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Tony Roylance  

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  • Federal Reserve New York Gold Withdrawal Numbers 2014 Don't Match Dutch-German Repatriation Claims [View article]
    Yes, Zerohedge has an interesting investigation of this event
    Feb 1, 2015. 11:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: $1,200 Production Break Even Level Held In 2014, Only Way Is Up [View article]
    Good commentary, the actions of the Swiss National Bank, Greece once again needing a bailout by the EU, the decline in oil and copper demand all are warnings that the equity markets may have run out of steam for the time being and a correction is on the way. I agree with you and am also long the "barbarous relic" and silver as well.
    Jan 16, 2015. 11:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1987 Vs. 2014: Should We Be Concerned About A Crash? [View article]
    Sorry Joel, I stand by my comment, read this paste from your link:

    The amounts of money required to attempt such a manipulation would be huge. We are talking tens of billions of dollars if there was a true collapse going on. The collective size of the trading community in the world (hedge funds and "prop" desks - a prop desk is a proprietary desk for an investment bank or broker-dealer) is in the multiple hundreds of billions. It would require the willingness to lose billions of dollars every time you took the plunge, so to speak.

    The Fed is already monetizing 65-75 billion a month, but go ahead and believe what you wish.
    Mar 27, 2014. 11:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1987 Vs. 2014: Should We Be Concerned About A Crash? [View article]
    It appears the analysis is done on I'm not sure if they have a backtesting or strategy-testing capability.
    Jan 22, 2014. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1987 Vs. 2014: Should We Be Concerned About A Crash? [View article]
    On certain derivatives the market makers have leverage of over 100x. I would imagine that the FRBNY would have even greater leverage than that. It is literally a "license to kill". The 800 point rallies during the midst of the financial crisis weren't mom and dad, widows, and dentists buying. It was epic short-squeezes of big money investors vs. the Fed.
    Jan 22, 2014. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1987 Vs. 2014: Should We Be Concerned About A Crash? [View article]
    To answer your question, No, we don't need to worry about a 1987-type crash because shortly thereafter Ronald Reagan created the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, aka the Plunge Protection Team. So while we will still continue to have booms and busts as well all know, the Federal Reserve's NY Trading Desk will step in with infinitely leveraged BUY programs should we begin to experience a wipeout like that again.
    Jan 21, 2014. 02:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Proper Market Timing Trumps 'Buying And Holding' [View article]
    All traders have been there and done that, and you are exactly right, if one had done the opposite of you (and me when I first started), they would have excellent returns. That's when I decided to start thinking like who is on the other side of my trade. If this stock is doing so great and everyone's talking about how it's going even higher and I can't find a single thing wrong with it fundamentally or technically, then why is someone else willing to sell it to me? Not only that, but thousands and thousands of shares are for sale when I check Level 2.
    That's when you decide to either stop trading altogether and buy and hold, or decide to learn everything you can about the markets.
    The best trades are the ones that make you feel almost nauseous for trying to execute. The easy trade is the money loser.
    Dec 12, 2013. 03:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Proper Market Timing Trumps 'Buying And Holding' [View article]
    What individual investors don't understand is that market timing actually reduces market risk.
    Dec 12, 2013. 10:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking To Go Long The S&P 500? Wait For A Better Entry [View article]
    Thanks for the comment LMH!
    I try to provide quality research for my articles on SA, each one takes me a few hours to research and write, so I haven't had time to do one, but I will work on one this week. As of right now, indicators are still saying to be long the market. If you are completely out of the market, I would recommend you average in until you reach about 70 or 80% percent invested in equities (which I imagine would be the appropriate asset allocation for you, it is for most people). I would hold back the remaining until we see decent weakness in a correction. It's tempting to pull the trigger at all time highs and immediately go 100%, but that's what amateurs do, not professional traders like us. One must be like a sniper and wait for the right shot to come, even if it means missing a few decent shots. There's no worse feeling than going 100% long and then a day or 2 later watching the Dow drop over 200 points, etc. Those days will be here soon enough, and while you'll be reading articles on here from other contributors saying it's time to panic and run for the hills you and I will be quietly picking up shares on the cheap.
    Thanks for the comment and the follow!
    Nov 18, 2013. 10:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Active Vs. Passive: You're Kidding, Right? [View article]
    Good Article, I have one question, what data are you referring to for "demand volume" and "supply volume"? Also, the problem I've found with a moving average crossover system, especially on a MONTHLY time frame is the tremendous amount of lag involved between getting signals. An awful lot can happen in one month.
    As I have discovered also, trend following systems are where the big performance gains are made. Overbought/Oversold systems work great during a market consolidation, but perform poorly during a trending market. Trend following work great in a trend, but get cut to pieces in a flat market. So the million dollar question is, are we in a trend or are we consolidating, and depending on which we decide, for how much longer?

    I agree wholeheartedly that not only traders, but investors MUST TRADE BY A SYSTEM. "Buy and Hold" or "Hope" is way to risky for me, and should be for anyone considering that the major market indexes have experienced 2 greater than 50% declines in the last 13 years, not counting incidents in 1998 and especially 1987. Avoiding bear markets is the key to happiness in investing. And I wholeheartedly agree with the point that Mr. Moening is making.

    Over 90% of "professional" money managers tell people that "No one can time the market." I heard it repeatedly from poorly performing money managers when I was a consultant to pension funds. When the market did well, they took all the credit. When the market performed poorly, they blamed everything on the market and that no one can time it. If you truly believe that, fire your money manager, open a brokerage account straight with Vanguard and buy the Vanguard Total Market ETF (VTI) with your personal risk-tolerance asset allocation between stocks and bonds. Look for a money manager that actually trades and invests in the market and has been doing so for many years.

    Again, great article Thanks
    Oct 25, 2013. 11:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking To Go Long The S&P 500? Wait For A Better Entry [View article]
    JQ, I would like to give you a market outlook that goes out that far, but there are just way too many variables to factor in that I don't want to even speculate. To me, yes the market seems overbought. But I also traded through the tech bubble and valuations then were simply insane. In fact, valuations isn't even a fair word because many of those companies had no value at all!
    This market can absolutely go higher, my long-term strategy indicates to still be in the market, but now it appears that the S&P 500 and other market indexes have gotten ahead of themselves.
    Before you deploy your strategy, you have to clearly specify what is your "edge", then develop it, and test it to make sure that it makes sense intuitively and has positive performance in the market.
    For my long-term strategy I came to the conclusion that money, flow of funds, supply and demand, is what ultimately dictates whether the market is going to keep going up. Keep in mind, the higher a market goes up the more money it takes to keep it afloat. If fund flows drop or stay stagnant, the market will fall. Then I developed sources of data to include in that strategy and backtested it to make sure it truly worked. That is my edge, it took me a very long time of daily constant study of the market for years to develop it, and it was a very expensive lesson for me. As a new discretionary trader I will tell you I was cut to pieces.
    good luck and feel free to contact me if you'd like to discuss ideas, I'm very busy at the moment but enjoy meeting people.
    Oct 23, 2013. 09:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking To Go Long The S&P 500? Wait For A Better Entry [View article]
    thanks for the follow! I hope to provide actionable investing and trading ideas.
    Oct 22, 2013. 10:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking To Go Long The S&P 500? Wait For A Better Entry [View article]
    Thank you, and I've appreciated your comments. Actually, no I'm not saying that a correction is imminent, the chart of NQH's vs. NQL's is there to show that the current conditions were present prior to the last correction, and that we need to be cautious at these levels.
    I mentioned the stochastics oscillator to show the locations of "ideal" buy points. As shown by the chart, an investor who had deployed her money at each of those levels (and by the way, you buy when the oscillator reaches an oversold level and turns back up), would be a very happy person right now.
    Spotting tops is much more difficult. I have backtested and researched hundreds of indicators looking for one that successfully identifies most market tops. I have not found a single indicator that does it effectively. I have found several market breadth indicators that are effective, such as the advance/decline line, new highs vs. new lows, and new quarterly highs vs. new quarterly lows.
    Oct 22, 2013. 06:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking To Go Long The S&P 500? Wait For A Better Entry [View article]
    In that case I used full stochastics, but the Stochastic Momentum Index is also a great indicator for this exercise.
    Oct 22, 2013. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking To Go Long The S&P 500? Wait For A Better Entry [View article]
    I don't disagree at all. I glance at many economic indicators, I invest fundamentally, but I trade technically.
    Oct 22, 2013. 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment