Seeking Alpha

Tony Roylance

 
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  • Looking To Go Long The S&P 500? Wait For A Better Entry [View article]
    Thanks for the comment LMH!
    I try to provide quality research for my articles on SA, each one takes me a few hours to research and write, so I haven't had time to do one, but I will work on one this week. As of right now, indicators are still saying to be long the market. If you are completely out of the market, I would recommend you average in until you reach about 70 or 80% percent invested in equities (which I imagine would be the appropriate asset allocation for you, it is for most people). I would hold back the remaining until we see decent weakness in a correction. It's tempting to pull the trigger at all time highs and immediately go 100%, but that's what amateurs do, not professional traders like us. One must be like a sniper and wait for the right shot to come, even if it means missing a few decent shots. There's no worse feeling than going 100% long and then a day or 2 later watching the Dow drop over 200 points, etc. Those days will be here soon enough, and while you'll be reading articles on here from other contributors saying it's time to panic and run for the hills you and I will be quietly picking up shares on the cheap.
    Thanks for the comment and the follow!
    Nov 18 10:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking To Go Long The S&P 500? Wait For A Better Entry [View article]
    JQ, I would like to give you a market outlook that goes out that far, but there are just way too many variables to factor in that I don't want to even speculate. To me, yes the market seems overbought. But I also traded through the tech bubble and valuations then were simply insane. In fact, valuations isn't even a fair word because many of those companies had no value at all!
    This market can absolutely go higher, my long-term strategy indicates to still be in the market, but now it appears that the S&P 500 and other market indexes have gotten ahead of themselves.
    Before you deploy your strategy, you have to clearly specify what is your "edge", then develop it, and test it to make sure that it makes sense intuitively and has positive performance in the market.
    For my long-term strategy I came to the conclusion that money, flow of funds, supply and demand, is what ultimately dictates whether the market is going to keep going up. Keep in mind, the higher a market goes up the more money it takes to keep it afloat. If fund flows drop or stay stagnant, the market will fall. Then I developed sources of data to include in that strategy and backtested it to make sure it truly worked. That is my edge, it took me a very long time of daily constant study of the market for years to develop it, and it was a very expensive lesson for me. As a new discretionary trader I will tell you I was cut to pieces.
    good luck and feel free to contact me if you'd like to discuss ideas, I'm very busy at the moment but enjoy meeting people.
    Oct 23 09:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking To Go Long The S&P 500? Wait For A Better Entry [View article]
    thanks for the follow! I hope to provide actionable investing and trading ideas.
    Oct 22 10:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking To Go Long The S&P 500? Wait For A Better Entry [View article]
    Thank you, and I've appreciated your comments. Actually, no I'm not saying that a correction is imminent, the chart of NQH's vs. NQL's is there to show that the current conditions were present prior to the last correction, and that we need to be cautious at these levels.
    I mentioned the stochastics oscillator to show the locations of "ideal" buy points. As shown by the chart, an investor who had deployed her money at each of those levels (and by the way, you buy when the oscillator reaches an oversold level and turns back up), would be a very happy person right now.
    Spotting tops is much more difficult. I have backtested and researched hundreds of indicators looking for one that successfully identifies most market tops. I have not found a single indicator that does it effectively. I have found several market breadth indicators that are effective, such as the advance/decline line, new highs vs. new lows, and new quarterly highs vs. new quarterly lows.
    Oct 22 06:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking To Go Long The S&P 500? Wait For A Better Entry [View article]
    In that case I used full stochastics, but the Stochastic Momentum Index is also a great indicator for this exercise.
    Oct 22 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking To Go Long The S&P 500? Wait For A Better Entry [View article]
    I don't disagree at all. I glance at many economic indicators, I invest fundamentally, but I trade technically.
    Oct 22 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking To Go Long The S&P 500? Wait For A Better Entry [View article]
    This is actually a modification of dollar cost averaging. Instead of blindly buying at regular intervals, you build up your cash account waiting for oversold levels. At that point you are presumably buying at a more favorable risk/reward level. This is a strategy for building up a retirement account. This particular strategy does not give sell signals.
    Oct 22 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking To Go Long The S&P 500? Wait For A Better Entry [View article]
    in that example, yes. I have backtested different parameters extensively and for our general purposes the 14,3,3 works fine.
    Oct 22 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The S&P 500 Just Top? [View article]
    Thanks for the comment!
    Sep 25 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The S&P 500 Just Top? [View article]
    Yes, it could be the top for this cycle, however the confirming signals aren't indicating that......yet.....
    Sep 24 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The S&P 500 Just Top? [View article]
    I wholeheartedly agree. What I see happening now is company retirement plans are so full of upfront sales charges, transaction fees, maintenance fees, and redemption fees, that a lot of the wealth investors ARE able to accumulate is taken from them as well. If it's not "the game" taking money away from them, it's "the house".
    I would advise all readers of this article to get their latest 401k or retirement plan fund statement and go here:
    http://bit.ly/16nP3yZ
    type in some of the mutual funds in your plan and as a comparison type in 'VOO' the Vanguard 500 Index fund. Scroll down to where the fees and sales charges are given. I believe you'll be shocked.
    As Americans we have no choice to put money into the market in order to save for retirement. I would be more than happy to talk more about these topics, feel free to send me an email.
    Tony
    Sep 24 07:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The S&P 500 Just Top? [View article]
    Possible, but they replaced it with the big "Axe" on the Street, Goldman Sachs. I believe they realized they would get more bang for their buck from the venerable Goldman than BofA. Goldman will make money in all kinds of environments no matter what happens, very entrenched in the American political and financial landscape. That speaks of a bigger issue, as 80% of Americans (my estimate, not based on anything scientific) only look at the Dow to see how "the market" is doing, constantly replacing the lagging companies with those that are doing well may not quite be a completely accurate picture of the state of the U.S. economic engine. It is similar to a poorly run organization that obtains all sorts of accreditation and certificates to make things look like they are better than they really are, or in short "lipstick on a pig". Thanks for the comment
    Sep 23 10:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The S&P 500 Just Top? [View article]
    it absolutely could
    thanks for the comment
    Sep 23 10:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The S&P 500 Just Top? [View article]
    Yes absolutely, that's my take as well. Predicting the market is foolish, but knowing where you ARE is huge. Thanks for the comment
    Sep 23 10:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The S&P 500 Just Top? [View article]
    thank you for the kind words. Coming from you is quite the compliment. I hope I can continue to raise the bar.
    Thanks again
    Tony
    Sep 23 09:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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