TraderMark

CSX and Peabody: Don't Let the Facts Trample Green Shoots

bass - I love BTU for a 3-5 year hold.

Hence its one of my yardsticks.

Why I Am Cutting Back on Commodities

Guys, ag remains my #1 theme. It was 6 months ago. It will be 2 years from now. But as we saw last week "liquidations" by hedge funds can cause the stocks to drop 20% in the blink of an eye. When I posted this (SA posts with some delay) we were at a point where liquidations could continue to happen (for all we know) and the stocks/commodities could continue to falter, or it could reverse. No one knew (except Georealist)

My cutting back is simply 5-10% here or there. Mosaic has been my top position 90% of the time (when Ultrashort Financial has not been) the past 4-5 months.

It is not an abandonment of the thesis; simply a statement that the thesis was being ignored last week. Nothing changed fundamentally last week either but the price levels dropped off the cliff. Nothing changed in early to mid January fundamentally but the prices fell close to 40%. Etc. Simply a statement on the market's bipolar nature not a change on the long term fundamentals. I'm the first defender of the ag trade every time I hear it's over - you can see me posting about the coming potential famine conditions we are creating for the world's poor (and middle class in poorer countries) every week.

I was in there buying in the selloff last week, I just lightened up some early this week on the first bounce in case more "hedge fund liquidations" ensued. So far they have not... it would be a nice market when hedge fund liquidatations and Fed actions meant less, and fundies meant more... thats my main commentary here.

Thanks for your comments, all.

12 Stocks to Buy on a Pullback

And the title of the post is? :)

12 Stocks to Buy on a Pullback

ISRG = good stock, valuation that makes me dizzy

12 Stocks to Buy on a Pullback

As for coal, I think its turning from a North American commodity to global commodity. Coal and natural gas had not followed crude because they are traditionally more local commodities - so ebb and flow with US economy. Now as China sucks in more of the world's coal (and that will hold true if China GDP is 2% or 12%), with the high cost of shipping, and low dollar, the Europeans are really liking our coal off the east coast. Thats my thesis and until the price action dictates differently I am sticking with it. :)

12 Stocks to Buy on a Pullback

John, I write about the latter point of your comment almost daily :)
There is a huge bias to big boys and I love things like huge amount of calls being bought right before a stock gets bought out and the SEC never looks at this. SeekingAlpha has some of my comments on these shenanighans. The "invisible hand" is hard at work propping up the market - apparently they only care about equity markets because bond markets are signaling a lot of bad things that you'd never see if you looked at an equity market that as of early last week was 4% away from all time highs. Anyhow, I do write about these topics quite often.

Good call oN TSO - I like FTO more as a refiner, but TSO was more of a Kerkorian play that did not work out. No one is perfect, nor close to it - the key is to let your winners run, and cut your mistakes quickly. I am out of TSO as of yesterday in fact when it spiked to near $50 (sold the other half $55 the day before Kerkorian pulled the plug on the 20% tender). My whole thesis there was oil prices would fall (which they did) from $100 and refiners would benefit from crack spreads widening... so the latter part of the thesis did not work out. It happens. :)

12 Stocks to Buy on a Pullback

Lisa, here is a post I did about MA

www.fundmymutualfund.c...

They essentially are a play on the move away from a cash society to a plastic society, with huge growth avenues overseas. The banks they represent actually carry the credit risk, not MA itself.

Coal Stocks are Burning; Consol and Peabody Thrive on Exports

Ladygee I would akin penny stock investing to gambling. Been there (a LONG time ago) - might do well, might not but similar odds to a casino. I try to always get better odds - with chinese stocks going up 200% a quarter you might as well move up to regular stocks - the same profit potential is in the more risky names (not that I advocate buying overvalued bloated stocks that have been run up to nonsense levels) but my point is you can get some insane returns on normal markets with stocks trading over $5.