TraderMark

China and the Baltic Dry Index - What's Really Going On?

If you are interested in shipping the Lloyds List website is excellent

www.lloydslist.com/ll/...

For specific calculation on BDI I just googled and found this, but I'd research further

www.learningmarkets.co...

I've never delved into the "mechanics" of the index itself, although I'm familiar with the type of ships and their capabilities. You need to, to really know what you are buying when you pick these shippers - although they tend to move in one big mass since they are daytrader specials nowadays.


On Feb 11 11:14 AM poor&unemployed wrote:

> Taterlot
>
> Thanks. Is there any exchange where the charter contracts are registered.
> Like stock prices - one can not fake trade to boost DJ-30 index.
>
>
> How do they account for liquidity issues - when there are 50 vessels
> waiting at Singapore and competing for one cargo. Many owners are
> willing to take the cargo for cost fuel and running expenses like
> crew wages or even less.
>
> Is is a open outcry bidding or a private deal between two parties
> with long business relationship?
>
> How is the BDI calculated?
>
> Thanks again.
>
> On Feb 10 10:29 PM Tatertot wrote:

China and the Baltic Dry Index - What's Really Going On?

Thanks for all the comments everyone. User354938 thanks for the on ground look - I did buy BHP today to get some exposure to base metals on its pullback. I do think China comes out of this first and govt there will have much more impact than ours. But as someone else says the BDI is a "lazy man's indicator"

I am hoping by early 2010 to see China begin to emerge from slump. But since traders love these commodity plays I went with a safe(r) type of addition to my fertilizer/coal plays and BHP it is. The gamblers can play the DRYS and TBSIs :)


On Feb 11 07:53 AM User 354938 wrote:

> I am a polymer scrap trader. My primary market was China before
> the September market collapse, which was complete. Our customers'
> own orders disappeared in September and they ran out of cash to buy
> speculatively. Volume went to zero until the end of January. Volume
> accelerated in week 1 and 2 of February. We watch the BDI, copper,
> aluminum, US polymer spot prices, and the offers we receive daily
> from Chinese buyers to decide on what scrap we will buy that week.
> We like what we are seeing on all of those indices (especially the
> drastically increased inquiries from China), so we have increased
> our buying and are willing to pay a little more for the scrap to
> get it. We are bullish on base commodities now and we do not care
> if it is just based upon Chinese inventory restocking. After all,
> the economy starts by pulling something out of the ground and sending
> it to someone who makes something out of it that someone can use.
> Inventory restocking is where a recovery starts. The economists
> say we are not in a recovery yet, but our business is definitely
> in a recovery. These are just my thoughts as a physical commodities
> trader.