Tony Daltorio

The Global Oil Scam: 50 Times Bigger than Madoff

I can't believe a piece-of-crap article like this about some ostrich's (with his head in the sand) fantasies is an editor's pick?

And I do mean fantasies - not facts...for instance, spare OPEC capacity is located in one country - Saudi Arabia only, and their spare capacity is at most 2 million barrels and that's if you believe their numbers.

Hey Philip, if you interested in manipulations that occur every day involving Goldman and the boyz and involving tens of trillions of dollars over the years, look no further than the US stock market! The commodities markets are no more than a 'hobby' for them.

Lunatic Bubble Warning for U.S. Treasuries

This article is exactly right....

The treasury bubble is the biggest bubble I have seen in my near 3 decades in the industry.

Just think about what will happen when (not if) that bubble bursts and all the banks who have loaded up on Treasuries get killed (again)!

How to Finish the Fourth Quarter of 2009

Hey Alex,

Great article - which does not surprise me in the least.....

International Energy Association: Forced to Eat Their Optimistic Data on Future Oil Supply?

You neglect to mention that the costs of many of these new sources of oil will be extremely high.

Also there will probably never be a large amount of oil sands production, not only because of high costs, but because of the environmental costs - water, etc.

Finally, if you believe the Saudi numbers on their reserves, I got some swamp land I'd like to sell you.


On Nov 11 01:37 PM OilFinder wrote:

> The IEA is not being pessimistic on future oil supply.
> Once you start adding up production plans you'll see why:
>
> 1. Iraq - Proudction will increase from the current 2+ million barrels/day
> to around 10 million barrels/day by 2020. That's at least +7 million
> barrels/day in new supply.
> www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5bc...
>
>
> 2. Brazil - Production will increase from the current 2+ million
> barrels/day to around 5.7 million barrels/day in 2020. This does
> not include discoveries made and gone into production in the interim,
> of which there will be many:
> www.thaindian.com/news...
>
>
> So far we're at +10.5 million barrels/day
>
> 3. Angola - Figures from already-announced plans show an increase
> in production by 1.2 million barrels/day by 2015. This does not include
> discoveries announced in the interim or recent discoveries whose
> production plans have yet to be made.
> www.reuters.com/articl...
>
> So far we're at +11.7 million barrels/day in new supply.
>
> 4. Saudi spare capacity is currently around 4 million barrels/day:
>
> www.thenational.ae/app...
>
> And the former chief reservoir engineer at Saudi Aramco says they
> can sustain 12-14 million barrels/day output for 50 years:
> www.saudi-us-relations...
>
>
> So we're now at + 15.7 million barrels/day in new supply. Conservatively.
>
>
> 5. Canadian oil sands production will double by 2020. This is an
> addition of 1.6 million barrels/day:
> www.bloomberg.com/apps...;sid=aAXd0jJuIIoA
>
>
> Subtotal is now 17.3 million barrels/day in new supply by 2020.<br/>
>
> 6. Non-Nigerian West African coast. Recent discoveries off the coast
> of Ghana and Sierra Leone indicate a large new oil province opening
> up. The Ghana discovery will begin production late next year. There
> *will* be other discoveries in this area. Let's assume 1 million
> barrels/day production from this province by 2020.
> www.ogj.com/index/arti...
>
> blogs.wsj.com/environm.../
>
> investors.hyperdynamic...
>
>
> Subtotal is now 18.3 million barrels/day in new supply by 2020.<br/>
>
> I could go on with more examples. Reaching 20 million barrels/day
> by 2020 would be easy. I might even get to 25 million barrels/day,
> especially if we make some reasonable assumptions about new discoveries
> off the coast of Brazil and Angola.
>
> Now, what about declines?
>
> Let's be extremely pessimistic and assume production from Mexico,
> the UK and Noway falls to ZERO. This loses you about 7 million barrels/day,
> but we're still ahead by at least 11 million barrels/day. At this
> point you would have to lose the entire production of Russia to get
> to a measly +1-2 million barrels/day, but of course that won't happen.
> And production from the UK, Norway and Mexico won't fall to zero,
> either.
>
> I could write a much longer exposition on this, but you get the point.
> The IEA is not being optimistic. Heck, they might even be *pessimistic*.

China's Improbable Economic Growth Figures

The author should bone up before writing an article and get more recent information -

The paragraph about the migration of rural agricultural workers to the cities could have been written a decade ago...China has instituted many support programs in the rural areas - there is no longer a mass migration to the cities.

Saudi Oil Pricing Paradigm Shift: WTI Index Out, ASCI Index In

I know most commenters won't believe this but the final straw for the Saudis was earlier this year...

The price of the NYMEX WTI contract was more than $20 below what the actual global price of oil was and despite the BS about Cushing, OK, etc. - the real reason was blatant manipulation on the DOWN side by the Wall Street banksters.

The Saudis were furious that Wall Street was ripping them off to the tune of tens of millions of dollars, so they are now dropping the WTI in an attempt to get a less Wall Street-controlled price.

Obama's Fiscal Stimulus Has Saved Jobs

You are correct --- Obama has saved the jobs of thousands of very deserving, and I might add well-heeled, Wall Streeters

After all, as the Goldman exec said - they are "doing God's work".

Don't Believe Long-Term Oil Forecasts

Two things - one item is, who cares about the US statistics you quote, statistics from the emerging world are far more important.

Second - you're right about the manipulation, but it's on the downside by Wall Street. Wall Street makes much of their money from people like you buying stocks, and they do not want people seeing commodities are a solid long-term investment and moving their money there.


On Nov 09 08:32 AM John Eickholt wrote:

> Oil has been manipulated for years with the Hype of weather, China
> and India. Just like today the weather Hurricane Ida that has been
> downgraded.
> Some facts from last weeks Gov. inventory report.
>
> Distillate fuel demand has averaged 3.6 million barrels per day over
> the
> last
> four weeks, down by 14.8 percent from the same period last year.
> Jet fuel
> demand is 3.1 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to
> the same
> four-week period last year.
>
> www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oi...
>
>
> Distillate fuel move our goods and services. This is down 14.8% from
> last year. Even with this news they want to trade up prices for Greed.
>
> A story from Fadel Gheits about oil prices.
>
> Fadel Gheits is the one guy that CNBC won't bring on.
>
> seekingalpha.com/artic......
>
> FG: Two things. Oil prices have not been driven by supply and demand
>
> fundamentals for years. This was exacerbated by the incredible influx
> of
> money from financial players into the commodity markets over the
> last five
> years and especially oil, which basically created the oil bubble
> that we had
> last year. Supply and demand fundamentals are beginning to play a
> secondary
> role now in oil prices. Financial players have much more clout and
> basically
> manipulate-influence, if not manipulate-oil prices; that is very
> clear.
> That's why we have the investigation by the CFTC and all the hearings.
> I am
> not holding my breath to see any changes because the politically
> motivated
> individuals and the incredible lobbying by financial institutions
> make it
> very, very difficult to regulate or enforce regulations in the books
> to stem
> that incredible increase in financial institution influence on the
> commodity
> prices.
>
> I hope these oil traders will have to drink the oil for their New
> Years EVE drink.

Don't Believe Long-Term Oil Forecasts

The only reason that oil was $32 a barrel was the blatant manipulation of the NYMEX contract by Wall Street.

That is why Saudi Arabia is dumping using the NYMEX contract and opting for contracts that are less manipulated by the Wall Street banksters.


On Nov 09 03:05 AM bigbear4511 wrote:

> Oil was $32 dollars a barrel in February due to the market crash.
> It is highly possible we will experience another crash in the not
> so distant future. the next crash could easily be worse than this
> one. No one thought we would see 50$ a barrel ever again and we went
> way below that. The next big crash could be in CHina. Who will pull
> this economy out of hole when that happens.

Don't Believe Long-Term Oil Forecasts

What nonsense - typical for an American investor who never looks beyond their own borders.

Much of the emerging world has not and is not going through the financial suicide the US is with credit. And that is where most of the future demand for oil will come from.


On Nov 08 02:11 PM Jasper M wrote:

> "No reasonable person expects the world to return to those prices
> any time soon."
>
> The oldest rhetoric trick in the book - call those who disagree with
> you unreasonable, without any substantial argument to support it.
>
>
> Credit inflations tend to reverse Very quickly, which destroys money
> supply, faster than central banks can replace it. That drives down
> prices - FAST - as there is simply less purchasing power around.
>
> And we have been through the grandest credit inflation in very nearly
> 300 years. Maybe ever.

Q3 GDP: Obviously Fictional

Jeff is spot-on in his article....

One point I'd like to emphasize is the phoniness of the inflation numbers, among all the other government's fountain of mis-information - and that is how many people believe the fairy tale called deflation.

Look at all of the, as I call them, "deflation dummies" who are falling all over themselves to buy Treasuries at near 0% in the biggest financial bubble ever. And all because they believe the fairy tale concocted by Wall Street and Washington about deflation.

Don't they understand that the whole deflation fairy tale was cocncocted so the powers that be could find some investors dumb enough to buy US government debt.

Employment: Neither Quality Nor Quantity

When are both sides in the health care debate going to realize that the whole thing is nothing more than a "fake" issue designed by the elites to distract the public from the real problems - the Fed destroying the Dollar by printing trillions in funny money, the elites in Wall Street & DC continuing to enrich themselves off the backs of taxpayers, etc.

How Apple and iPhone Blew It in China

When are American investors going to ever look beyond US borders?

The reason the iPhone is not doing well in China and will NOT do well elsewhere overseas is that these markets had similar products years ago...despite the belief that the US is still the leader in tech, the truth is that America is no longer the leader in tech...American tech is now years behind their competitors.

Obama's Plan A Failed, But Plan B Looks Promising

If anything like the author proposes comes to pass, I will change my outlook to forecasting a depression many times worse than the 1930s.

There's No Bubble in China

Another spot-on article from Jeff Nielson!