Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Total Return Investor  

View Total Return Investor's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • I Still Think The Market Is Wrong On McDonald's [View article]
    "Eating at McDonald's can kill your libido and sperm." Congratulations, Cereal. You are the Gen. Jack D. Ripper and McDonalds the Commies for a new generation.

    General Jack D. Ripper: A foreign substance is introduced into our precious bodily fluids without the knowledge of the individual. Certainly without any choice. That's the way your hard-core Commie works.
    Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: Uh, Jack, Jack, listen... tell me, tell me, Jack. When did you first... become... well, develop this theory?
    General Jack D. Ripper: [somewhat embarassed] Well, I, uh... I... I... first became aware of it, Mandrake, during the physical act of love.
    Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: Hmm.
    General Jack D. Ripper: Yes, a uh, a profound sense of fatigue... a feeling of emptiness followed. Luckily I... I was able to interpret these feelings correctly. Loss of essence.
    Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: Hmm.
    ---"Dr.Strangelove," 1964
    Oct 31, 2015. 09:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs No Substitute For Physical Gold In A Crisis [View article]
    And be sure to lay in a good supply of MREs and physical lead (as in bullets). A fella's got to be prepared.
    Oct 31, 2015. 08:39 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Still Think The Market Is Wrong On McDonald's [View article]
    Vince, your presentation of MCD's secular image problem is the best I have read. Like clothing and entertainment, your choice of a place to eat out is about much more than simply nutrition and price. Each generation wants its own cultural landmarks, not those of its parents or grandparents. McDonald's is today's fading cultural wallflower, Starbucks will be tomorrow's, and so on. Once the intangibles have moved past a company in a faddish industry, there is nothing it can do to regenerate the magic.
    Oct 31, 2015. 08:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Financially Sound But Growth Cannot Be Relied Upon [View article]
    "On the other hand, the demand for natural gas is a consequence of millions of individual decisions of persons and institutions, and those depend on the price of gas, which KMI has no influence of."

    KMI's lack of influence over the price of natgas should be the least of our worries. Here are the questions that should matter for the long term investor. Is there a growing demand for natgas? Yes, demand is growing exponentially in electrical generation, industrial production, and chemical feedstocks. Will the demand continue to grow? Yes, at least until supplies run dry or renewables supplant it, and that day is well in the future (if ever). Are pipelines the effective way to transport it? Yes, they are the only way--at least until you compress it and get it on a boat.

    With those fundamental questions answered, the long term investor should step back and trust the markets and an experienced management team whose interests are aligned with the investor's to sort out the details. They always do.

    Oct 31, 2015. 07:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Financially Sound But Growth Cannot Be Relied Upon [View article]
    "The dividend is the only thing propping up the stock." Maybe the stock price, but not the company. KMI owns the premier network for transporting natgas, a commodity whose demand is predicted to grow 40% over the next decade in the U. S. In addition natgas export to Mexico is growing and LNG export overseas are about to commence. Natgas accounts for well over half KMI's earnings.

    The market will eventually work its magic. As the glut of natgas causes production to fall while demand continues to grow, pricing balance will eventually tip to favor the industry once again, including the transporters. The only question is how long this process will take.

    In the meantime, if a distribution cut, or even no distribution, is required for KMI to make ends meet, so be it. In this respect KMI is no different from any rapidly growing company. While it may no longer be suitable as a DGI investment for someone needing monthly income, it certainly is suitable from the standpoint of long term total return.
    Oct 30, 2015. 02:48 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Idiot's Guide To Asset Allocation [View article]
    For someone like my grandson, who has just begun his career, only one asset allocation makes sense: put 100% of your investing income into a broad market ETF and forget you own it until much further down the road. Over that long a period, time will heal all wounds, although the market will surely experience some tough times between now at 2055.

    The 45 year return on the S&P500 is 10.5%, and a fund that included small caps would have done even slightly better. In contrast the 45 year return of aggregate bonds is 7.9%.
    Oct 28, 2015. 09:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time In The Market More Important Than Timing The Market [View article]
    Here's another article that reaches the same conclusion:
    Oct 27, 2015. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Procter & Gamble Righting The Ship? [View article]
    Yep. I even checked the dateline to see if this article was dated 2009 or earlier. Morningstar says FV of $90, S&P says $71.20.
    Oct 27, 2015. 02:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Put The Brakes On The Breakout? [View article]
    While I am disappointed, I am not terribly surprised by the incidence of fake peer reviews. While the protocols of science make it more resistant to cheating, faddishness, dogmatism, and other enemies of truth, they do not make it entirely immune. In the final analysis science is a human activity, subject to the usual human foibles. This is something we ignore at our own risk when we speak of "established scientific truth" in areas barely a quarter century old.
    Oct 25, 2015. 07:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: What To Do After Yesterday's Shell Shock [View article]
    "The more significant point is how they are going to finance the pipeline of new projects to continue growing." Maybe I am being naive, but isn't this problem the very best kind of problem to have? As long as basic demand is growing (which is true in spades for the transportation of natgas), the inevitable expansion will occur and will get paid for. And if it is paid for by diverting cash flow from unitholder distributions to capex, so what? Berkshire Hathaway holders have gotten rich because they rightly believed that Buffett could be trusted to put BH earnings to better use than they could. I think Rich Kinder is in the same league.
    Oct 24, 2015. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: What To Do After Yesterday's Shell Shock [View article]
    Vince, neither do I. Either we are missing something, or the market is missing something. Of course it is worrisome, but the bottom line is that natgas usage continues to increase dramatically, and pipelines are the only way to transport it.
    Oct 24, 2015. 07:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 3% Dividend Play [View article]
    I took my profits and exited WR yesterday. That 18.3 p/e was getting too elevated for my blood. I will be back when it returns to a more normal sub-15.
    Oct 23, 2015. 08:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: What To Do After Yesterday's Shell Shock [View article]
    Fred, my sentiments exactly.
    Oct 23, 2015. 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: What To Do After Yesterday's Shell Shock [View article]
    And besides half their business is natgas. How are you going to ship that by rail? Or their CO2 business by rail? Pipelines are the only way to transport a lot of important stuff.
    Oct 23, 2015. 08:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: What To Do After Yesterday's Shell Shock [View article]
    With apologies to Shakespeare, "neither a buyer nor a seller be." Don't sell for the reasons given in the article above. Don't buy yet, because KMI is not underpriced. According to Fastgraphs, its price/cash flow ratio has fallen until it is just about exactly on KMI's 6 year norm, which is as far back as the data go. With 2016 cash flow estimated to decline another couple of percent I would not be surprised to see it decline below $25, which is where I will be adding. Long and holding.
    Oct 23, 2015. 12:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment