TraderMark

Why I'm Not Buying Allegheny Technologies, Titanium Metals, or RTI International Metals, Just Yet

Hi Vicent, I saw that news this morning, congrats, its technically back above the 50 day moving average. If it can hold that level it will bode well. I'm glad to see it get its recognition. Hopefully it will decouple from ATI whose miss was stainless not titanium

Why I'm Not Buying Allegheny Technologies, Titanium Metals, or RTI International Metals, Just Yet

Actually I agree with you in theory. The problem is you use logic and as you have seen I am sure, the market doesn't use logic in the near term very often. See the rise of no name Chinese stocks rising 300% in a week, or big cap tech stocks going up daily for 7 weeks straight.

I just put a new article out on TIE/ATI/RTP. I think the Boeing news will affect psychology and not business. So for the long and medium run, nothing changes. In the short run, you have psychology which does change so ... as you say (and I wrote)... you can find opportunities if the stocks pull back from this sort of news. THese are all long term contracts with no changes to them - hence an opportunity. But I will see how the market treats them near term and let the charts dictate the short term movement.

Why I'm Not Buying Allegheny Technologies, Titanium Metals, or RTI International Metals, Just Yet

Great post Vincent - where did you pull the end market sales by % data?
That post was more of a technical short term call - waiting for a catalyst. Since that post I have initiated a position in TIE (once the chart looked positive technically) and added back to my ATI position as well. Still want to see some more earnings stability out of RTI before jumping on board there so TIE/ATI for now.

See here:
www.fundmymutualfund.c...

I think all 3 are in the right place/right time - ATI exposure to chemical process/oil & gas is another market I am playing in numerous ways and am long term for the very long run. I appreciate you writing all that out!

Why I'm Not Buying Allegheny Technologies, Titanium Metals, or RTI International Metals, Just Yet

Vincent, I did read that as well. Sometimes investor psychology gets in the way of logic. That is what makes the market tough sometimes. When I read that data, I see no reason for the weakness especially in TIE or ATI, yet the stocks remain weak. Hence you have to respect what the 'market' is telling us, until the 'market' changes its mind. Again, my call is a near term, and I am bullish on the sector, just not the stocks at these levels and with these weak charts. I try to stay focused on very good sectors with long term strength, of which I'd consider these speciality metal makers to be one, but until the price action improves the stock appreciation is limited. This will change at some point in the future, at which point I plan to add a good lot of shares. Thanks for your comments.

Why I'm Not Buying Allegheny Technologies, Titanium Metals, or RTI International Metals, Just Yet

echotoall - my thoughts exactly on the 32 or so area. TIE's CEO has long history of insider purchases - always good, but until chart takes a turn for the better we are limited to the upside. Right now a break of the 200 day (32.50) is in order to get constructive for a longer term trade. Until then, range bound and 'dead money'; one could buy now and hold for a while but when a change in stock direction happens is unknowable. In the meantime you can do more things with your money if you have a shorter time frame; time value of money sitting in dead stocks is not something I enjoy. That said, for trading purposes in that narrow range the past 6 weeks, 28-32 its been a nice area to play.

Why I'm Not Buying Allegheny Technologies, Titanium Metals, or RTI International Metals, Just Yet

Hi Jessica, I agree that ATI is less of a pure play on titanium than the other 2, with a broader portfolio. However of the 3, I like it best due to its direct tie to Dreamliner. An investors *have* latched on to it for the titanium portion hype in 06. It also was the last to fall of the 3 in terms of stock price on this recent drag - first came RTI, than TIE, than finally ATI succumbed to the general weakness in this 'area'.