Seeking Alpha

Trace Mayer

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Trace Mayer's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • The Arithmetic of Gold: Why Its Price Has No Ceiling [View article]
    JudeJin, perhaps accuracy should start with you. Alan Greenspan testified twice before Congress saying 'Central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise.' Central banks carry gold in the vault and gold out on loan as the same line item; in effect they report cash and accounts receivables as the same thing. As a result, central banks have only 1/2 to 1/3 of the physical gold as reported on their balance sheets. This means they hold not 30,000 tons but more like 8-15,000 tons of physical metal. All of this has been thoroughly documented by publicly available documents.

    www.runtogold.com/2005.../


    On Oct 07 09:21 AM JudeJin wrote:

    > whoever comments on gold please get the facts straight. central banks
    > only have 30000 tons of gold. the fed has 8000 tons, china's central
    > bank has 1000 tons. at today's price, china's fx reserve can buy
    > around 60000 tons of gold, that's 30 years of world's production.
    >
    >
    > the world only has around 150000 tons of gold ever mined since the
    > big bang.
    Oct 7, 2009. 10:51 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potential COMEX Gold Fail [View article]
    kohalakid, you raise a good issue and the response from writers like myself is:

    Silver and gold are not merely valuable commodities, investments, and media of exchange. More importantly, they are key "checks and balances" in America's legal and political institutions.

    The fight against the use of silver and gold as money that has been waged by bankers and rogue politicians since the 1870s as to silver and the 1930s as to gold -- and will intensify as fiat currencies collapse throughout the world in The Great Credit Contraction -- is ultimately directed against America's national independence, her constitutional government, and every common American's individual liberty and prosperity.

    The price of gold has been manipulated for two reasons, one being the suppression of evidence, the other the throttling of monetary evolution.

    That is why careful observers conclude that the paranoia being generated by politicians and the big media over "homeland security" -- and the frenetic para-militarization of law-enforcement agencies at the national, state, and even local levels in the name of "homeland security" -- are not caused by or aimed at foreign "terrorists" at all, but instead target ordinary Americans in their own home towns.

    The establishment is preparing to force justifiably angry Americans into line when its financial house of cards comes tumbling down, either in a controlled demolition or otherwise.

    Americans will not be the only victims of such repression. Because gold and silver are mortal enemies and competitors to fiat currency therefore the establishment must prevent other peoples, in other parts of the world, from jumping off the financial treadmill of political currency. That will require the use not only of economic and political pressure, but also -- indeed, especially -- of military coercion. For the provision of which the establishment will attempt to force common Americans to pay, and to send their sons and even their daughters off to fight, die, and be maimed and sickened in foreign lands.

    Little good, then, will it do for an ounce of gold to soar to $2,000, $3,000, or higher -- and for silver to increase in value proportionately too -- if the ultimate consequences are a police state in America, then a supra-national regime replacing the United States, accompanied by endless military conflicts throughout the world.

    In the grand scheme of things, gold and silver are far less important as economic investments or hedges against hyperinflation or depression than as guarantors of individual freedom -- and then to the fullest extent only when they are actually used as media of exchange throughout society. Silver and gold as currencies supply the foundation necessary for economic democracy and limited government; whereas fiat currencies inevitably function as the tools of fascism, socialism, and every other form of financial imperialism.

    Thus, the fight over gold and silver as media of exchange is about more than mere money, let alone making money. For it is a fight with only two possible outcomes: either control of their own lives by the people themselves, or control of the people and their lives by political and economic elitists. To achieve the first and avoid the second no price will prove too great to pay. Indeed, America is once again being faced with the question: Repression or Regeneration?

    Indeed, I do not write for money; I have way more of that than I will ever need. Currently, we have the freedom of speech but what have you said? You have the freedom to write but what have you written? My answer is neither deafening silence nor advocation or apology for the use of violence against innocent people or the legitimately acquired property.


    On Jun 19 02:46 PM kohalakid wrote:

    > I still can't figure out why writers like Trace continue to push
    > this "paper gold conspiracy" thing. First, I don't believe it exists,
    > but second, if it does, all it's doing is allowing everyone to buy
    > more precious metals at the supposedly "artificially depressed" prices.
    >
    >
    > Why wouldn't I want that to continue???
    >
    Jun 19, 2009. 03:37 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the GLD ETF Really Worth Its Metal? [View article]
    Consider_this, exactly. Given some of the unethical behavior of the players involved in the ETF which I discussed in the first article even more cause for prudence and caution may be required.

    The due diligence does not matter until it is the only thing that matters.


    On Feb 19 09:39 AM Consider_this wrote:

    > In that spirit, I applaud the author for bringing up issues to be
    > examined. With Wall street integrity the way it is, We need more
    > inquisitive minds like these.
    Feb 19, 2009. 10:02 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin: Buyer Beware, This Is A Classic Bubble And Possible Fraud [View article]
    Yes, completely irrelevant. Bitcoin is merely math fixed in source code. And everyone has all of the source code all of the time. The ideas stand independent of any individual.
    Apr 7, 2013. 08:33 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vietnam: Gold Already Trading at $1,300 Per Ounce [View article]
    Nice Roger! You honed in on the issue: What is an ounce? A tael is 37.429 grams. There are 28.35 grams per ounce and 31.1 grams per troy ounce.

    Would sure be nice if we could likewise resolve the issue: What is a dollar?

    www.runtogold.com/2009.../

    What in the world are we talking about Berkshire in this thread for?

    On Nov 13 08:56 AM Roger Knights wrote:

    > PS: What I mean is this: were ordinary ounces used in the conversion
    > from taels?
    Nov 13, 2009. 01:13 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin: Buyer Beware, This Is A Classic Bubble And Possible Fraud [View article]
    Robert,

    The Bitcoin economy has greatly evolved since the last bubble. VCs are starting to chime in on the potential like Jeremy Liew who wrote ' ‘In all the scenarios that I’ve painted above, Bitcoin prices need to go up by 100x or more.’

    Then you have the fundamental analysis by Adam Draper, an established VC, who will ‘incubate 5-7 Bitcoin related companies in our next batch‘. Why? The reasons stated earlier are: (1) increased investor confidence in the Bitcoin protocol, (2) reduced legal uncertainty from FinCEN guidelines, (3) Cyprus bank deposit seizures, (4) current adoption by large tech companies like WordPress, Reddit, Expensify and Namecheap and (5) the rising price where he stated ‘My prediction – Bitcoin hits $225 by August.’

    And for those who think there is a massive Bitcoin bubble. The last bubble went from $0.05 to about $32 and unlike so many who are calling this a bubble I know what it felt like back then because I was there. For a comparable move the bitcoin price would need to move from about $5 to around $3,200, a 20x rise from current prices, and we are only about 5% up this ‘wall of worry’.

    So while you lay out some points for the bear case I think it is good for investors to read the bull case:

    http://bit.ly/Y79AxY
    Apr 7, 2013. 08:29 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin Market Not A Bubble And Still Highly Undervalued [View article]
    There are lot of fundamentals undergirding the Bitcoin market. SeekingAlpha has refused several times to publish my articles on Bitcoin citing lack of public understanding of the financial instrument so I have just published them over here:

    http://bit.ly/Y79AxY

    In summary, (1) increased investor confidence in the Bitcoin protocol, (2) reduced legal uncertainty from FinCEN guidelines, (3) Cyprus bank deposit seizures, (4) current adoption by large tech companies like WordPress, Reddit, Expensify and Namecheap and (5) the rising price where he stated ‘My prediction – Bitcoin hits $225 by August.’

