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Tom Winnifrith

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  • Manchester United: It Takes A Brit To Explain Why America Has Been Fooled [View article]

    Two of the West Ham's best games of recent years were vs Man U - Paulo do Canio scoring through Barthez's legs in the cup and Tevezx scoring to keep WH up on the last day of the season at Old Trafford.

    If I was bitter towards every side more successful than West Ham I'd be bitter towards most teams!

    Now if Milwall or Spurs had achieved a $2.3 billion IPO then I might be bitter!

    Best wishes

    Tom Winnifrith
    Aug 27 02:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Crash 2012/2013 - Overcapacity And Bubbles (Part One) [View article]
    The hammer

    Just to say thank you for a kind post.

    What our China pal Ben Gee misses is that huge Government spending on building homes no-one needs, etc is just can kicking. Can kicking means that when you finally do tackle a problem it is that much bigger.

    Sep 12 07:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sidestep Portfolio Meltdown As Global Warming Bubbles Burst [View article]

    The decision of investors to allocate capital to this sector on a mammoth scale in the 2000s was made on the basis that a) GW was real and b) that policy responses (subsidies, etc) would continue ad infinitum. That lead to massive overcapacity.

    I point out in this piece that a) there are very real reasons to doubt GW and b) that those policies are already changing and if Lilley etc have their way will change more in the future. This will reduce demand in Europe at least for new capacity.

    In my own country Wind farms are hugely uncompetitive and without subsidy just do not work. The Govt ( which hands out subsidy freely) admits that. This sort of thing has to change.

    So this is not a rant about GW. This is an investment piece. Those who say my piece has no place here seem in reality to think it has no place anywhere. The reality is that the maths of many of these industries will worsen. That affects you as an investor.

    My research is not just cobbled together from the internet. Unlike some of the folks here I have actually read quite widely on this matter ( both sides of the coin). I wonder how many of the GW believers have actually ever read a book by a sceptic?
    Sep 6 07:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Zuckerberg Not Selling For A Year - A Red Herring [View article]

    Quite right.

    I provide ideas ( FB was a overhyped IPO sell at 38 and all the way down). So does comrade Brian Mizok ( buy heavily at $30). As investors we all look at ideas and then do our own research. If you win it is YOUR credit (not that of folks like me or Brian). If you lose it is YOUR fault.

    I guess that the old fashioned idea of taking responsibility for our own actions has gone out of style in some places. Shame.

    Sep 19 05:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Crash 2012/2013 - Overcapacity And Bubbles (Part One) [View article]
    Bankim Patel

    I am told to show balance here and so give hope. 2014 buying is for those who are LT China bulls.

    Personally, given that PRC demographics in 30 years time start to look like those of the old folks home that is the EU & my innate aversion to command economies I am not a LT China bull. I would be looking to buy back in.....never!

    Thank you for the comment

    Sep 12 07:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sidestep Portfolio Meltdown As Global Warming Bubbles Burst [View article]

    Dr Michael Mann? I bet my hockeystock ( not made up with fabricated data) that I want to be on a different side to him. There are scientists on both sides.

    Have you read books raising doubts about GW - try Ian Plimer's he is a scientist too!

    Best wishes

    Sep 7 04:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sidestep Portfolio Meltdown As Global Warming Bubbles Burst [View article]

    Anyone who states "Of course, if you don't believe 100% of the climate scientists in the world that aren't on oil company payrolls, nothing I can possibly say will get through to you either." is clearly not going to be persuaded by "inconvenient truths" such as the fact that the world is now cooler than it was 10 years ago, etc.

    As for flat earth history. My point is that those who questioned the orthodoxy of the establishment in 1400 ( at that time the Church which stated that the earth was flat) were persecuted & ridiculed.

    You will change your mind as the models on which the GW religion were based carry on being wrong. So far they have been wrong 12 years out of 12 this century, not sure why it is me rather than you who needs to question my beliefs.

    Best wishes

    Sep 6 05:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sidestep Portfolio Meltdown As Global Warming Bubbles Burst [View article]
    Logical Thought

    We agree on the dreadful Al Gore. I accept that some sceptics may change their mind. But equally some GW enthusiasts in the scientific community have cooled as a result of the UAE revelations and the failure of models which the IPCC and others used to predict even the 2000s correctly.

    Our Governments are however spending gazillions as if the case is 100% proven. I just cannot see how ( especially as the world is now cooler than it was a decade ago) that this is the case.

