TraderMark

Time to Begin a Long-Term Stake in Market Vectors Brazil Small Cap

right now the entire world is 1 big trade

US dollar down = everything up
US dollar up = everything down

the correlations are pathetic

so when NYSE is down Brazil will go down

the difference is degree, your foreign markets are giong to be much more volatile. You will make more when they run and (generally) lose more when they fall.

To wit, I think the Dow is like up 11% for the year (could be wrong, somewhere within a few % of that) and Brazil before today was somewhere in the 60% range

Last year Dow was down 30%+
Brazil I think 50-60%.

So you get the picture...these are high beta plays, but over a 10 year horizon I want to go with demographics, growth and believe it or not much more responsible government. Which would be laughable if you know the Brazilian story over the last 30 years. :)

But whatever the case right now everything has become 1 huge computer trade against the dollar. So if the dollar keeps running expect Brazil to take a big hit. Which for longer term views will be a great thing.

On Oct 30 01:49 PM jambo wrote:

> As an owner of BRF and EWZ, I agree despite the thrashing they are
> both taking as we write this.
> BUT, and I direct this to the author or anyone else willing, can
> you explain to me why my investment in funds totally dedicated to
> that market and economy are no more than straw in the winds of the
> NYSE? Are these ETFs not built of actual equities in that market??
> Must I buy similar funds/ equities from the Brazilian market and
> in the real to avoid this phenomenon? Because I am on the verge
> of attempting exactly that in search of stability.
> At times it seems as though there are a number of hidden factors
> stacked against me, that I am not getting a level playing field in
> these funds. I mean, if the dollar suffers would those equities
> not be worth more of them? And this 2% trade tax both in AND out
> is some real bs, word association intended.
> Finally ENIGMAMAN; "Based on a economic world view it does appear
> that the long term sustainable growth needed to rebuild ones wealth
> will come from the BRIC and some of the newly discussed emerging
> markets..."
> I dont challenge that presumption but do you have a moment to give
> us a couple of details in support?

Time to Begin a Long-Term Stake in Market Vectors Brazil Small Cap

I would love for you to be right, I would like to build a large position much lower. Again just a starter stake here so it stays on my radar

Indonesia is the other I want.


On Oct 30 09:06 AM enigmaman wrote:

> Based on a economic world view it does appear that the long term
> sustainable growth needed to rebuild ones wealth will come from the
> BRIC and some of the newly discussed emerging markets. However this
> is no secret as witnessed by the dramatic run up of their securities,
> any market correction should result in these all getting a nice hair
> cut, so I will just bide my time and if Im wrong about a correction
> I will buy at higher prices but in a confirmed bull market.