Tony Daltorio

Can the Fed Defeat Dollar Carry Trade?

As usual, the author is blind to the true bubbles that have formed.

He sees bubbles in commodities and in China, but the biggest bubbles in the world right now are US Treasuries and in the author's favorite sector - technology...The tech bubble is approaching levels last seen a decade ago.

Why a Market Crash Doesn’t Matter

Instead of investing according to the BS in this article, I've simplified things - I own no US stocks, just foreign stocks and commodities.

Bright Future for Petrobras and Brazil, Part 2

You should really get some more up-to-date info on Brazil.....

I just wrote articles for Equities Mag and Investment U and the amazing thing in Brazil is how quickly the rich/poor gap is being closed and how many of Brazil's poor are now moving into the middle class - 52% of the population.


On Nov 22 10:53 AM geomort wrote:

> What a fine, if totally uninspired analysis Mr owner of Petrobras.
>
>
> But what about the Brazilian people? Whilst the GDP has increased,
> the disparity between the rich and poor has increased disproportionately
> faster. Cities located on the coast such as Recife, Maceio and Rio
> continue to expand. The subterranean aquifers in the northeast has
> dropped 30 m in the past 20 years due to new building contracts which
> develop regions and extract the their water. Saline sea-water wedges
> therefore cutting under underneath the cities and taking away drinking
> water. The biofuel industries chuck millions of tons of crap into
> the rivers, lowering the pH and bleaching coral reefs on the coast,
> whilst maintaining a salary of 150 USD a month to those on the poverty
> line undertaking the back to harvest the sugar cane, which even in
> Brazil, won't by enough food for the month.
>
> So by all means invest in Brazil and make a bang for your buck. And
> then watch as the poor get poorer and the rich get richer and know
> you've done nothing with your lives to help anyone. In fact you've
> probably helped kill a load of people. Don't believe me? Try reading...
>
>
> Lehtonen, M. (2009) Social sustainability of the Brazilian bioethanol:
> Power relations in a centre-periphery perspective. Biomass and Bioenergy,
> in press, 1-10.
>
> Bocanegra, E., da Silva Jr, G.C., Custodio, E., Manzano, M. and Montenegro,
> S. (2009) State of knowledge of coastal aquifer management in South
> America. Hydrogeology Journal, Online first:
>
> Costa Jr., O.S. (2007) Anthropogenic nitrient pollution of the coral
> reefs in southern Bahia, Brazil. Brazilian Journal of Oceanography,
> 55, 265-279.
>
> Nobre, R.C.M., Filho, O.C.R., Mansur, W.J., Nobre, M.M.M. and N.,
> C.C.A. (2007) Groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping using GIS,
> modeling and a fuzzy logic tool. Journal of Contaminant Hydrology,
> 94, 277 – 292.
>
> Gunkel, G., Kosmol, J., Sobral, M., Rohn, H., Montenegro, S. and
> Aureliano, J. (2007) Sugar Cane Industry as a Source of Water Pollution
> – Case Study on the Situation in Ipojuca River, Pernambuco, Brazil.
> Water, Air and Soil Pollution, 180, 261-269.
>
> Zancheti, S.M. (2005) Development versus urban conservation in Recife.
> A problem of governance and public management. City and Time, 1,
> 15-27.

U.S. Debt Hysteria Is Getting Ridiculous

So you're saying...you don't want to own anything real...like land, metals, gems, fuels, etc., but you do want to own pieces of paper and computerized digits that are worth what your lords and masters in the government tell you it's worth?

I thought I had seen and heard it all in my near 3 decades in the investment business.....

Let me give you one one piece of free advice - asset values come down to the basics - supply & demand...Real assets have real demand and FINITE supply, paper assets have an INFINITE supply which can easily overcome any demand.

One last thought - the biggest bubbles I have ever seen in financial markets I am seeing right now in US Treasuries & US stocks.


On Nov 20 05:00 PM JasonC wrote:

>
> Spots - flat wrong. The Fed hasn't been buying treasuries since October,
> and it owns no more today than it did the day Bear went bankrupt.
> The size of the Fed's total sheet is the same as it was last October.
> All of the buying of treasuries only rebuilt the position sold off
> earlier in 2008 as it moved from ownership of treasuries to direct
> loans to the banking system. The only net new position is the mortgage
> backeds, which have run up only as fast as loans to the banking system
> have been repaid. The Fed did expand the sheet one-off during the
> actual panic, but has been doing nothing but reposition from short
> loans to the money market into long term securities, since then.
>
>
> Once again we see that any error is tolerated and any slipshod fallacy
> is indulged provided it alleges doom and criticizes present institutions.
> It is just ridiculous at this point, the title of the article is
> correct. There isn't anything a doom mongering hyperinflationist
> can allege that won't be lapped up eagerly by the endless legions
> of lemmings all betting on the exact same thing that cause the bubble
> of the "oughts" in the first place - the metaphysical faith that
> anything you can hit with a stick is worth infinity, while anything
> denominated in money and especially in dollars doesn't exist.
>
> It's crap, the same crap that gave us $147 oil and $1 million 3 bedroom
> houses 20 years old. It is an inflationary brainstorm but the much
> maligned authorities are simply not living up to the doom mongers'
> script.
>
> The reason the bubble burst last year is the Fed held M1 completely
> flat for 3 years. That is all it took to make all the blown inflation-monger
> bubbles collapse of their own absurdity. The same will happen this
> time around. How many times do these idiots have to lose $10 trillion
> before they wake up to the fact that prices of real assets you can
> hit with a stick, can and do go down?

Why Krugman Is Wrong About the Yuan

You forgot about Wall Street - exporting suitcase nukes all over the world, cleverly disguised as AAA investments!


On Nov 20 12:19 PM waf76 wrote:

> I have to agree with this article. Besides war, what does the US
> export?

Why Is China Booming? Surprise, It’s Not the Stimulus

Excellent article with spot-on comments about what is really going on inside China.

U.S. Treasuries in a Bubble, Not Commodities

I agree with the author...the bubble in US Treasuries is the biggest I've seen in my near 30-year investment industry career.

And when that buuble does burst, look for the possible collapse of many major US financial institutions who have moved their assets from one bubble - mortgage securities to another bubble - Treasuries.

Five Reasons China Is Not a Bubble

One more reason China is NOT a bubble:

Look at most of the commenters - very bearish on China - which for a contrarian investor like me says that the China investment story is still in the early innings.

Dollar vs. Yuan: Exchange Rates Aren't the Problem. Or the Solution

The Chinese are not stupid...they see what happened when the US finally bullied Japan into 're-valuing' the yen - the Japanese economy imploded and has yet to recover.

The US did that to get rid of an economic competitor - Japan - and they want to do the same to China in the same way, but I don't think the Chinese will let the US bully them into that trap.

JP Morgan Invents New U.S. Employment Numbers

Angel, you really are missing the point...

Two of your 'positive' indicators - the US stock market and bond market - are up because of the "phony" data and the stupidity and laziness of not only the media, but most investors...

And I am not a bear - I am very bullish on overseas markets, especially emerging markets, and commodities...and have made lots of money in these markets for over a decade.

I completely 100% stay out of the US markets, even though I am American, because the markets here are far too manipulated and controlled by the big Wall Street players...and valuations are far too far too high, such as for crap stocks like Apple,etc.


On Nov 13 01:11 PM Angel Martin wrote:

> Imports are trending up, car loadings are trending up, commodity
> prices are up, the stock market is up, the yield curve is very steep.
>
>
> No birth/death adjustment, CPI quality changes, or JMP spin here.
> Same indicators investors used in 1921.

Two More Myths About Business in China

You need to quit paying attention to Michael Pettis who has been bearish on China since the time of the emperors. Anyone who listens to him will never make any money.


On Nov 13 10:04 AM semuren wrote:

> This author does not understand the real meaning of saving rate.
> If you want a much less superficial understanding of how this concept
> works I suggest Mike Pettis's blog China Financial Markets. Pettis
> explains that the "savings" of households are not really a choice
> to put money in the bank per se but a function of an industrial policy
> that subsidizes capital, energy, etc for SOEs and large connected
> enterprises though such state directed policies as the overvalued
> currency, direct subsidies, low interest rates, large interest rate
> spreads and low wage growth.
>
> No doubt what the author says about young spenders is true. In Chinese
> they are called the 月光族, the tribe that spends all their monthly
> income, but that doesn't matter because voluntary household saving
> are NOT the reason for China's high saving rate. Rather it is industrial
> policy that, in effect, taxes households to fund investment in export,
> manufacturing and infrastructure. Often such investments are actually
> value destroying, but they do make the books look good in the short
> term.

Geithner's 'Deeply' Held Belief in the Dollar

The entire highlight of that recent G20 finance ministers was the hissy-fit little Timmy threw when many other nations brought up the concept of transactions tax on the big boyz like Goldman.

Yeah, gawd-forbid we do anything to lower Goldman's bonus pool, right Timmy?

Zero Interest Rates Can't Last Forever. Then Where Are We Headed?

I strongly believe the Fed will continue to print money (QE) and support the Wall Street banksters until everyone finally loses faith in the country and the US dollar and it collapses toward its true value near zero.

Who will suffer the most? The average American...not the Banksters. They will have all of their assets in other countries, other currencies, and precious metals & other commodities.

The Global Oil Scam: 50 Times Bigger than Madoff

I can't believe a piece-of-crap article like this about some ostrich's (with his head in the sand) fantasies is an editor's pick?

And I do mean fantasies - not facts...for instance, spare OPEC capacity is located in one country - Saudi Arabia only, and their spare capacity is at most 2 million barrels and that's if you believe their numbers.

Hey Philip, if you interested in manipulations that occur every day involving Goldman and the boyz and involving tens of trillions of dollars over the years, look no further than the US stock market! The commodities markets are no more than a 'hobby' for them.

Lunatic Bubble Warning for U.S. Treasuries

This article is exactly right....

The treasury bubble is the biggest bubble I have seen in my near 3 decades in the industry.

Just think about what will happen when (not if) that bubble bursts and all the banks who have loaded up on Treasuries get killed (again)!