Tony Daltorio

China: The Brightest Star on the American Investment Horizon

There is NO China bubble, but there is one in ALL US assets.


On Dec 10 12:42 PM DrBenway wrote:

> >> The only dark cloud on the horizon is the prospect of increased
> Chinese inflation from the declining yuan.
>
> I can offer a few other dark clouds:
>
> - An unsustainable real eastate bubble (especially commercial). When
> I was in Shanghai, I stayed in half-empty hotels 5 start hotels paying
> about $80 a night
>
> - A huge manufacturing overcapacity. China's prices have actually
> DEFLATED while the economy is supposedly growing at over 8%. Just
> look at any data
>
> - A stimulus-driven non-organic GDP growth. What will happen after
> the stimulus is withdrawn and there's still no one to export to?
>
>
> All in all, it is not a matter of if the Chinese bubble will poop
> but when.

Will Obama Replace Geithner with Dimon?

Why bother replacing an enabler (Geithner) with an addict (Dimon)?

They're both deeply involved in the greedy 'criminal' business known as Wall Street...

China Needs to Look Within for Solutions to the Falling Dollar

This article was just an absolute pile of academic trash and a bunch of right-wing nonsense.

As long as too many Americans like Professor Morici believe that America is ALWAYS right and foreign nations, like 'evil' China, are ALWAYS wrong, this nation will continue down its path toward oblivion.

The Great Bubble of China: Beginning of the End or the End of the Beginning?

What absolute poppycock. Do you work on Wall Street?

If not, you sure have swallowed their Kool Aid. The coastal cities in China being the economic growth engine was true 10 years ago, not today. Economic growth is coming from the vast interior provinces of China.

You also speak of China's low moral standards. In comparison to Goldman Sachs and the rip-off kings of Wall Street, they are choir boys.


On Jul 29 10:52 AM Susan Weerts wrote:

> It is easy to say today that “all that talk in the 80's was just
> hooey.” Let's compare 80's Japan before it collapsed and China today,
> every companies in the world raced to open an office in Japan and
> hot money flew in left and right. Its stock market and housing market
> sky-rocketed. Japanese was on the shopping spree to buy anythings,
> from 7-up chains, Rockefeller center, MGM(or paramount) and etc as
> well as various resources (they gulped up coal, oil and etc) worldwide.
> (Even today, they imported enormous coals, which stored somewhere
> underground in Northern Japan) They had the largest currency reserves
> in the world back then while USA was in a huge deficit and in the
> midst of housing burst. They transferred its old export economics
> into technology-oriented. They had an artificially depressed currency
> compared to $. They launched massive infrastructure projects, including
> bridge-to-nowhere (compared to china's build it, destroy it, and
> build it). They had (still do) very high saving rate.
> They passed massive plans to stimulate its domestic demands...<br/>
>
> It is true that Japan were lack of land and resources. Most of Chinese
> developments concentrates on a few of coastal cities, which are lack
> of land and resources. It is true that you can view these cities
> acting as a hub or financial center for its future inland developments.
> You need some sort of organic growth in those inland areas to foster
> the credible/sustainable growth. China can not just build itself
> out for the future growth, especially majority of building are in
> the already-developed areas.
>
> In addition, Japan's mom-pop organization hierarchy contributed some
> synergy to its economics developments (although it is debatable.)
> China faced more back-stabbing, infighting, and bureaucratic red
> tape.
>
> Then again, anything is possible. China might successfully negative
> itself to the top. As you said, USA might just roll over.
>
> I just want to point out the similarity between 80's Japan and China
> today. Correct me if I'm wrong. I didn't have the first-hand information
> on 80's Japan.

The Dollar Is Safe for Now

The author is missing the key point. Yes, China will not dump trillions of dollars onto the market at once. But, China has already started down the road of GREATLY reducing their future purchases of US Treasuries.

The consequences of this action will be that the Federal Reserve will have to print even more money - monetize even more of US government expenditures.

This will lead to a much weaker US Dollar over the next few years and much higher inflation.

Is China Really Trying to Create a Global Currency?

I do agree with your comments about the gold standard. However, your comments about China show the typical arrogance and ignorance of Americans about the rest of the globe. China is rapidly moving away from being an export economy. And it does matter what they think because of the US need for "suckers" to buy our debt. If China even slows down their purchases a bit, the Fed will have to print billions more dollars to buy Treasuries and that will simply accelerate the dollar's move into the history books. We should do all we can to keep China happy, and not insult the biggest "investor" in the US.


On Mar 25 02:02 PM Alex Filonov wrote:

> Why gold and not silver? Or maybe platinum or rare shells? What about
> glass beads?
>
> We can't use gold in fast developing world economy. It will create
> constant deflation and kill most of the credit. Gold standard in
> the world only worked for a short time (less that 50 years with WWI
> interruption) and was only possible because huge gold deposits were
> uncovered in Australia, US and South Africa. Even then deflation
> was a way of life.
>
> Get over it. National money is whatever government says. National
> money always was creation of government. International money is what
> market says. So far market(s) stick with US dollar.
>
> It doesn't matter what China wants. If they continue with export
> oriented economy, they'll end up as Japan did since 1989. If they
> want to sell the stuff they make for more, there are enough countries
> in the world which can work for less. If they don't like US Treasuries,
> nobody forced them to buy.