TraderMark

Coach is the Real Retail 'Tell' Stock

Dan, I agree there is some dilution by the outlet mall stores, but I believe their Chairman/CEO has stated that they try to keep the outlets something like 70 miles away from normal stores, to avoid this as much as possible. I still believe its caters to many of this target group but your list of names is also a great list; also I would add RL (look at the 4-5 week stock performance, north of 100 down to low/mid 70s). WFMI is sort of hard to use as a tell simply due to the mess surrounding the Wild Oats aquisition and the stock has been in a fall for a year now due to slowing growth and entry into its turf by traditional grocers. TIF, LVHM, BMW can agree on those.

Amit, I like COH in the long(er) run due to their inevitable cache and expansion into China. COH is huge in Japan and many luxury brands are booming due to their new exposure in China. Chinese seem to love brands. SBUX is only staying afloat in terms of valuation due to this international expansion but coffee/food is a lot harder to transcend borders than a pretty purse. ;) But not enough sales are ex-Japan or US to help them in the near term. COH will probably be a great buying opportunity sometime here in 6-18 months in my opinion for the Chinese middle/upper class consumer play.