TraderMark

A Chance to Get Back in the Market

I added back EXM this morn - again I think this rally is somewhat fooey but as long as we all believe global trade is roaring in 6 months, and happy times are here again one can continue to have exposure - it is stuck between $6 and $7.50 for now but I sold it out about 3 weeks ago and its about where I sold it so decided I'd get some back.

Something like GNK or Diana is more conservative, and DRYS of course for daytrader special.


On Apr 29 03:50 PM Sober Realist wrote:

> Mark,
> What are your thoughts on the dry bulk shipping companies?

A Chance to Get Back in the Market

Mike owned ATW for large parts of 2007 and 1st half 2008


On Apr 29 03:34 PM mikebrah wrote:

> TraderMark,
>
> Check out ATW if you are into the drillers. Phenomenal balance sheet
> and an easy take-out target for any of the bigger guys whenever M&A
> becomes viable. They own newer rigs, too.
>
> MM

A Chance to Get Back in the Market

Mike OIH has been doing well of late (oil service ETF)

I think its a STRETCH that we have a real recovery soon but if the charts say so, you can play them for a while. I like the deep sea oil drillers - like a DO for example. They have fared best and have long term contracts. Compare DO versus say SII or NOV recent earnings report

The market treats them all the same but if I go into a sector I prefer the best fundamental story so if you go there, I think the select group of deep sea rigs have the best safety factor. But right now its a market where you throw a dart into a sector and monolithic moves take the whole thing up.

I will say this, if $50 oil is where we are at with THIS sort of global recession just imagine where we will be at when things recover. I love the space LONG run.... (commodities) - next 4-8 weeks I will have to watch the price action. Copper begun to roll over - so let's see how much is real and how much is just Chinese buying in commodities.


On Apr 29 02:41 PM Michael Letizia wrote:

> First time reading your comments. Been building positions in an oil
> service stock (nov) for a while now. Their numbers are strong and
> the stock is selling at a discount to it's intrinsic value. I feel
> stong about a pick up in damand for oil when we get back to a normal
> economy. What's your take?

A Chance to Get Back in the Market

Thanks bud - I cannot believe you think I am optimistic :) everyone accuses me of being a perma bear. I guess its from where you sit where you think someone else is.

As for bereal I am glad he loves pedigree. Unless you lived under a rock you will notice bankers have been asking for public handouts and brokers have cost many of their clients 30,40,50% the past year.

Yes, I do not strike to be like either of them.


On Apr 29 12:57 PM Hot Richard wrote:

> "up well over 20% today as they stated nothing much more than we
> plan to stay in business."
>
> HA! Says a lot about the market we're in! This is why I follow
> Trader Mark. He writes with style. I don't hold it against him
> that he's way more optimistic than I am.
>
> @bereal,
> Stop looking at pedigrees, good man! It ain't a shortcut you can
> trust.

Earnings Review: Ignoring Media and Government Reports

Sorry, there Asian and Europe divisions pale in comparison compared to Nike.

Give them another 5 years... yes. But if you think they hold a candle to Nike or Adidas overseas...

p.s. Go Man U.

Buffalo Wild Wings and Chipotle Hit by Food Inflation

Hi MoneyTree,

I like CMG for the long term. I think it has gotten ahead of itself. With that said it is not easy to stand in front of a freight train and many momentum stocks have destroyed shorts... once a company detaches from fundamentals does it matter if it trades at 60x forward earnings or 160x? Not really. It is still detached. Again I like this stock long term as it has a lot of expansion possibilities, and its management style if wonderful. With that said, at some point in every growth stock the pattern is, company continues to beat analysts over the head, analysts continuosly underestimate company - then analysts one day catch up and put a target that the company can only 'match' or 'mildy beat' - at that that time the momentum lemmings in the stock sell off in panic attack and stock can drop 30% overnight. I can cite hundreds of examples but if you want ones specific to "food/beverage" one can go back to Panera Bread (PNRA), Whole Food (WFMI) or Starbucks. All great investments over the long run (as you mention); but if you get in late and chase you got destroyed in them. This is my point, you have a stock at 60x earnings when the rest of the sector is far below. Just like Whole Foods, was at a multiple nowhere in line with the rest, as was Panera.... and yes they had the same growth or very similar. Now in my opinion once this washout occurs, whether it be in 2 quarters or 4, it will be time to get long CMG again. Expectations need to get reset. Just my opinion. The stock has a LONG way to go up over the years, but in all stocks you mentioned they had periods where they fell or underperformed. I believe CMG might be in store for one of those - do you feel it should get a 70-80x forward earnings? Because to rise from here, that is what we will be asking the market to give it.