TraderMark

Wells Fargo's Mortgage Conversion Scheme: Delaying the Inevitable

bingo swissfrank

last I checked the homes have actual value

admitting the "new value" is what wells and all the other banks want to avoid admitting


On Nov 07 02:05 AM swissfrank wrote:

> You're missing the point, surely. If someone owes me $1000 for an
> ASSET and fails to repay, then I'll take back the ASSET when the
> repayment stops. This would happen with a car loan. What we are talking
> about here is a loan secured on an asset, not an unsecured cash loan.
> With an unsecured cash loan, sure, $10 a month is better than write-off.
>
>
> Imagine millions of newish cars being driven around by Americans
> who have largely stopped repaying their car loans while the finance
> companies offer cheap new payment options SO THAT THEY CAN KEEP THE
> CARS ON THEIR BOOKS AT ORIGINAL COST PRICE rather than have to account
> for the depreciated asset. That's where we are now.
>
> On Nov 06 09:05 PM fcharlie wrote:

Wells Fargo's Mortgage Conversion Scheme: Delaying the Inevitable

you do realize Wells Fargo would be in BK if not for the taxpayer?


On Nov 06 11:10 PM Brian Chan wrote:

> There're so many detractors for WFC. From traders like Tradermark
> to Dick Bove to Meredith Whitney. Many of them have all twisted and
> turned at some time, if not many, in their careers with their views.
> 50% of the time, they hit, the other 50 they missed. And when they
> miss, they change 360 degrees. Those actions are as described by
> Mr. Buffett as "throwing the dart and then drawing the bull eye around
> it." But one important guy whom has invested since 1991 till now
> is Berkshire Hathaway. Not only did they retain their stake, and
> trust in them, BRK seems to have increased their stake by a cost
> of $277 millions in the 3Q09 as can be seen from the latest 10Q report.

At the Bull-Bear Crossroads

After the 1929 crash - the only time wealth concentration paralled what we had in 2007 - the "free market" took over and "natural" wealth redistribution happened. It took a decade of pain to take things from extremes that were unsustainable to a point where "average Joe" was able to prosper... in fact one could say the 1950s was the greatest time for "joe 6 pack" in America, and 60s were relatively good as well.

Contrast that with the current crash when, due to inability to allow free market to reign, because politicians could lose their jobs, a mountain of interference has been the rule. Arguably the concentration of wealth and power is now greater than in 2007... actually three is no argument. Instead of the same adjustment that happened in the 1930s the 0.2% have been fortified and shielded, a political-financial elite who have used the crisis to even further entrench themselves while giving happy talk to the masses.

Not 1 item has really been changed from what got us here, in fact many of the same things that took us here have been further entrenched. We have bigger and badder financial oligarchs now fully subsidized and backstopped by the American people. Any talk of disparity between the "CEO class" and common man is dismissed as socialism ... as the largest multinationals shower themselves in corporate socialism. Handouts to the financial elite are deemed as necessary, and the mirage is supported by banks using their new found money to buy Treasuries so the printing presses can continue on and on.

meanwhile the savers of america get looted.

All in all, it's been a successful crisis and unlike the 1930s the top tranche of society has come out stronger. Therefore it's a win-win-win.

Uhh....


On Nov 06 09:02 PM fwi wrote:

> It sounds crazy, but none of the special treatment (bank holding
> status for a trading firm that has no checking accounts and no deposits),
> access to discount window, full payment on AIG loans, approval (awaiting
> confirmation) to buy(steal for pennies on the dollar) tax credits
> to drastically reduce tax liabilities, uncensored CEO, massive bonus
> pool unremarked. THe list goes on. HOw can this be? What on earth
> is the Federal Govt getting out of this?

At the Bull-Bear Crossroads

I don't think anything will top some of those weeks in Sept/Oct 2008

Or at least until the US dollar currency crisis hits sometime next decade.


On Nov 06 05:58 PM cparth wrote:

> the last few weeks have been the craziest ever, now i try to cash
> out my positions completely at end of day and only day trade when
> serious directional movement is evident. I got burned so fast so
> often , i've never lost as much money during a rally as in the last
> few months

At the Bull-Bear Crossroads

I wrote about the Russell in a separate post today that Seeking Alpha did not post. There is a divergence... I've been talking about it for 3 weeks.