    And for those who think there is a massive Bitcoin bubble. The last bubble went from $0.05 to about $32 and unlike so many who are calling this a bubble I know what it felt like back then because I was there. For a comparable move the bitcoin price would need to move from about $5 to around $3,200, a 20x rise from current prices, and we are only about 5% up this ‘wall of worry’. And like usual, Scoreboard, because we are playing this game for financial keeps.
    Apr 9, 2013. 01:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Goldman Sachs Thinking of Buying Silver? [View article]
    Maxe Paul, that is a good question. The time issue is with the javascript from the application used and I see this all the time. I used the screen capture because of its ease of use; otherwise I would have to use raw server logs and they would not be nearly as pretty. I suppose I could go look at the server logs to know the exact visitor path, all the pages they went to and how long they spent on each one, etc. but to be honest I would rather jog down the beach ;)

    On the other hand, I got an email from a long-time reader from Sweden and he wrote,

    "I read your latest article today about a Goldman employee researching buying silver.

    It look like JPMorgan has taken this one step further.

    I just sold some silver on Ebay to a person with a JPMorgan.com email adress...

    Maybe they are trying to buy physical to cover their shorts ;-)"
    Feb 25, 2010. 11:31 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rises, the Dollar Falls: Is This Really a Good Thing? [View article]
    Trader Mark, You are right that this rise for the monetary metal is just getting started because of the unwinding of the gold carry trade and start of the dollar carry trade. Mr. Alan Greenspan testified twice before Congress saying 'Central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise.' Central banks carry gold in the vault and gold out on loan as the same line item; in effect they report cash and accounts receivables as the same thing. As a result, central banks have only 1/2 to 1/3 of the physical gold as reported on their balance sheets.

    This means they hold not 30,000 tons but more like 8-15,000 tons of physical metal. All of this has been thoroughly documented by publicly available documents. To add further pressure the dollar is now becoming the carry trade currency. The unwinding of that massive central bank position will be extremely bullish for the monetary metals priced in their fiat coupons. As the value of their fiat currency coupons are valued like the common stock of nations and because of gold's rise in all major currencies it does not bode well for governments worldwide.

    www.runtogold.com/2005.../
    Oct 7, 2009. 11:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan's Dividend Payout Rate Is Unsustainable [View article]
    @145964, I think it is organic also and receives tax breaks as being part of the green economy.

    Paul, in all seriousness, you may want to take your stripes with this one and learn. Passion and diligence are essential traits for being a successful financial commentator and I think you have both. You do need to tighten your arguments, use more relevant analogies, refine the organization, polish the language and correct the factual ambiguities and errors. We work with words and they are to be clear, concise and accurate.

    For example, PWE is not a 'stock' but it is 'an open-ended, unincorporated investment trust'. Stocks are shares of ownership of a company. PWE is a trust with units.

    It takes courage, or stupidity, to throw your ideas into the battlefield for public scrutiny. The Seeking Alpha audience is very sophisticated. Poorly communicated or weak ideas get thrashed pretty quickly. Most read, few comment and the rare elite actually craft an article for publication. Critics are people with no legs who tell people how to run.

    With experience the better your writing will become and the larger your audience. But tasty investor food attracts plenty of trolls and haters. I know as I get plenty because of my subject matter. But do not mistake the trolls for genuine constructive criticism, which I think the majority of the comments have been. Take your lumps with this article and keep on trucking; it will be water under the bridge in a week.


    On Jul 28 01:18 PM User 145964 wrote:

    > Natural gasoline pipelines??
    Jul 31, 2009. 12:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Going On With Gold? [View article]
    Mr. Robert Landis, a graduate of Princeton University, Harvard Law School and member of the New York Bar, has asserted that “Any rational person who continues to dispute the existence of the rig [gold price suppression scheme by central banks] after exposure to the evidence is either in denial or is complicit.”

    Therefore, it appears the Pragmatic Capitalist is either ignorant of or in denial towards key material information or is complicit in the rig.

