TraderMark

Canpotex Port Expansion Is yet Another Catalyst for Fertilizer

Michael, IPI could surprise simply because the first earnings report (or two) after IPO usually analysts are caught flat footed - that said, its rich in valuation.

As for MOS/POT it is all dependent on if they hold their 50 day moving average - both are right near it and have been basing for a month
MOS $120
POT $185 (POT has been relatively stronger)

I see a gap in MOS back near $110 I've been waiting a while to fill

I do believe when oil reverses the whole kitchen sink will be thrown out and we have possibility to buy these stocks lower. I don't know the exact number because the market overreacts. I would just layer in (and out) - in during panic, out during euphoria. These are very long term stories and we'll have many periods of panic and euphoria to benefit from.

I wouldnt classify CMP with the rest - CMP is mostly salt :)

Chicken Little...er...Morgan Stanley is Worried about Fertilizer

I would like the analysts to reconcile a 1 month pop in inventories with the 5 year trends in "everything"

seekingalpha.com/artic...

and then do a thoughtful write up on how "everything" will be reversing over the next decade - how we are going to push the emerging world's middle class back into the farm fields and tell them, no you cannot have the life you want. Very short sighted stuff I see, and I think these analysts are trained on retail same store sales analysis in business school, and apply that to every sector.

Chicken Little...er...Morgan Stanley is Worried about Fertilizer

sophocles, thanks for the BofA report. Look I am a bear on the economy - have been for a year. Well ahead of the curve. But its not overreaction to everything. A month to month uptick in inventory and suddenly we go to "double ordering is the reason for strength in fertilizer" It is laughable. But humans have a herding instinct just like most animals. It is very apparent in the stock market.

This inventory data reminds me of housing data. People get excited when one month sales shows a slight uptick from last month's sales, not realizing year over year its down 30%. Too much over emphasis on one 30 day period versus the last and a whole "scenario" is built off that. Same with employment reports. Same with inflation reports. Look year over year, it smooths out the rough edges. This is just classic analyst action. Why investors continue to react to these people who downgrade solar stocks after 50% down moves, who downgrade financials after 50% down moves, is beyond me.

I will be laughing when MOS has a $2 handle in 2009.