Tony Daltorio

Don't Believe Long-Term Oil Forecasts

Two things - one item is, who cares about the US statistics you quote, statistics from the emerging world are far more important.

Second - you're right about the manipulation, but it's on the downside by Wall Street. Wall Street makes much of their money from people like you buying stocks, and they do not want people seeing commodities are a solid long-term investment and moving their money there.


On Nov 09 08:32 AM John Eickholt wrote:

> Oil has been manipulated for years with the Hype of weather, China
> and India. Just like today the weather Hurricane Ida that has been
> downgraded.
> Some facts from last weeks Gov. inventory report.
>
> Distillate fuel demand has averaged 3.6 million barrels per day over
> the
> last
> four weeks, down by 14.8 percent from the same period last year.
> Jet fuel
> demand is 3.1 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to
> the same
> four-week period last year.
>
> www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oi...
>
>
> Distillate fuel move our goods and services. This is down 14.8% from
> last year. Even with this news they want to trade up prices for Greed.
>
> A story from Fadel Gheits about oil prices.
>
> Fadel Gheits is the one guy that CNBC won't bring on.
>
> seekingalpha.com/artic......
>
> FG: Two things. Oil prices have not been driven by supply and demand
>
> fundamentals for years. This was exacerbated by the incredible influx
> of
> money from financial players into the commodity markets over the
> last five
> years and especially oil, which basically created the oil bubble
> that we had
> last year. Supply and demand fundamentals are beginning to play a
> secondary
> role now in oil prices. Financial players have much more clout and
> basically
> manipulate-influence, if not manipulate-oil prices; that is very
> clear.
> That's why we have the investigation by the CFTC and all the hearings.
> I am
> not holding my breath to see any changes because the politically
> motivated
> individuals and the incredible lobbying by financial institutions
> make it
> very, very difficult to regulate or enforce regulations in the books
> to stem
> that incredible increase in financial institution influence on the
> commodity
> prices.
>
> I hope these oil traders will have to drink the oil for their New
> Years EVE drink.

Don't Believe Long-Term Oil Forecasts

The only reason that oil was $32 a barrel was the blatant manipulation of the NYMEX contract by Wall Street.

That is why Saudi Arabia is dumping using the NYMEX contract and opting for contracts that are less manipulated by the Wall Street banksters.


On Nov 09 03:05 AM bigbear4511 wrote:

> Oil was $32 dollars a barrel in February due to the market crash.
> It is highly possible we will experience another crash in the not
> so distant future. the next crash could easily be worse than this
> one. No one thought we would see 50$ a barrel ever again and we went
> way below that. The next big crash could be in CHina. Who will pull
> this economy out of hole when that happens.

Don't Believe Long-Term Oil Forecasts

What nonsense - typical for an American investor who never looks beyond their own borders.

Much of the emerging world has not and is not going through the financial suicide the US is with credit. And that is where most of the future demand for oil will come from.


On Nov 08 02:11 PM Jasper M wrote:

> "No reasonable person expects the world to return to those prices
> any time soon."
>
> The oldest rhetoric trick in the book - call those who disagree with
> you unreasonable, without any substantial argument to support it.
>
>
> Credit inflations tend to reverse Very quickly, which destroys money
> supply, faster than central banks can replace it. That drives down
> prices - FAST - as there is simply less purchasing power around.
>
> And we have been through the grandest credit inflation in very nearly
> 300 years. Maybe ever.

Clarifying America's No-Win Economic Dilemma

Excellent article. The author is right that America is no longer THE economic superpower in the world. Yet, most American investors have yet to realize that fact.

The Market Bubble Is About to Pop

Great article - the author is spot on!

The US stock market (especially tech and financial stocks) and bond market are the biggest bubbles I've seen in decades.

Commodities and emerging markets will decline initially, but then rebound. Commodities have rapidly growing demand from the emerging world, and more importantly productive capacity in most commodities is dropping rapidly due to a lack of investment, partly due to the financial crisis.

And despite the Wall Street propaganda, the emerging economies are less and less reliant on the US. With the current trends, in a few years they won't "need" the US at all.

Peak Oil for Dummies

To Ostrich, Sorry I mean Moral Hazards Amok,

Please get your head out of the ground. Major oil fields from Mexico to Russia to the Mid-East are rapidly depleting. And demand from the emerging economies is rapidly increasing.

The whole idea behind "Peak Oil" is not that we will run out of oil, but that we will run out of oil that be exctracted from the ground economically.

Sure they are many alternatives, but none of them yet make economic sense. They're getting closer but not yet.


On Aug 09 11:32 AM Moral Hazards Amok wrote:

> Oh, pleeeeeeeeeeease! The alarmists have been screaming about peak
> oil since the 1920s. They were obviously wrong then and they're also
> wrong now. Oil shale, oil sands, and new technologies allowing producers
> access to oil fields of much greater capacity than anything we've
> tapped so far... We're swimming in the stuff if the democrats and
> their radical Marxist allays will just allow us to produce it.<br/>
>
> Let me also point out that our natural gas reserves in the US contain
> more twice the energy contained in the oil fields of Saudi Arabia.
> It's very easy to start building trucks and cars that run on NG,
> and indeed we will soon start making that transition. Epiphany, folks,
> it’s very easy to transition to a NG transportation economy and we’re
> beginning to do so. Problem solved for several more generations.
>
>
> A much better article would have been about why peak oil is a myth,
> complete with much better references. But then again, no doubt our
> young author probably has a political agenda.

Why You Should Stick With the Dollar and the U.S.

If anyone wants to see why the US is going down a sinkhole, never to rise again to a position of strength just read this commenter. And most Americans think like him.


On May 24 09:16 PM IronMeteor wrote:

> With all due respect
>
> In the words of Peter Shiff, "We are not the engine, We are the caboose,
> and we are being cut loose."
>
> Peter Schiif is an idiot. That is the dumbest comment ever. Have
> you ever been to Europe, Japan, China, South-East Asia. I have been
> to all them. We are the engine, the cabose and the whole damn train
> to those export driven regions. I dare them to cut us loose. I will
> laugh as our manufacturing ramps back up and they die on the vine.
>
>
> Come on, lets stop this fantasyland crap. China owns 2T in US assets
> because they sold us 2T dollars worth of junk the last 10 yrs. Who
> is going to buy 2T in the next ten. Their own citizens. Give me a
> break. Go visit China. They are poor and save every nickel. How about
> BMW, they going to sell all those expensive cars to China. Right.
>
>
> Come on, the reason the world economy has tanked is the US consumer
> has tanked. They accounted for 60% of the growth from 2000-2008.
> Who is going to take that slack up. Its sure easy to run surpluses
> when you have a credit debt bubble in the US and debt addicted consumers
> buying it all. But now what, those US consumers are down and out
> (it's true) but so are all those export driven areas. I want to see
> Japan and Germany be so smug when we aren't buying their stuff. Those
> surpluses will be deficits (they now are, amazing). Who would you
> rather be, a recovering drug addict or the drug dealer who has no
> more customers.
>
> We suck, we were drug addicts. But they suck even worse, they were
> the dealers.
>
> Please, stop the insanity. Its hurting my ears.
>
> Go ahead and listen to Peter Schiff, I guess losing 1/2 your money
> last year wasn't enough. You want to lose it all.
>
>
>
>