford) about the Spurs results the next day. I splashed the back page of the London ES with "Sugar says no cash for new players" ( based on my contemperaneous notes) and as Spurs fans abused him he said I misunderstood him & was financially illiterate.

    But that shows. Football not a business. Not investment grade.

    Best wishes

    Tom Winnifrith
    Aug 30, 2012. 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
82 Comments
21 Likes