TraderMark

China's Solar Industry Outshines the U.S.

John you should be a writer; you have a very eloquent style. I am more soup and potatoes but I've written the exact same thing in basic form in many of my posts.

Dogma rules Americans. There was a vacuum post World World 2 where essentially we had the world to ourselves and we have mistaken than for some enlightened halo shining over the country - we are the chosen ones. That has turned many of us lazy in my opinion. Our competition is hungry. And they are coming at us hard and fast...

The scary thing is the competition has a lot of flaws too and if they ever clean those things up they will become even more of a menace.


On Nov 20 09:55 AM John Cordes wrote:

> Very nice article. Central planning has it's benefits. However America's
> delusional hubris is truly getting in the way. "We have the best
> health care available in the world", "we are the most innovative
> country in the world", "reduce taxes and regulations and let business
> do what it does best". All self serving sentiments which by overuse
> become anachronistic continue to delude the public into believing
> in fairy tales. Sentiments which actually have morphed into a self
> serving propaganda ghost written by a lobbying firm paid to maintain
> the status quo and legislated advantages.
>
> Like the car companies which preserved existing cafe standards to
> avoid real innovation costs through lobbying for the status quo to
> remain intact, the health insurance industry which fights harder
> for tort reform than ways to expand comprehensive covered health
> care, like pharmaceutical firms which fight harder to extend existing
> patents ad infinitum, as a means to preserve profits than on actual
> research, American firms have come to rely on the triumvirate of
> what passes for corporate innovation; lobbying, advertising and acquisition.
> It is not surprising then that the so called American financial innovation
> is to find ways to increase leverage beyond sanity by selling CDO's
> instead of financing it's country's own 21st century manufacturing.
>
> Yes those pesky Chinese have all that foreign reserve and central
> planning, while all we have is greed and politicians, and what passes
> for innovation is off-shoring jobs and devising new tax loop holes,
> aided and abetted by the political class.
>
> Sorry for the rant. Nice article though.

China's Solar Industry Outshines the U.S.

Look this central planning stuff has pros and cons. If the "managers" of said economy are thinking in the national interest it can be somewhat successful. The Chinese are thinking 20-50 years out. If you do it the Soviet way its a disaster.

The difference in stimulus plans is another example. Both China's and the US would be argued are "central planning" but one created a ton of jobs, and long life projects - even if you disagree with those projects. The other went to bail out US states through the backdoor, "create or save" countless jobs (yeh right) and saved a butterfly farm.

So this is the reality we are facing... a global competitor who (brutally if they need to) can shift their industry base to do this or that. They might catch up to Germany and Japan in green energy in a 3 year time frame, after having a 10+ year gap. In the US we will still be arguing about "drill baby drill" 2 election cycles for now.

Other examples of "central planning" is France moving to a nuclear grid... Brazil moving off dependence on oil after 70s shock.... etc

Everyone in US thinks all government is evil because our government is basically here to serve the small elite at the top. Government is inefficient in every country, and prone to massive corruption. But in other countries the citizens demand the government works for them. Our oligarchy government does nothing for the people anymore...they just push moral issues out there and let the people fight with each other while they laugh, put in their cushy time in congress before leaving to become a millionare lobbyist....

These are all things eroding our competitive base and our "competition" while maybe just as corrupt in government at least accomplishes something in their governments as an offshoot. Our government does nothing.


On Nov 20 09:16 AM vpratt51 wrote:

> "Oh, Brave new world"
>
> You know, I really hate being envious of the way the Chinese can
> quickly set a course and steer the whole nation in the direction
> chosen. Are they communists, or pragmatists? I LIKE the way we
> sort of stumble along, eventually finding the right path. But in
> the solar (and many other areas) we have definitely come up short.
> We're like a guy standing at a urinal, sneaking a peek and finding
> ourselves lacking. It was supposed to be OUR technology that saves
> the world. Sure, we invented solar cells and much of what goes with
> it but, to continue with the urinal image (sorry) it's not what you
> have, but how you use it.
>
> Mark, I think YOU are doing the right thing by asking the hard questions.
> I wonder how many inconvenient truths there are. Keep up the good
> work.

America Is Creating Green Energy Jobs...in China

We have a complete disassociation of the public worker v the private worker

I eagerly await the day this comes to a head. Until then keep layering on wage increases, and pensions paid for by the private worker who is trying to tread water. When all else fails just put it on the tab of the grandchild as a form of bailout.

Rinse. Wash. Repeat.


On Nov 04 11:04 AM John Galt wrote:

Transportation workers in Philly are striking for an 11% increase in wages, 11% increase in pensions, and 0 contributions

America Is Creating Green Energy Jobs...in China

wait, I thought the government could do nothing right?

Or are the French government workers just better than US? Can't have it both way...

p.s. you are in danger of bein a socialist with the thought that France succeeds in anything. Be careful, the crowd loves to snipe! ;)

I do agree with much of your commentary. Another problem in US will be NIMBY - we cant even put wind turbines in the ocean because it might obstruct the view of the Kennedy family; we haven't build a new refiner in 30+ years, so a nuclear plant? Not in MY BACKYARD - boo yah.


On Nov 04 10:35 AM wind4me wrote:

>
> Being an Ex Nuke Engineer, let me tell U the problems of Nuclear.......France
> has best plants in world an all are socialized govt run and all are
> identical makes and models w/ interchangeable parts........we, in
> the USA, have nothing but American stupidity capitalism at work and
> NONE of our units are alike and all are privately run running the
> costs to the moon.......Nukes in France POWER 70% of France.......they
> run perfectly.......the USA is idiots in nuclear plain and simple
> , yet I agree, WE NEED MORE NUKES to get away from Coal and OIL<br/>
>
> Lets copy the French model and run nukes forever!
>
> On Nov 04 10:17 AM John Galt wrote:

America Is Creating Green Energy Jobs...in China

I expect the next "stimulus" plan (but don't call it that) to be heavy on retrofitting for energy efficiency. Surely will be announced first few months of 2010 ... we need a new stimulus every 12 months to keep this "dynamic" economy going.


On Nov 04 10:08 AM jerrydd wrote:

>
> Here is how to do this better. We can have a stimulus that costs
> almost nothing to the taxpayer, in fact paid a lot by Iran, Russia,
> oil dictators!!
>
> How is start up loans for RE companies and energy eff ones. Let most
> anyone with a good business plan through the SBA get start up loans
> to build or install windgenerators, solar CSP unit, CHP, small lightweight,
> aero 3 wheel EV's, etc. Then loans to buy, install, etc these.<br/>
>
> Loans for home, building eff upgrades from windows, insulation, etc
> are next. This would put construction, material workers back to work.
>
>
> All these can be paid for in energy savings in 5 yrs so no new income
> costs either. This will create about 3 million jobs directly and
> probably 6 million indirectly of people supporting them.
>
> Next is a fossil fuel tax to pay their full cost of the direct, indirect
> subsidies we already pay in our income tax, health care, etc. it's
> time those who make, benefit from those costs to pay them It should
> be a $1.50/gal on oil and about double the price of coal.
>
> But you say a tax will kill the economy. Not if it's put in over
> 2 yrs at 4% each month and loans given to buy more eff cars, etc
> to cut people's costs. Switching trucks, semi's to NG is very cost
> effective now being under 50% of the cost of diesel/gasoline. This
> can in 5 yrs cut imported oil needs.
>
> The beauty of this is oil, coal will drop in price making Iran, Russia,
> oil dictators pay most of the oil tax, coal is only 25% of your electric
> bill so it won't go up much.
>
> But new, more eff cars, trucks, EV's, PHEV's and mass transit will
> create more new jobs too.
>
> The fossil fuel tax revenue, 1/3 would go to a tax cut so those people
> paying it have the extra money needed if they continue to use the
> same amount or better, use less and have extra income, the more likely
> outcome. 1/3 to to help switching to more eff cars, trucks, homes,
> buildings and 1/3 to balance the budget fossil fuels have been a
> large part in making.
>
> So this program would have a net increase of about 8-10 million jobs
> of both direct and supporting those who have the new jobs, solve
> our imported oil problem, let us leave the Persian gulf between the
> 2 are about $1T/yr in a few yrs if we don't, stop subsidizing our
> enemies, oil/coal corporations and balance the budget.. All at little
> cost to the gov, in fact get rid of our debt on our children and
> make our country strong again.
>
> Or we will be broke, at war, our enemies strong and we will be weak.
> To me it's the only real patriotic way to go.

More Gaps to Fill

No change. Those gaps take time, all I am saying is over time the gap will fill. Not "in 2 weeks it will fill"

APWR is dominated by daytraders. When the next swoon in the mkt happens daytraders have no interest is sitting around providing any floor in the stock. It will be abandoned and thats most likely when the stock fills that gap.

Today it got news, and the daytraders on a quiet day swarmed in since not too many names are up big. They will be gone soon. Rinse. Wash. Repeat.

WHEN APWR management can prove to be consistent and stick to their guidance maybe some institutional money of size and scale will come in and make this situation different.


On Jul 10 02:43 PM connorport wrote:

> How does the 17% run up on APWR affect your projections? will the
> gap fill or is this one destined to move higher and stay?

More Gaps to Fill

What would be a crash to you? If we fall to SP 750 thats not a crash to me. S&P 500? Crash.

Trust me I'm ambivalent on stock direction; I try to make money both ways.

Most of my comments are about the real economy - if I could short the real economy that would be a different story. The Wall Street economy lives in parallel universes for long periods of time.


On Jul 09 03:39 PM Kelvin Schulle wrote:

> TM,
> what you saying basically market will crash again like in March.
> bears camp like to see that. otherwise stock will go higher from
> here. maybe 5% dip before next leg up. but if you watch these stocks
> and wait for march low again, you will miss the boat forever. dollar
> average, that is what you need to do. I believe you are pure momentum
> player i f I am not wrong.

More Gaps to Fill

I have all these stocks on my watch list and have owned (or do own) some, so I look at their charts pretty often.

More Gaps to Fill

wow, did you do a white paper to get to 70%?

I wrote "IN MY EXPERIENCE" - I am glad that explicit wording was able to lead you to believe I am disingenuous. Almost always in stocks I watch that gap gets filled, even if it takes a years - as I wrote also explicitly.

If you have a white paper or research study showing that with 70 years of research, 70% of gaps get filled, I'd be happy to begin using that as a future reference.


On Jul 07 11:54 AM tresspass wrote:

> your statistically in error.
>
> gaps are filled 70% of the time and they are mostly partial fills.
>
>
> you're article is disingenuous to the max.
>
> you lack a fundamental component to your POV at your reader's peril.
>
>
> a true disservice.
>
> trespass

More Gaps to Fill

They all look juicy

Mike, we are going with yellow weeds, rather than red shoots. Join the verbal movement.


On Jul 07 10:59 AM mikesa69 wrote:

> That RIMM setup sure looks juicy! Red shoots anyone?

A Look at the Charts: Mind the Gaps

Don't disagree with you - I have the highest cash level I can remember - I see a lot of charts making he right side of head and shoulders...

How I'm Playing the Chinese Rate Cut Rally

Aalan,

If it makes you feel better my TSL losses are my worst in about a decade of investing :)
And I mean that in my personal account

I've had to do a ton of work to even begin to offset that dog.

I sold over $14 on the Obama election rally - pathetically it dropped 50% more from there... but as long as we have capital we can make up losses. I just was flabbergasted to see those ever go down so much

As for APWR its unfortunately been turned into a solar stock - if you watch the trading when solar stocks do well, so does APWR. Its nonsensical for a company that has yet to book 1 dollar of revenue from their wind business to be trading as an alternative energy stock but that is all US investors see it is; I guess the whole DG business (which is 100% of its business through this last Q) is a moot point.

When the market gets animal spirits going for a few weeks in a row, APWR can rally more broadly - until then it is like everything else - a trading vehicle. Valuation means zilch in this market. Evan a miserly 10 PE ratio would generate a year end target in low teens. Quite sad really.