Trade In Mexico

Trade In Mexico
Contributor since: 2012
William- you have to have guts to be in CHK right now...I can't buy CHK but I agree with your premise on potential green shoots for some badly beaten down stocks. I do think there could be a significant "dash for trash" rally in many $1 to $5 oil stocks, the only question is when.
One thing I have noticed lately is that it seems like SVU is weak in the mornings and then often closes much stronger by the end of each day. I am not sure if this is just a coincidence or if there is some manipulation going on with one or more shorts who try to attack it in the early morning and then cover by the end of the day....Mornings might be the best time to buy...
Supervalu is dirt-cheap now and the chart shows it has put in a bottom, next step is for a gap up rally. Supervalu's undervaluation is really clear when compared to JCP which is trading for nearly twice the price even as it is losing money and has more debt and far less revenue than SVU.
I think there is going to be a major up day soon in Supervalu which will be fueled in part by short covering as well as the fact that it is tremendously undervalued and a very safe industry (groceries) in times of economic uncertainty.
William, the markets are extremely oversold....the negativity and pessimism is also at extreme levels. While bearish articles look good on days like today and have for the past months, at some point there could be a huge rebound which will make all of the sky is falling fears look silly in hindsight.
The CNN Money "Fear & Greed" Index is at 18....As shown below, the index has a current reading of less than 20 out of 100 which indicates "extreme fear". Historically when fear reaches this level it has been a great buying opportunity and major rallies took stocks much higher.
jackahh- There were multiple insiders buying at about $5 just a few months ago.With all the deals they have had going, I think there has been a significant blackout period which has not enabled them to buy. But maybe we will see more insider buying now that earnings have been released. Insider buying is nice but it is not everything. One thing is for sure is that we have not seen any insider selling!
Tomnow3, as usual you are wrong again about GNW. A 13 G filed on January 22, 2016 shows that Blackrock now has a 9.6% stake in Genworth. See for yourself in the link below, and please do everyone a favor and stop posting incorrect nonsense here:
user, GNW paid 2016 debt off at full value, it was $300 million face value not $400.
You snidely said:
"You really need a reality distortion field to see the latest developments as a positive. The management is clearly running out of options and the attempt to isolate LTC smells of desperation. Why didn't they do it earlier?"
So let me tell you a few things: You are wrong, and management is not desperate, there are many options, you just are not informed enough to understand what is possible and what the strategy is here. Management DID NOT do this before because it wanted to take the charges on LTC (to correct levels) so that it could spend the next year or so building a case for major premium increases with regulators, and that is exactly what it did. Now that LTC premium increases averaging about 29% on about $700 million have been approved, LTC division will add about $210 million to bottom line in 2016, from these increases. When you couple that with the fact that LTC just reported a $19 million quarterly profit, this division is now poised to be a healthy and profitable stand alone business and that is exactly why GNW management has waited until now to go forward with the separation of this unit.
Some of your other statements are such nonsense like suggesting book value could go to zero at this rate and GNW might not refinance 2020 debt is so foolish I am not going to even waste much time on this. One clue for you is that it probably won't refinance debt, it will just pay it off as it just did pay off $300 million in bonds in January 2016. Also, you don't seem to realize that GNW owns about 50% in Genworth Canada (MIC.TO) and Genworth Australia (GMA.AX) both of which are separate publicly traded companies with combined market cap of almost $4 billion. Maybe, just maybe these and other very significant income producers and assets GNW has can be used to service and/or refinance and/or pay off debt? Hopefully, you do more time thinking and research before posting speculative comments that have no basis.
Finally as to your ignorant dig that GNW is not an investment, why don't you take that silly claim up with Blackrock as they recently bought more shares and now own nearly 10% of Genworth or with the huge funds below that obviously choose to invest in GNW with 5% and 3% stakes rather than buy lottery tickets:
Ownership GNW More ...
Fund Owners Insiders
Name % Shares Held % Total
Assets Star Rating
Fidelity® Low-Priced Stock 5.38 0.30
T. Rowe Price Value 3.32 0.36
William, I agree with you, not everything is captured in something like tipranks and as I pointed out, I am not trying to be unkind. My concern is that with all the negativity out there, articles like this just cause some investors to get wrapped up in emotions, and sell out of fear which ALWAYS turns out to be a mistake in the very long term.
I actually agree and appreciate some of your very contrarian calls...However, with fear and greed index being at extreme fear levels, I don't think selling stocks now is a contrarian view. Every major pullback in the past few years has been a MAJOR OPPORTUNITY not another 2008 hide in your cave event. If you want to buy stocks cheap, you have to buy when negativity runs very high as it does now.
Wrong Jack, the market is always wrong in HINDSIGHT.....That is why CMG was about $700 a few months ago, and yet a few years ago it was about $40. It is also why GNW has been mis-priced multiple times in the past few years.
Melcapital, the market is OFTEN wrong and that is where HUGE opportunities are created for smart investors with conviction, knowledge and patience like Jonathan Booth. His article and the analysis is excellent. Furthermore, he has a history of analyzing and finding insurance stocks just as he did with Hartford (HIG) when the market mis-priced that stock and he made HUGE gains. His long-term track record speaks for itself.
Finally, if you know anything about the history of GNW, you would realize that the market has a history of totally mis-pricing this stock. More than once in the past few years, GNW was pushed down to the $2-$3 levels and multiple times it rebounded huge causing MASSIVE GAINS when it went back up to around $15 and $18 per share. This company is not going away, and it has significant assets which is what Jonathan has been trying to point out, especially now that the company is positioning itself for a break-up that will allow it to reach fair value.
GNW is poised to earn about 90 cents per share this year and even more going forward and it looks like every division of this company will post a profit in 2016. (Just as every division did this quarter except for the life due to a one time charge) If you don't want to buy a $2 stock that earns 90 cents per year, then I am not sure what you would buy in this market.
Finally, I take issue with your comment and implied strong belief in ratings firms like Moody's as some way to value this stock. Moody's is just doing what rating firms do and the new rating was only a slight change, furthermore they said the outlook was stable and could be revised up. However, do you remember when ratings firms downgraded U.S. government debt a few years ago???? How did following the advice on that HUGE call against U.S. Debt work out for you????
I agree with pgace123...ending life sales is another step towards separating all the profitable assets this company has...
Blackrock recently reported taking a near 10% stake in Genworth:
This market is so full of doom and gloom that it is reacted negatively to ALMOST ANY earnings results whether it is the record $18 billion plus in profits recently reported by Apple, huge profit, dividend increase, earnings beat, and $12 billion buyback with Gilead, same with GM, etc...
This market is not rewarding much of anything these days as it is full of pessimism.
Tortoise and the hare???? The fact is that STOCKS have paid off huge in the long run (if you want to be the tortoise, stocks are your game)....what do you have to say to that?
Ranthony1, we have see many of these scares in the past few years, remember when Greece was going to send us back to the stone ages, or Ebola, or Swine Flu, or SARS, reality is the world keeps going and stocks go higher over time....
We had this growth scare in August also and the market bounced right back. When the Fed does not raise rates and when China and Europe lowers rates, markets will rally and BIG!
@TimmiesRegular- I see your point but with this track record, it might pay to do the EXACT opposite of what Koldus says and buy stocks now! Is the world all that different because of a 1/4 point rate hike? I don't think so and long term it NEVER pays to be in cash, it pays to be in stocks!
When you see all these bears coming out, and many people agreeing, and you see the Fear and Greed Index at 18 out of 100 which is EXTREME FEAR levels, that has ALWAYS been an awesome buying opportunity, see the index here:
According to The author of this article "William Koldus" has one of the worst records with his calls. He has earned 1/2 a star out of 5 stars and only 16 out of his 40 calls have worked out and his average return is a loss of 14%:
I am not pointing this out to be unkind but rather because a number of his negative article titles have generated a lot of interest and I think people should know what his track record is before they follow his advice and get spooked out of their stocks.
There is some confusion in the press release so if you back out the non recurring charges which for some reason the company included in the operational loss it looks like the company earned 20 cents for the quarter.
Also, Dow Jones article says LTC division posted a $19 million profit for the quarter which is great news, and that means it could make a lot more money on this in 2016 because of the huge premium increases on LTC. Dow Jones article says:
"The long-term care business reported net operating income of $19 million, compared with a net operating loss of $10 million in the previous quarter and a net operating loss of $506 million in the year-ago period."
Supervalu is a screaming buy here...It should rebound back over $5 soon, plus some good news is out today that they lowered the interest rate and fees on their $1 billion credit facility:
I agree, I think this is way too alarmist, div looks very secure based on analyst estimates.
Thanks Brett!
Agreed, Gilead is dirt cheap. Investors who dump this high quality biotech because of a letter from AG or political posturing will regret it just as they did when healthcare stocks tanked under Clinton (and then rebounded huge), as that was a buying opportunity.
Remember when politicians where bad talking the oil industry for making too much money? Where are those fools now?
Also, it seems many investors don't realize that Harvoni is not at all as expensive as it is made out to be by the AG or compared to Merck's new drug because of significant rebates, plus it is still a far superior treatment. The list price that is used to get headlines is not the actual average selling price.
Supervalu (SVU) is dirt cheap and it should rebound back towards $6 to $7 in the coming weeks. Not only is is undervalued but it has a catalyst with a spinoff of Save A Lot it will do in the coming months, plus since it is groceries, it is recession proof which should comfort many investors now.
This is an alarmist title that is designed to generate clicks....just as the AG letter to GILD is designed to score political points, both of which I find disgusting.
If the author is scared to "hell" about GILD which is now trading at 7 times earnings, he needs to be out of stocks entirely and hide money under his mattress.
That AG is playing pure political games and it is disgusting!
Buba, Pharma Doc and Brett have not cost anyone money, you are responsible for your own actions and nothing is lost unless you foolishly sell during a market correction followed by an irrational plunge in GILD over politics and other overblown fears about Merck.
Pharma Doc and Brett could and likely will, ultimately prevail... and there is nothing wrong with them continuing to share their beliefs on this stock as being a bargain.
uyaredude- What you said could be said about any contributor that has written more than a few articles here. No one is right every time and if you have that expectation your money does not belong in the stock market.
The fact is that Hawkinvest has a more than 4 star rating out of 5 stars according to tip ranks, speaks for itself. Hawkinvest has had some big wins and some losers and much of it has to do with when you buy and when you sell. If a stock pick jumps and you fail to sell it and then it goes down (like in the market correction we just had) that is not the fault of any contributor on SA, that was your decision. Also, if you decide to sell a stock for a big loss during a pullback or in a market correction and then the stock ultimately goes much higher but you did panic selling that again is your mistake.
Furthermore, you said: "it cost me a lot" and if that is the case you bought too much stock and took on too much risk which is not something any contributor has control over. You have to take responsibility for your own decisions and actions.
Zoo1- I would usually agree with you but KR is not so much better at what it does to be worth a PE multiple of like 18 when you can buy SVU for about 6 times earnings. Here is the thing, KR has no spinoff planned (like SVU does) and there is very little chance KR share price can double in the next year or two. However, SVU could easily double from the currently beaten down levels, and therefore is far more attractive in terms of risk and reward.
This is just a normal market pullback and a buying opportunity. Anyone reading this article should take this guys advice with a grain of salt as he has a VERY POOR track record with his calls. According to William Koldus has earned 1/2 a star out of 5 stars and his average pick losses nearly 18%:
SVU is crazy cheap and it plans to spin off its Save A Lot division....
When you read Hawkinvest article on SVU you can see how cheap it is compared to stocks like JCP which trades for $7 and yet loses tons of money while SVU is profitable with eps of about 73 cents, and yet trades just for $4.35 article is here: