TraderMark

Allegiant Travel Did Not Fly on Earnings

I like the company a lot. Still have a piece, I just wanted to see if people would continue to punish it. A great grower considering the awful industry. I'll continue to own it. At this point the market is getting euphoric so I am quite sure I will be able to buy lower. The stock acts completely oblivious to the market much of the time (and TA)

Thanks for the update on the call - management has been superb in execution since I started following it last summer. But the stock price has been all over the map.


On Jul 23 08:51 AM Alan Brochstein wrote:

> You sound sad to be letting it go - I hope you are dead wrong, as
> I bought it yesterday. Your comment above - revenue degradation
> was misconstrued, perhaps by you. They clarified on the call that
> revenues rose in June from May, just that they didn't rise as much
> as they would have expected. I like this company - seems totally
> unappreciated, even hated (high short-interest). The CEO takes no
> salary and no one gets a bonus unless they have a 5% profit margin.
> They understand the complex interrelation between fares, capacity
> and costs - they have my vote for now. You are right though - it
> needs to hold this area most likely.

A Chance to Get Back in the Market

I added back EXM this morn - again I think this rally is somewhat fooey but as long as we all believe global trade is roaring in 6 months, and happy times are here again one can continue to have exposure - it is stuck between $6 and $7.50 for now but I sold it out about 3 weeks ago and its about where I sold it so decided I'd get some back.

Something like GNK or Diana is more conservative, and DRYS of course for daytrader special.


On Apr 29 03:50 PM Sober Realist wrote:

> Mark,
> What are your thoughts on the dry bulk shipping companies?

A Chance to Get Back in the Market

Mike owned ATW for large parts of 2007 and 1st half 2008


On Apr 29 03:34 PM mikebrah wrote:

> TraderMark,
>
> Check out ATW if you are into the drillers. Phenomenal balance sheet
> and an easy take-out target for any of the bigger guys whenever M&A
> becomes viable. They own newer rigs, too.
>
> MM

A Chance to Get Back in the Market

Mike OIH has been doing well of late (oil service ETF)

I think its a STRETCH that we have a real recovery soon but if the charts say so, you can play them for a while. I like the deep sea oil drillers - like a DO for example. They have fared best and have long term contracts. Compare DO versus say SII or NOV recent earnings report

The market treats them all the same but if I go into a sector I prefer the best fundamental story so if you go there, I think the select group of deep sea rigs have the best safety factor. But right now its a market where you throw a dart into a sector and monolithic moves take the whole thing up.

I will say this, if $50 oil is where we are at with THIS sort of global recession just imagine where we will be at when things recover. I love the space LONG run.... (commodities) - next 4-8 weeks I will have to watch the price action. Copper begun to roll over - so let's see how much is real and how much is just Chinese buying in commodities.


On Apr 29 02:41 PM Michael Letizia wrote:

> First time reading your comments. Been building positions in an oil
> service stock (nov) for a while now. Their numbers are strong and
> the stock is selling at a discount to it's intrinsic value. I feel
> stong about a pick up in damand for oil when we get back to a normal
> economy. What's your take?

A Chance to Get Back in the Market

Thanks bud - I cannot believe you think I am optimistic :) everyone accuses me of being a perma bear. I guess its from where you sit where you think someone else is.

As for bereal I am glad he loves pedigree. Unless you lived under a rock you will notice bankers have been asking for public handouts and brokers have cost many of their clients 30,40,50% the past year.

Yes, I do not strike to be like either of them.


On Apr 29 12:57 PM Hot Richard wrote:

> "up well over 20% today as they stated nothing much more than we
> plan to stay in business."
>
> HA! Says a lot about the market we're in! This is why I follow
> Trader Mark. He writes with style. I don't hold it against him
> that he's way more optimistic than I am.
>
> @bereal,
> Stop looking at pedigrees, good man! It ain't a shortcut you can
> trust.