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  • Long Chip Stocks - And Getting Longer [View article]
    Actually, I am not getting longer. I am waiting to get longer.
    Oct 17, 2008. 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TWM: An ETF Arbitrage Opportunity [View article]
    I have amended this post. My original assumptions were wrong. It was suggested I go back and do the math for the daily fluctuations, so I did. The difference over the month is not 8.9% like I thought but 0.75%, which is perfectly within the expected tracking error.

    I was aware that the ETF is constructed with daily fluctuations, had read the prospectus and had sat in on presentations by ETF companies. However, the dispersion seemed exceedingly wide. It is not.

    Sep 30, 2008. 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Start Looking for a Bottom? [View article]

    Yes. I am positioned for a bounce, then expect the market to roll over. I am looking for an ultimate bottom next year.
    Aug 17, 2008. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull or Bear Market? [View article]

    That may be, and I can certainly accept that. I mark tops and bottoms as the ultimate top and the ultimate bottom when constructing my frameworks.

    Having said that, after the March bottom, the Dow rose 3.6% twice as the market bounced, which was a higher return than on Tuesday. I think its more appropriate to use percentages than point gains.

    Aug 8, 2008. 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs: An Update [View article]

    Your point is well taken. If you have the flexibility and the skill to trade around the position and add value that way, good for you. Due to restrictions at my firm, I can't jump in and out of positions. Also, it is not my initial position. I went massively short REITs last winter, covered in January then re-established a smaller position in February. I was looking to cover in March but the SRS didn't hit $130 as I expected. I have tended to do pretty well being value conscious, but it didn't work out that way.


    I calculate FFO by downloading components to calculate the metric from Bloomberg. Maybe I'm doing it wrong, I don't know. But I am more interested in how they compare to stocks, as well as using other metrics such as dividend yield, cash flow, etc. I have also found over the years that FFO can differ from analyst to analyst, just like the term "free cash flow" often does. Goldman put out a piece during the week saying REIT FFO was 16x, which is helluva lot different than mine, and stating that historically, REITs have traded at 10x-11x, so they think valuation is even more stretched than I do. Obviously, use the calculation that works best for you.


    I'm not sure what the time frame is, other than to say I think the market is in a trading range for a couple of years, maybe with a downward bias. There certainly could be more upside from here as the path of least resistance is up at the moment. I think earnings will come in weaker than expected over the year as analysts are expecting growth of ~5%. I think that is too high given the current environment. I don't believe any economic collapse is coming, but I think the economy will move in fits and starts and grow below trend for some time. On underperformance, REITs have returned double the market since they hit their low in January. Of course, they fell over 40% in 2007, but that was after a monster run the previous five years. A month ago, I thought that REITs would probably trade in line or so with the market as valuations had gone from being idiotic last year to a bit expensive. Now they are getting expensive again. I think investors are going to be sorely disappointed in the IRRs investing in real estate, and expect stocks to outperform REIT over the next ~5 years.

    Apr 26, 2008. 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs: An Update [View article]

    The data comes from Bloomberg. I use the components of the IYR and calculate the data using a weighted average. It may not represent the actual IYR. For example, the actual dividend yield for the IYR is lower than what I compile out of Bloomberg. I also similarly compile data for all the REITs in the Russell 3000 and do a similar calculation, which provides slightly but not dramatically different results.

    I think the path of least resistance in the near term is up. I had written not too long ago that I did not think REITs would underperform the broad market, and that I was using it as a market hedge as much as anything. However, since the Dow Jones US Real Estate index is up over double the market since it hit its low in January, I am beginning to think it will underperform over the intermediate term.
    Apr 25, 2008. 08:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commercial Property Prices Continue to Fall [View article]

    I'm sorry, I don't have the data for the UK and Germany, though I have read the same facts you have and have no reason to doubt them.
    Mar 29, 2008. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oversold U.S. Market Gets Even More Oversold [View article]
    Thanks for the comments.

    I do believe that we are setting up for a very hard bounce in the near future. I just don't know if it is at these levels or 10% lower.
    Jan 20, 2008. 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oversold U.S. Market Gets Even More Oversold [View article]
    Bill Shivers

    You are absolutely correct. I did not phrase it properly.

    For whatever you have used it for, I have found MACD and other technical indicators useful at extremes. I want to see many different indicators pointing at extremes. What I was trying to get across in the article was that MACD - and other indicators - may be at an extreme, but they have gotten more extreme in the past.

    Apparently, judging by the comments, I did a poor job of doing so.
    Jan 19, 2008. 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oversold U.S. Market Gets Even More Oversold [View article]
    Oh, and just to remind readers, most of what I right is fundamental. You can see the two links at the top on the left for other SeekingAlpha articles and at my site. I was trained at one of Canada's best buy-side shops which didn't even look at what the market was doing on any given day, instead looking deep into the company and financials back ten years and forward five. However, I have found that for short-term buying and selling, fundamentals are useless and what matters are the technicals. In the long-run, however, what matters most are the fundamentals. Technicals help you with your entry and exit points but fundamentals are why you invest.
    Jan 19, 2008. 08:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oversold U.S. Market Gets Even More Oversold [View article]
    I just wanted to re-iterate this phrase

    "One of the many metrics I use to gauge the market"

    I was highlighting one of many.

    Jan 19, 2008. 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Emerging Markets Too Hot? [View article]

    You can establish short exposure through the ProShares, UltraShort Emerging Markets ETF, ticker EEV. It moves at 2x the opposite way of the MSCI Emerging Markets index.

    Hope that helps.

    Jan 16, 2008. 11:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs: No Longer Over-Valued [View article]

    Sorry for not being clearer. The ProShares UltraShort ETFs give you short exposure when you buy the ETF. Thus, if REITs rise, then the value of the SRS falls, which is why I say I'll buy the SRS when it hits $100-$110.

    Hope that helps.

    Jan 16, 2008. 11:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Look What They're Saying About the Housing Market [View article]
    If housing prices haven't fallen if they haven't been sold, does it also not reason that if the price never went up either?

    Clearly, housing prices have fallen. You cannot take out a home equity loan today at the price of your house that you could have a year ago.
    Dec 15, 2007. 10:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Do Falling Profit Margins Say About the Market? [View article]
    Sources are Bloomberg, Standard and Poor's and Barron's.
    Dec 14, 2007. 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment