TraderMark

Whitney Tilson: The Housing Market Is Still in Trouble

I see you wrote your comment at 5:30 AM
about 3 hours before we saw unemployment rate jump 0.4%
and yes that unemployment rate is a bold faced lie.

And no more people dont need to become unemployed for these things to be come true (although more will) An extended period of joblessness (guaranteed in our economy) followed by any form of market based interest rates or lack of government subsidization$i.e. $8000 or $6500 handouts) will do the trick.

That said, it appears there is no end to government and central bank interference so many of Tilson's projections are simply going to take longer to reach.

Our real unemployment rate is mid teens and "marginally attached" is another 4-6%. We dont need any more job losses for all these outcomes to happen. Try to think where job creation will happen outside of healthcare and federal government. Many people are now structurally unemployed... their jobs are gone, period. They are not in the market for home purchases nor will be for a very long time.


On Nov 06 05:38 AM bbro wrote:

> Read Whitney Tilson's report...he requires two components for his
>
> gloomy forecast to be right continued ( i think substantial )job
> losses and price declines in
> home prices.....a lot of his data is lagging.....no doubt we have
> an inventory problem in housing but as each quarter goes by it is
> making
> it harder for these guys to support their bearish thesis....