TraderMark

Why I'm Adding to Excel Maritime, Atwood Oceanic and James River Coal

Crank

EXM is hostage to oil. as oil goes up the dry bulk shippers are going up on 'reflation trade'. No idea in a year.

Tony,
I like MOST th ebst for long term fundamentals but i was speaking of technicals here. MOS had the most at risk chart and this morning ag was red while much of the rest of the commodity group was green. Just making point - doesnt mean you cannot trade it.

Ramilse,
I tried to make clear the distinction between believing in something and trading it because thats what the crowd believes i.e. smoke and mirror.

EXM can be traded for GNK or TBSI or any of a number of other dry bulk shippers. They generally move in a group in this market were individual stock selection means little and sector allocation means everything. I think a lot of people are changing that character change in the market the past 2-3 years. ETFs and computer driven orders have changed the game. Sectors mean everything, individual stocks mean little IMO.


On Jun 05 06:01 AM Crankly09 wrote:

> I like, own and have just added my position to EXM as well. Where
> do you see the pps a year from now?

Percentage of Stocks Below 200 Day Moving Average Now at Historical Oversold Levels

I still like DO, RIG, and ATW. Only issue is everytime the market panics it dumps these thinking crude is going back to $50. But I like the deep sea names and find them to be a good valuation. The market treats them with a cyclical multiple instead of a more secular one. If that ever changes they'd truly move.

12 Stocks to Buy on a Pullback

And the title of the post is? :)

12 Stocks to Buy on a Pullback

ISRG = good stock, valuation that makes me dizzy

12 Stocks to Buy on a Pullback

As for coal, I think its turning from a North American commodity to global commodity. Coal and natural gas had not followed crude because they are traditionally more local commodities - so ebb and flow with US economy. Now as China sucks in more of the world's coal (and that will hold true if China GDP is 2% or 12%), with the high cost of shipping, and low dollar, the Europeans are really liking our coal off the east coast. Thats my thesis and until the price action dictates differently I am sticking with it. :)

12 Stocks to Buy on a Pullback

John, I write about the latter point of your comment almost daily :)
There is a huge bias to big boys and I love things like huge amount of calls being bought right before a stock gets bought out and the SEC never looks at this. SeekingAlpha has some of my comments on these shenanighans. The "invisible hand" is hard at work propping up the market - apparently they only care about equity markets because bond markets are signaling a lot of bad things that you'd never see if you looked at an equity market that as of early last week was 4% away from all time highs. Anyhow, I do write about these topics quite often.

Good call oN TSO - I like FTO more as a refiner, but TSO was more of a Kerkorian play that did not work out. No one is perfect, nor close to it - the key is to let your winners run, and cut your mistakes quickly. I am out of TSO as of yesterday in fact when it spiked to near $50 (sold the other half $55 the day before Kerkorian pulled the plug on the 20% tender). My whole thesis there was oil prices would fall (which they did) from $100 and refiners would benefit from crack spreads widening... so the latter part of the thesis did not work out. It happens. :)

12 Stocks to Buy on a Pullback

Lisa, here is a post I did about MA

www.fundmymutualfund.c...

They essentially are a play on the move away from a cash society to a plastic society, with huge growth avenues overseas. The banks they represent actually carry the credit risk, not MA itself.