Tony Daltorio

Why Krugman Is Wrong About the Yuan

You forgot about Wall Street - exporting suitcase nukes all over the world, cleverly disguised as AAA investments!


On Nov 20 12:19 PM waf76 wrote:

> I have to agree with this article. Besides war, what does the US
> export?

Why Is China Booming? Surprise, It’s Not the Stimulus

Excellent article with spot-on comments about what is really going on inside China.

U.S. Treasuries in a Bubble, Not Commodities

I agree with the author...the bubble in US Treasuries is the biggest I've seen in my near 30-year investment industry career.

And when that buuble does burst, look for the possible collapse of many major US financial institutions who have moved their assets from one bubble - mortgage securities to another bubble - Treasuries.

Five Reasons China Is Not a Bubble

One more reason China is NOT a bubble:

Look at most of the commenters - very bearish on China - which for a contrarian investor like me says that the China investment story is still in the early innings.

Dollar vs. Yuan: Exchange Rates Aren't the Problem. Or the Solution

The Chinese are not stupid...they see what happened when the US finally bullied Japan into 're-valuing' the yen - the Japanese economy imploded and has yet to recover.

The US did that to get rid of an economic competitor - Japan - and they want to do the same to China in the same way, but I don't think the Chinese will let the US bully them into that trap.

JP Morgan Invents New U.S. Employment Numbers

Angel, you really are missing the point...

Two of your 'positive' indicators - the US stock market and bond market - are up because of the "phony" data and the stupidity and laziness of not only the media, but most investors...

And I am not a bear - I am very bullish on overseas markets, especially emerging markets, and commodities...and have made lots of money in these markets for over a decade.

I completely 100% stay out of the US markets, even though I am American, because the markets here are far too manipulated and controlled by the big Wall Street players...and valuations are far too far too high, such as for crap stocks like Apple,etc.


On Nov 13 01:11 PM Angel Martin wrote:

> Imports are trending up, car loadings are trending up, commodity
> prices are up, the stock market is up, the yield curve is very steep.
>
>
> No birth/death adjustment, CPI quality changes, or JMP spin here.
> Same indicators investors used in 1921.

Two More Myths About Business in China

You need to quit paying attention to Michael Pettis who has been bearish on China since the time of the emperors. Anyone who listens to him will never make any money.


On Nov 13 10:04 AM semuren wrote:

> This author does not understand the real meaning of saving rate.
> If you want a much less superficial understanding of how this concept
> works I suggest Mike Pettis's blog China Financial Markets. Pettis
> explains that the "savings" of households are not really a choice
> to put money in the bank per se but a function of an industrial policy
> that subsidizes capital, energy, etc for SOEs and large connected
> enterprises though such state directed policies as the overvalued
> currency, direct subsidies, low interest rates, large interest rate
> spreads and low wage growth.
>
> No doubt what the author says about young spenders is true. In Chinese
> they are called the 月光族, the tribe that spends all their monthly
> income, but that doesn't matter because voluntary household saving
> are NOT the reason for China's high saving rate. Rather it is industrial
> policy that, in effect, taxes households to fund investment in export,
> manufacturing and infrastructure. Often such investments are actually
> value destroying, but they do make the books look good in the short
> term.

Geithner's 'Deeply' Held Belief in the Dollar

The entire highlight of that recent G20 finance ministers was the hissy-fit little Timmy threw when many other nations brought up the concept of transactions tax on the big boyz like Goldman.

Yeah, gawd-forbid we do anything to lower Goldman's bonus pool, right Timmy?

Zero Interest Rates Can't Last Forever. Then Where Are We Headed?

I strongly believe the Fed will continue to print money (QE) and support the Wall Street banksters until everyone finally loses faith in the country and the US dollar and it collapses toward its true value near zero.

Who will suffer the most? The average American...not the Banksters. They will have all of their assets in other countries, other currencies, and precious metals & other commodities.

The Global Oil Scam: 50 Times Bigger than Madoff

I can't believe a piece-of-crap article like this about some ostrich's (with his head in the sand) fantasies is an editor's pick?

And I do mean fantasies - not facts...for instance, spare OPEC capacity is located in one country - Saudi Arabia only, and their spare capacity is at most 2 million barrels and that's if you believe their numbers.

Hey Philip, if you interested in manipulations that occur every day involving Goldman and the boyz and involving tens of trillions of dollars over the years, look no further than the US stock market! The commodities markets are no more than a 'hobby' for them.

Lunatic Bubble Warning for U.S. Treasuries

This article is exactly right....

The treasury bubble is the biggest bubble I have seen in my near 3 decades in the industry.

Just think about what will happen when (not if) that bubble bursts and all the banks who have loaded up on Treasuries get killed (again)!

How to Finish the Fourth Quarter of 2009

Hey Alex,

Great article - which does not surprise me in the least.....

International Energy Association: Forced to Eat Their Optimistic Data on Future Oil Supply?

You neglect to mention that the costs of many of these new sources of oil will be extremely high.

Also there will probably never be a large amount of oil sands production, not only because of high costs, but because of the environmental costs - water, etc.

Finally, if you believe the Saudi numbers on their reserves, I got some swamp land I'd like to sell you.


On Nov 11 01:37 PM OilFinder wrote:

> The IEA is not being pessimistic on future oil supply.
> Once you start adding up production plans you'll see why:
>
> 1. Iraq - Proudction will increase from the current 2+ million barrels/day
> to around 10 million barrels/day by 2020. That's at least +7 million
> barrels/day in new supply.
> www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5bc...
>
>
> 2. Brazil - Production will increase from the current 2+ million
> barrels/day to around 5.7 million barrels/day in 2020. This does
> not include discoveries made and gone into production in the interim,
> of which there will be many:
> www.thaindian.com/news...
>
>
> So far we're at +10.5 million barrels/day
>
> 3. Angola - Figures from already-announced plans show an increase
> in production by 1.2 million barrels/day by 2015. This does not include
> discoveries announced in the interim or recent discoveries whose
> production plans have yet to be made.
> www.reuters.com/articl...
>
> So far we're at +11.7 million barrels/day in new supply.
>
> 4. Saudi spare capacity is currently around 4 million barrels/day:
>
> www.thenational.ae/app...
>
> And the former chief reservoir engineer at Saudi Aramco says they
> can sustain 12-14 million barrels/day output for 50 years:
> www.saudi-us-relations...
>
>
> So we're now at + 15.7 million barrels/day in new supply. Conservatively.
>
>
> 5. Canadian oil sands production will double by 2020. This is an
> addition of 1.6 million barrels/day:
> www.bloomberg.com/apps...;sid=aAXd0jJuIIoA
>
>
> Subtotal is now 17.3 million barrels/day in new supply by 2020.<br/>
>
> 6. Non-Nigerian West African coast. Recent discoveries off the coast
> of Ghana and Sierra Leone indicate a large new oil province opening
> up. The Ghana discovery will begin production late next year. There
> *will* be other discoveries in this area. Let's assume 1 million
> barrels/day production from this province by 2020.
> www.ogj.com/index/arti...
>
> blogs.wsj.com/environm.../
>
> investors.hyperdynamic...
>
>
> Subtotal is now 18.3 million barrels/day in new supply by 2020.<br/>
>
> I could go on with more examples. Reaching 20 million barrels/day
> by 2020 would be easy. I might even get to 25 million barrels/day,
> especially if we make some reasonable assumptions about new discoveries
> off the coast of Brazil and Angola.
>
> Now, what about declines?
>
> Let's be extremely pessimistic and assume production from Mexico,
> the UK and Noway falls to ZERO. This loses you about 7 million barrels/day,
> but we're still ahead by at least 11 million barrels/day. At this
> point you would have to lose the entire production of Russia to get
> to a measly +1-2 million barrels/day, but of course that won't happen.
> And production from the UK, Norway and Mexico won't fall to zero,
> either.
>
> I could write a much longer exposition on this, but you get the point.
> The IEA is not being optimistic. Heck, they might even be *pessimistic*.

China's Improbable Economic Growth Figures

The author should bone up before writing an article and get more recent information -

The paragraph about the migration of rural agricultural workers to the cities could have been written a decade ago...China has instituted many support programs in the rural areas - there is no longer a mass migration to the cities.

Saudi Oil Pricing Paradigm Shift: WTI Index Out, ASCI Index In

I know most commenters won't believe this but the final straw for the Saudis was earlier this year...

The price of the NYMEX WTI contract was more than $20 below what the actual global price of oil was and despite the BS about Cushing, OK, etc. - the real reason was blatant manipulation on the DOWN side by the Wall Street banksters.

The Saudis were furious that Wall Street was ripping them off to the tune of tens of millions of dollars, so they are now dropping the WTI in an attempt to get a less Wall Street-controlled price.