    Thank you for the comment

    Sep 6 04:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Trina Solar At $4.51: Target Price In The Cents [View article]
    Peter Mycroft Psaras

    I do not normally believe in charts ( especially hockey stick climate change charts). But given the drubbing I have taken from everyone else here I shall ake comfort from any support going.

    Glad to hear someone agrees with me.

    Best wishes

    Sep 4 06:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arbitrage Opportunity In China's Focus Media [View article]

    Comparing a $3.5bn Chinese stock to Apple in any way is proposterous. Are you saying that the fact that its historic margin was the same as Apple's means it merits a higher rating? We are just talking Apples & Pears here. If that is a peculiarly British expression and does not translate I apologise.

    You may note that the recent quarterlies referred to weakening trading. You bet - China is falling off a cliff. So I do not believe analyst forecasts.

    Moreover this is a Chinese company. he Muddy waters/Bronte allegations have not to my mind been cleared.

    And arb implies you lay off risk. I posted a piece on this site arguing that the tradeoff was that either the bid goes thru in which case it is $27 or the PR firms pull out. If that happens as a result of Due Diligence issues this stock is NOT going up but down big time.

    My recent piece with a rather different take.

    Best wishes

    Tom Winnifrith
    Sep 4 01:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Analyst Downgrades: Do We Care? Are Any Analysts Now Credible? [View article]

    I make my living writing. If I call it right more folks want to read my stuff & I make money. And vice versa. That is my geared play on stocks. I have no position in anything I write about here.

    My point about BoA is that either it thinks the shares are 27% undervalued in which case it should rathe them buy. Or it cannot recomend a purchase in which case its target price is meaningless. It cannot have it both ways.

    Glad you liked the piece. More to follow...

    Tom Winnifrith
    Sep 2 03:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Chinese Solar Stocks To Short With A Target Price Of Mere Cents [View article]

    Look at balance sheet and P&L & cashflows for JASO etc. These things do matter. Some companies are just so crocked that one talks not of the possibility or recovery but the chances of survival.

    Charts are all well & good but fundamental numbers do mater big time in survival situations & in this case I really suggest a careful analysis of the last 20F and quarterlies would be a worthwhile exercise before anyone considers bottom fishing.

    Thank you for the feedback

    Tom Winnifrith
    Aug 31 08:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Chinese Solar Stocks To Short With A Target Price Of Mere Cents [View article]

    And I might have a target that by 2015 I shall be ( aged 47) playing for Ireland at rugby and shagging all of the Corrs ( apart from Jim Corr obviously). Somehow I suspect that I shall not hit my target although if Andrea, Caroline or Sharon Corr is reading this and would like to get in touch I am prepared to make the rugby a secondary ambition.

    Targets and aspirations are one thing. Back to reality.

    I think you need to do rather more reading on a) the state of the Chinese economy ( I offered you a couple of links), re-read my article on the actual finances of LDK and re-read the Telegraph piece on what is going on at LDK as well.

    Good luck.

    Tom Winnifrith
    Aug 31 03:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Target Price Is $5, But More If Zuckerberg Quits [View article]

    In the good old days before folks hailed nonsense such as the Patriot Act as prudent, the US used to have a belief in free speech.

    There are vast numbers of analysts, PR spinners and other flunkies with a corporate relationship to Facebook who have more clout than me who are happy to put the bull case. I offer a bear case. Folks can ignore it or otherwise. So far I have been correct and the bulls wrong.

    I merely observe that history shows that company founders can be reluctant to use cash piles to support projects that are not their baby rather less enthusiastically than founder CEOs. I am entitled to flag that as an opinion.

    If you want lots of nice things to read about FB & Mr Zuckerburg and what value one puts on hope and potential, get on the research mailing lists of the firms that floated this company.

    "Mirror mirror on the wall, who is the fairest of them all?" "Oh you are Facebook, we're paid big bucks to say your stock can't fall"

    Aug 30 08:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Chinese Solar Stocks To Short With A Target Price Of Mere Cents [View article]

    Thank you. A 100% gain is the same wherever you start. You might get glory predicting a mega collapse but it is usually safer on the short tack just to pick off the living dead.

    Agree on Merkel scenario. But the Europeans need to be nice to China. Not sure they can play hardball with anyone right now ( even if they had a spine to start with).

    Am not finished with this sector yet...

    Best wishes

    Aug 30 08:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment