After a six year trial run at picking and timing, I have primarily returned to the passive index investing which served well for a long time. Going forward, I will hold 65-70% in broad domestic and international stock funds, 25-30% in an aggregate bond fund, and 5% in cash and CDs. This is a comfortable portfolio for us, and my wife could easily manage it if I should die or become disabled. The picking experiment only produced much greater risk and complexity for essentially the same return, and I was not improving as time went by. Except for rare instances of market panic (during which I may still briefly put on my trader's hat) I could find no reliable basis for distinguishing between fair value and current price. Price represents the cumulative assessment of all publicly available company information by tens of thousands of investors willing to put their money where their mouth is. Some of them are probably less informed or diligent than me, but many are surely moreso. So why should my best take on fair value be superior to their collective assessment as represented by current price? I could not answer that question, so I got out.