TraderMark

Getting out of BHP Billiton Before the Dollar Rallies

Got back the BHP I sold earlier this week in the $72s here in the $68s, not bad for 48 hours work

Will look to buy more if it drops from here - just wanted to lock in profit in case the dollar rallied, which it has.

Getting out of BHP Billiton Before the Dollar Rallies

Wilde

If you are multi year - stay long.

Each of us invest over a different time frame. BHP, Vale - they are in sweet spots for a long time... global oligarchs of base metals!

I am just talking some short term swings, each article discussing a stock has differnet time frames. I've had VALE or BHP as part of my portfolio for almost the entire past 3 years... heck when I was in VALE at first it was called CVRD. ;)

Doesnt mean I dont trade around it a lot though... I am hoping for at least 1 more day of dollar strength, a push down tomorrow and I can get some back. If its part of a much larger correction I'll head back to the sideline... if there is no correction at all after today, then I missed out and will wait for the next opportunity. That's a trader... the investor can just buy and check back in 5 years.

That works most of the time, except say in 2008 ;)


On Oct 27 06:25 PM Wildebeest wrote:

> Are we discussing where the BHP price is headed in the next few months
> or where its earnings are headed? Price is disconnected from earnings
> in the current market bubble.
>
> For BHP most of its costs are denominated in Australian dollars.
> Its margins actually increase with a stronger dollar -- notwithstanding
> the base metal price weakness that will accompany a weaker dollar.
> Most of its iron ore is sold under annual contract (ditto Vale and
> Rio) so the price it gets is not subject to the whims of speculators.
>
>
> I think you could be right about a correction, and certainly the
> market is overbought, but I'm multi-year long BHP and don't have
> the inclination to try and pick a market reversal, especially one
> that doesn't have much effect on earnings. A crash on the other hand
> ...

Analyst: BHP-Potash Deal Unlikely

That won't stop people from bringing up each time a hedge fund buys a whole slew of calls of Potash and then dumps it on the public once Najarian sends out an alert about "hot call activity on Potash"
;)

Getting out of BHP Billiton Before the Dollar Rallies

every human on Earth is short the dollar

I don't assume anything; well I guess I assume the dollar will not go down 1000 consecutive days

I'm a long term bear but eventually oversold rallies happen. Will it be now? Who knows - it might be now or in 2 weeks, 2 months or 8 months. What we can see is once this trade reverses it will get ugly. Yesterday was an example of just how crowded it is... a "rush down" the minute that dollar showed even one ounce of life.

Heck, a 72 hour rally would be nice at this point for the US peso.


On Oct 27 09:33 AM john s. gordon wrote:

> you're assuming the USD will rise in value.
> what will be the driver for the rise? defeat of health care reform?
> rush limboss says he wants defeat/failure.

Taking Some Profits: Where Is This Country Going?

as explained above BHP is either forming a double top or about to start a new leg. It retreated today but any close over $70 would be quite bullish.

RTP looks identical. Remember to the quant computers they are all the same stock ;)


On Oct 09 03:04 PM Paul Harper wrote:

> Mark ... just been looking at commodities; miners in particular.
> Any thoughts on BHP that you would care to share here ? RTP is looking
> ripe to hit it's 50 day EMA (imo)

Taking Some Profits: Where Is This Country Going?

I don't have trailing stops as an option in the system that holds my model portfolio

I'd literally have to place stop orders and change them by the hour or day. Don't have time.

AGQ was up 25% in 4 sessions, good enough for me to snap off some profits - I am like a squirrel, I like to store my acorns as they fall for winter. Rather than simply wait for all the acorns to fall and then try to rush them all back my nesting spot at once.


On Oct 09 08:52 AM doubleguns wrote:

> TM why are you selling. Could you just put in trailing stops and
> run for a while.
>
> DGP and AGQ are two of my favorites. I am running with stops.

Taking Some Profits: Where Is This Country Going?

p.s. with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan reporting next week I find it hard to believe the market will falter - I am assuming a gap up even Wed or Thursday morning on either both of their reports and off to the races.

Taking Some Profits: Where Is This Country Going?

I have a website

3 buys were posted Friday, BHP and BX among them

www.fundmymutualfund.c...

Seeking Alpha just grabs a portion of the sites posts and puts them here, so you're getting just a snapshot of postings here.


On Oct 09 10:40 AM watchingellie wrote:

> Great point of view, by the way where did you tell everyone about
> your buys last week that you are now taking profits on. Do you have
> a subscription service?
> Thanks

BHP Billiton: Cash-Rich and On the Prowl

I've been boggled by non performance of PCU in light of FCX


On Sep 22 09:36 AM Gravity404 wrote:

> What about PCU? Much Like FCX about $26 billion. In Peru, Mexico
> and Chile.

Rio Tinto's 33% Iron Ore Price Cut Is not Egregious

all of the big 3 are excellent diverse names, VALE of the 3 has the biggest exposure from iron but don't quote me on that. These are massive entities so they are not the types of names one would worry about going 'under water' - that would be an issue for much smaller players.


On May 27 02:20 PM bbowen7 wrote:

> Thank you for the recap and insights. With the increases that have
> occured in the past few years, it would seem as if even a 50% reduction
> would not put the top quality / efficiency producers below water.
> My understanding is that is Vale, but I would appreicate confirmation.