TraderMark

Feels Like February in Reverse: Time to Add to Short Positions

Not that the china small cap run was "unworthy" but some names are just speculative junk and in latter part of moves you see those stocks move. I don't know enough about CPSL either way to make a comment on it.


On May 07 06:35 PM Wisdom vs. Information wrote:

> you commented on CPSL a few days ago, and after i looked at it i
> could not figure out why its run was worthy of comment (good growth,
> and great PE before the run). were you saying it is unworthy of its
> new price, or simply that the entire china sm cap run was too high?

Feels Like February in Reverse: Time to Add to Short Positions

SLV looks good here, not only do you get the precious metal thought but you can get some benefit from the (correct or incorrect) thought that the world will come roaring back "in 4-6 months"


On May 07 03:43 PM Dr. O wrote:

> Agree; now that the bulls have exhausted themselves for the time
> being, the markets (not just US but most equity markets world wide)
> look ripe for a pull back. At what point would you cover?
>
> I made a couple of comments on a previous article of yours from a
> bullish perspective which were poorly received, lol, but I should
> have pointed out that I am bullish on foreign, not domestic equities:
> BRIC, Australia, Canada, and commodities.
>
> I don't own a share of a US stock, or index ETF, or bond, or mutual
> fund. In fact, I'm becoming uncomfortable holding cash in US Dollars.
> If the Dollar starts to fall off a cliff, again, I'll diversity my
> non-retirement dollars into FXA, FXC, and FXY, as well as SLV and
> GLD. FWIW.
>

Feels Like February in Reverse: Time to Add to Short Positions

Nothing egregious - I am looking for 870 to 890 for now but we'll see - the employment report will move the market strongly

Then I am looking for a wider range of 820 to 950 for a while

then later in the year a retest of 750 and I think that retest should be bought

we'll see if that roadmap is correct and even if it is dead on, timing it will be impossible

but thats my 40,000 point of view

I believe S&P earnings for 09 will be under 50, but analysts still cling go 60
even at 60, with a 15 multiple you are at 900

I find it hard to argue that in the worst recession since depression you can hang something higher than a FORWARD 15 multiple on this mess. But bulls will try

I expect range bound and wide range - today was a good day but things can reverse

as always I run a hedged portfolio; I just weighted it to short yesterday for a while

in this market can change in 72 hours


On May 07 03:43 PM Dr. O wrote:

> Agree; now that the bulls have exhausted themselves for the time
> being, the markets (not just US but most equity markets world wide)
> look ripe for a pull back. At what point would you cover?
>
> I made a couple of comments on a previous article of yours from a
> bullish perspective which were poorly received, lol, but I should
> have pointed out that I am bullish on foreign, not domestic equities:
> BRIC, Australia, Canada, and commodities.
>
> I don't own a share of a US stock, or index ETF, or bond, or mutual
> fund. In fact, I'm becoming uncomfortable holding cash in US Dollars.
> If the Dollar starts to fall off a cliff, again, I'll diversity my
> non-retirement dollars into FXA, FXC, and FXY, as well as SLV and
> GLD. FWIW.
>

Feels Like February in Reverse: Time to Add to Short Positions

SWHC was down due to a lousy dilutive offering


On May 07 03:15 PM Sober Realist wrote:

> SWHC down big today. Beat your swords into ploughshares and grow
> a victory garden.

Feels Like February in Reverse: Time to Add to Short Positions

ASTI DSTI are my tells ... I've been in solar space since 2006, when ASTI DSTI start running usually we sell off within 3 days


On May 07 10:53 AM enigmadude wrote:

> You sound like an angry bear with no rational reason given for shorting
> any of the stocks mentioned. I agree that there will be some downward
> movement in the market at some point, probably soon. But why pick
> on ASTI and DSTI? Did you lose some $$ on them in the past?

Greentech Media: Solar Sector Headed for a Shakeout

revolution - I have not heard of the company you mentioned

rkreske - I've been a bit surprised by the weakness in LDK. I do consider them an arms merchant so as more panel makers come online I thought they would benefit; but perhaps the accounting 'scandal' has cast a long pall over the name. Earnings tonight were fine - but 26-31% gross margin for 08 is such a wide net, it is hard to accurately forecast where exactly their 08 eps will be

everyone else - I consider solar to be very similar to what happened to fiber optic buildout. That is while I believe in the long term, in any shorter term time frame (1-3 years) too much supply can be built vs demand. So while demand in the very long term can be tremendous that doesnt mean there wont be times of oversupply (potential massive oversupply) in nearer term; which will lead to competition. One could argue thats silly but I heard the same arguements in late 90s about the buildout of fiber ... we will need it all because the internet is just beginning. Well people were right; we did need it all but its a matter of timing. It was not all needed in 2000, 2001, 2002 so many companies went out of business after overbuilding. I expect the same in this sector. (keep in mind there are many many private companies, not just the public ones we see each day)