On Nov 06 04:12 PM DDPearson wrote:

> He sums up the S & P pretty good, but he is excluding what has
> already happened in the Russell 2000. The question becomes, is the
> Russell 2000 the canary in the coal mine? He talks about the Standard
> & Poor's 500 breaking below the 50 day moving average, and then
> rebounding back above it. The Russell 2000 broke below its 50 day
> moving average and dropped all the way to the 200 day moving average
> and is now recovered but still hasn't come back up to the 50 day
> moving average. It is difficult to find a bullish pattern in the
> Russell 2000

Blue Coat Systems: More Global Labor Arbitrage

leon its not to win back business ... the business has already been lost and wages have stagnated for a decade

hence we need deflation just so americans (average, not the top 2%) get back to where they were a decade ago

What the "middle" guy in america is now facing is prices far higher than a year ago whereas he has made little progress on wages. Those in blue collar far worse as many have taken new jobs at 30%+ reduction. Many in white collar now learning that situation in past 18 months.

Thats why we need deflation.

A lot of these things are irreversible... the architect in Romania can draw a house plan up for far cheaper than the guy in Orlando. Etc.

Hence we need to adjust but instead we're doing the exact opposite - trying to inflate even further. Thanks for your ocmment.


On Nov 06 01:50 PM leonf675 wrote:

> Generally, I find this article to be very on-the-point, but do you
> really think that deflating the cost of living will allow the US
> workers to compete with people who are used to surviving on $2 a
> day? The difference in the lifestyles cannot be simply addressed
> and explained by the internal cost basis or foreign exchange games
> that the emerging economies engage in. It's going either take a
> major adjustments in terms of the quality of life (from both ends
> and in both directions) or require putting up major trade barriers.
>
>
> You are absolutely right, America has pretty much lost its industrial
> base with the trend originating in the 70's and there isn't much
> we can offer to the Chinese middle class given that they have the
> depth of their own poor, hungry and eager working class to support
> them for as long as needed.
>
> I saw this link in today's posts by Doug Kass (bit.ly/4wZx4d).
>
>
> Could this be a sign of the US government waking up to the reality
> of having to confront China and other emerging economies and a precursor
> of possible trade (or military) muscle flexing? If yes, then what
> would these trade wars mean for de-coupling of the US and Chinese
> economies mean for the dollar and Treasure debt?
>
> Don't get me wrong, - I am against unnatural, anti-competitive things
> like trade barriers, but I just don't see how we are going to be
> able to compete with the rest of the world when it's so flat as you
> describe.
>
> The other alternative is "if you can't beat them, join them" mentality.
>
>
> I think the only hope the US-based working masses have besides hoping
> that the government is going to put up protective barriers is to
> become capitalist owners in the newly emerging world order.
>
> Generally, not to get all Marxist on you, but if we look at the world
> through the prizm of socio-economic classes, then majority of population
> in the developing countries can be viewed as Proletariat with their
> own emergring and strengthening Bourgeoisie while the majority of
> the developed Western world is then be made up of the class of capitalists
> with a very thin layer of service industry workers (since some local
> services cannot be easily outsourced abroad). The way out for
> the displaced and historically overpaid Western workers is to invest
> in the multinationals that moved their jobs oversees and hope their
> ownership interests are adequately protected against riots and takeovers
> by their government and military.

Fuel Systems Rockets Higher: Wish We Had More Exposure

I would love if you are correct

Seems like coal lobby stronger than natural gas lobby and only thing that effects natural policy is who has the better lobby in America.


On Nov 06 09:14 AM DLB40 wrote:

> LPG is only going to get larger. Pay attention to Pickens Plan and
> what's happening in congress with the bill he's pushing. My 3
> largest positions are FSYS, CLNE, and WPRT. Pay close attention to
> Ford and GM. (Not to buy their stock) I read recently somewhere that
> they are slowly starting to offer LNG on a select few of their pickups.
> I think only for fleet or corporate customers. If anyone has more
> info on that in particular. Let's hear from you.

Whitney Tilson: The Housing Market Is Still in Trouble

if you mean Washington DC prices wont go down? thats where all the jobs are being created ... boo yah.


On Nov 06 07:30 AM User 378060 wrote:

> Phoenix, SoCal, Vegas and Florida....sure, but what about the parts
> of the country where most people live BOSNYWash? Illinois? They
> have fallen, but hardly in a punishing manner. Look at the rent
> vs. buy analysis for NYC? It is still ridiculous. I think real
> estate is more regional than ever.

Whitney Tilson: The Housing Market Is Still in Trouble

Homes are far more affordable then they were 3 years ago 0- I agree. I posted in late 07 where I thought national home prices owuld be (the link is in many of my other posts) and we are at the upper band.

However prices are being artificially inflated still... I don't know if its 10% or more... but yes it won't be another 30-40% drop from here so the worst is behind us. However those expecting a return back to the good ole days have not lived through a bubble. NASDAQ stocks still at a fraction of peak... housing prices need a whole new class of suckers.... plus households to fill the nearly 19 million empty homes.

When mortgages get back to 6% on a 30 year and the government stops handing out my money so others can buy homes, let's see where prices are. I still think CA prices make no sense and people rushing in now are like NASDAQ investors in late 2001.


On Nov 06 07:03 AM Marty Boardman wrote:

> From the real estate investor perspective this report is welcome
> news. Only 10% more in declines to go before we reach bottom? Excellent.
> Whether buying one property or a portfolio a simple strategy would
> be to create an additional 10% margin of safety when putting the
> deal together.
>
> Study these charts and graphs until your eyeballs pop out. The bottom
> line is residential real estate is affordable again. For example,
> in many suburban areas of Phoenix the median price for a home is
> under $100,000. A family with a household income of $40,000 can
> easily afford the $775 PITI. Even if interest rates went above 8%
> this home would still be affordable.

Whitney Tilson: The Housing Market Is Still in Trouble

I see you wrote your comment at 5:30 AM
about 3 hours before we saw unemployment rate jump 0.4%
and yes that unemployment rate is a bold faced lie.

And no more people dont need to become unemployed for these things to be come true (although more will) An extended period of joblessness (guaranteed in our economy) followed by any form of market based interest rates or lack of government subsidization$i.e. $8000 or $6500 handouts) will do the trick.

That said, it appears there is no end to government and central bank interference so many of Tilson's projections are simply going to take longer to reach.

Our real unemployment rate is mid teens and "marginally attached" is another 4-6%. We dont need any more job losses for all these outcomes to happen. Try to think where job creation will happen outside of healthcare and federal government. Many people are now structurally unemployed... their jobs are gone, period. They are not in the market for home purchases nor will be for a very long time.


On Nov 06 05:38 AM bbro wrote:

> Read Whitney Tilson's report...he requires two components for his
>
> gloomy forecast to be right continued ( i think substantial )job
> losses and price declines in
> home prices.....a lot of his data is lagging.....no doubt we have
> an inventory problem in housing but as each quarter goes by it is
> making
> it harder for these guys to support their bearish thesis....

Fannie Mae's Deal: Rent Your Home from the Government

lol, love it!


On Nov 06 10:40 AM Tony Petroski wrote:


> In the lesser-known "Oz-II, Dorothy Lingers in the Field of Poppys,"
> the chant was "there's no place like a rental home."

Forget BRIC: Your Portfolio Needs TICK

Clever article

Chile has also been run very fiscally conservative- but very reliant on copper.

America Is Creating Green Energy Jobs...in China

We have a complete disassociation of the public worker v the private worker

I eagerly await the day this comes to a head. Until then keep layering on wage increases, and pensions paid for by the private worker who is trying to tread water. When all else fails just put it on the tab of the grandchild as a form of bailout.

Rinse. Wash. Repeat.


On Nov 04 11:04 AM John Galt wrote:

Transportation workers in Philly are striking for an 11% increase in wages, 11% increase in pensions, and 0 contributions

Showdown at the Federal Reserve Corral

sounds like a typical week for me. lol


On Nov 04 11:18 AM HunterGVL wrote:

> Buy, Buy, Buy....errrrrrghhh
> Sell, Sell, Sell....errrrrghhhh
> Short, Short, Short....errrrghhh
> slowly lift pistol to noggin........ahhhhhhh
> Go Long, Go Long......errrrghhh
> Buy, Sell, Buy, Sell... NOOOOOOOOO!
> Pull the trigger.........ahhhh, sweet mercy

America Is Creating Green Energy Jobs...in China

wait, I thought the government could do nothing right?

Or are the French government workers just better than US? Can't have it both way...

p.s. you are in danger of bein a socialist with the thought that France succeeds in anything. Be careful, the crowd loves to snipe! ;)

I do agree with much of your commentary. Another problem in US will be NIMBY - we cant even put wind turbines in the ocean because it might obstruct the view of the Kennedy family; we haven't build a new refiner in 30+ years, so a nuclear plant? Not in MY BACKYARD - boo yah.


On Nov 04 10:35 AM wind4me wrote:

>
> Being an Ex Nuke Engineer, let me tell U the problems of Nuclear.......France
> has best plants in world an all are socialized govt run and all are
> identical makes and models w/ interchangeable parts........we, in
> the USA, have nothing but American stupidity capitalism at work and
> NONE of our units are alike and all are privately run running the
> costs to the moon.......Nukes in France POWER 70% of France.......they
> run perfectly.......the USA is idiots in nuclear plain and simple
> , yet I agree, WE NEED MORE NUKES to get away from Coal and OIL<br/>
>
> Lets copy the French model and run nukes forever!
>
> On Nov 04 10:17 AM John Galt wrote: