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Tony Kau

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  • This Gold Slam Is A Massive Wealth Transfer From Our Pockets To The Banks [View article]
    Great exposition!
    Apr 15 07:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Republicans say they will refuse to raise taxes, but Peter Morici thinks they would be smart to reconsider. Barry Ritholtz wants to hit high net worth individuals whose numbers and net worth have swelled during the past two years. The population of HNWIs rose 8.6% in 2010 to 3.4M after rising 16.6% in 2009, according to a CapGemini report, and their wealth jumped 9.1% to $11.6T.  [View news story]
    should have closed my previous post with <end sarcasm> lol
    Jul 12 12:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Republicans say they will refuse to raise taxes, but Peter Morici thinks they would be smart to reconsider. Barry Ritholtz wants to hit high net worth individuals whose numbers and net worth have swelled during the past two years. The population of HNWIs rose 8.6% in 2010 to 3.4M after rising 16.6% in 2009, according to a CapGemini report, and their wealth jumped 9.1% to $11.6T.  [View news story]
    Those evil HNWI... making money while the rest of us are unemployed... they must have put their money to work in the stock market which has, coincidentally, risen over that same time period. I'd like to know what HNWI wealth did during 2008...
    Jul 11 11:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Options Play on Johnson Controls: Capture the Pullback With Less Risk [View article]
    Fair enough, I believe an average trader looking for exposure on this play wouldn't do more than 10 contracts which you can almost always buy all of on the ask (and vice versa), and slippage wasn't unreasonable.

    My stock-only trend exhaustion fund has a short position on JCI, which I explained in the disclosure that apparently wasn't published by the editing staff. But, touche. :)
    Jul 6 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Options Play on Johnson Controls: Capture the Pullback With Less Risk [View article]
    You could just as easily let the short legs expire if they're still OTM instead of actually rolling them. Especially with transaction costs, that's the way to go. If you're in the money on the short leg at any point, I would recommend exiting the whole position early to capture that windfall gain.
    Jul 6 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Logitech Is a Logical Buy [View article]
    Thanks, 475F. Another sign pointing to a time to buy!
    Jun 14 03:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Do You Get Bullish on LinkedIn? [View article]
    I agree that you shouldn't get in the way of a herd movement - they're dangerous and can certainly run you over even if you're backed by the fundamentals. I would even go so far as to say that no stock trades according to rational fundamental criteria, because if that were the case, a stock's price would only change following material news affecting profitability and growth of the company.

    However, I believe that a company's valuation is the center of gravity around which these pricing gyrations occur. Supply/demand, psychology, trends, rumors, popularity, sentiment, pain/greed are all part of those extraneous movements. However, in the long run, prices tend to return to true valuation levels.

    I wouldn't short LNKD now either - too dangerous. What I normally do, though, is to take a company that's significantly over- or under-priced and rely on my Trend Exhaustion App ( tonykau.com/trend-exha.../ ) to make an educated entry for the best chance of buying low and selling high.
    May 27 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time to Take Another Look at HP [View article]
    HP's current dividend yield is 0.89%. Many tech companies (even huge ones) choose not to dole out a dividend and instead, reinvest the money in their business. To me, it's a sign that they have opportunities with positive NPV. Companies like MSFT, with a 2.65% div yield, are basically cash machines - you can't expect a lot of growth, but their model is highly profitable.

    Historically, HPQ has had a dividend for the last 24 years, and during the first half, they were steadily increasing prior to the tech bubble in '99. The dividend has stayed at $0.08 for the last 13 years through a price range of $12 to $75
    May 26 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 8 Best Short Ideas [View article]
    I would agree that LNKD would make a great short candidate (see my valuation seekingalpha.com/artic...), but right now we're dealing with significant supply/demand issues.
    www.cnbc.com/id/43159206
    May 25 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Better Targeted Ads Should Lift LinkedIn Ad Pricing Levels [View article]
    I like the level of detail. I took a broader approach and arrived at almost exactly the same price. seekingalpha.com/artic...
    May 25 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: What Is The Market Thinking? [View article]
    Yes, those are some significant expectations. I came at this from a different angle, valuing the stock, without considering its current price. seekingalpha.com/artic...
    May 25 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy the Dip on Big Oil [View article]
    5yr Growth is a consensus number, yes (source: Yahoo Finance). I'm certainly no expert on commodities but I do believe in the facts of supply and demand. We're seeing this dip now, which, I believe, is a technical move (less buyers, more profit-takers) not a long-term fundamental trend.
    May 23 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 13 Dirt Cheap Stocks to Research and Buy on Dips [View article]
    I believe Mr. Levis is suggesting that if you buy the $15 call for $4, and the stock drops to $10, your max loss is capped at the $4 instead of $8.50 if you bought the stock. Options are most often used as leverage, so you're right that it has a much greater percentage impact than buying the stock. However, for identical exposure, you allocate a smaller percentage of your trading capital to that idea when you buy the call instead of the stock. You must allocate options different than stock - it behaves like a completely different animal.
    May 23 11:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy the Dip on Big Oil [View article]
    The dip is the 12% drop down from $81 on plunging oil prices.
    May 19 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy the Dip on Big Oil [View article]
    Thanks for prompting me to explain this, Steve. You're right. There is no data for 2014, but as with most projections, I took past data and results and combined it (conservatively) with future expectations. There is a consensus long-term growth rate available and, I would argue, one of the most consistent track records of profitability in the universe of publicly traded equities. Only time will tell, but Big Oil was one of the easiest models to put together because of the consistency we've seen in their history.
    May 19 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
36 Comments
14 Likes