    At all times and in all circumstances gold remains money. It has always proven to be the most powerful currency in the history of the world. Why should it be any different this time? Sure, the FRN$ is putting up a rather strong 38 year fight but gold is undefeated over the past 5,000 years. The FRN$ is on its way to fiat currency graveyard like all of its predecessors and when viewed in proper historical context the FRN$ will be yet another immaterial challenger to gold's dominance as a currency.
    Jan 9, 2009. 01:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem with GLD and SLV ETFs [View article]
    Hendi_alex, you are broadening the issue outside the scope as asserted in the article. The risks you raise do exist. Although the article does not contain the reasoning because of space it is implied and important to draw the distinction between tangential risks (exchange rate risk, performance risk, etc.) which assets are subject to because of relative valuation, pricing, property law, etc. and inherent risks (counter-party risk, credit risk, payment risk, etc.) which gold is not subject to because of its attributes.

    Top Gun, I doubt you understand the definition of counter-party risk and consequently do not distinguish it from performance risk. The key distinguishing element is the financial ability of the counter-party to perform. The other issues are addressed in hendi_alex's answer.
    Dec 14, 2008. 11:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga Accepts Bitcoin, And Savings May Be Material To Earnings [View article]
    haleiwahu, you are beginning to understand that Bitcoin is like *invisible glue* that enables the transfer of value, in any form, between two or more servers (locations, countries, companies, accounts, etc.).
    Jan 8, 2014. 02:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pairs Trade to Exploit NAV Premium in Physical Gold Fund vs. GLD [View article]
    Here are some excerpts from a couple articles I wrote about the GLD ETF that may be relevant to the discussion:

    Page 11 states “Neither the Trustee nor the Custodian independently confirms the fineness of the gold allocated to the Trust in connection wtih the creation of a Basket [issuances].” Page 12 “In issuing Baskets, the Trustee relies on certain information received from the Custodian which is subject to confirmation after the Trustee has relied on the information. If such information turns out to be incorrect, Baskets may be issued in exchange for an amount of gold which is more or less than the amount of gold which is required to be deposited with the Trust.” There is no assurance that the ‘gold’ held in the ETFs is actually the same gold as defined under the periodic table.

    www.runtogold.com/2008.../

    The latest 10-K ( Commission File Number 000-32356) on pages 26 and 18 respectively: ” Gold held by the Custodian’s currently selected subcustodians and by subcustodians of subcustodians may be held in vaults located in England or in other locations.” and “In addition, the Trustee has no right to visit the premises of any subcustodian for the purposes of examining the Trust’s gold or any records maintained by the subcustodian, and no subcustodian is obligated to cooperate in any review the Trustee may wish to conduct of the facilities, procedures, records or creditworthiness of such subcustodian.”

    www.runtogold.com/2009.../
    May 11, 2010. 11:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: An Ugly Chart in Just About Any Currency [View article]
    Why no mention of the looming sovereign debt downgrades with Portugal or Japan? Why not mention of the next round of the credit crisis with its catalyst in Austria? Both will have tremendous effect on the Yen and Euro. Just tea reading? We saw how well that worked for all the black boxes last time there was a credit crisis...

    aussiereader4, what effect do you think legal tender laws and tax codes have on gold? Gold is a competing currency to the little colored coupons and those laws are regulatory barriers to entry that attempt to prevent its circulation in ordinary daily transactions by raising the cost. This decreased velocity leads to a decline in the value of the metal because of its decreased demand from resulting from less utility.

    Then there are the mountains of evidence acquired by GATA that shows the central banks only have 1/3rd to 1/2th of the physical gold they claim:
    www.runtogold.com/2005.../

    One only has to understand the world's liquidity pyramid to understand gold's role in the world economy. Because gold abuts the little colored coupons it will generally have an inverse correlated relationship when priced in the synthetic commodities but that does not mean it will decline in purchasing power.

    www.creditcontraction....
    Jan 28, 2010. 05:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
151 Comments
176 Likes