TraderMark

4 Stocks in Trouble

DaveW,

This was a purely technical call on a sector I've been bullish on, probably far longer than all the people in the comments section who are demeaning the call. It was not a 1 day call, and when the fertilizers have a new move, I plan to be in it; they have been very range bound for about 5-6 weeks (I sold most of my positions at what I call the Intrepid Potash top), and I got yelled at then too. About 10% higher.

I notice a lot of emotion, and when you sell people seem upset. In the ire of the commentary people seem to miss the point that if things reverse, I'll change course too. I am not ready to change course after a 1 day change and nothing works 100% of the time. In a general sense when companies break below their 50 day moving average, on a closing basis, you need to be wary. I still see a gap around $110 in MOS which I can see being filled in due time.

I sold some of my coal today today - ANR up 60% in a month - I can only imagine the ire that will draw when Seeking Alpha announces it ;)

As someone else says, its too soon to tell; I'm not a daytrader and we'll see soon enough. I think the commodity complex is ready for a pullback and fairly or not, fertilizer gets thrown in that mix. We shall see how it plays out the next few weeks.

Apparently I am the only person who when they sell a stock, it reverses - everyone else must have some incredible portfolios - I am just slogging along, trying my best. :) I'll check back in a few weeks on the group and/or if we see a nice solid breakout (up) on volume, I'll pay up and get back in.

Adding Fertilizer and Mulling the Market as a Commodity

Phat Phat, you may be correct - probably jumped a bit too soon but I am only in about 60% of my intended allocation. But again its about timeline, over the next week or two we probably could see some material weakness.

These names have switched from "about to break out" to "about to break down" about 6 times in the past 4 sessions so it could go either way at this point. Longer term no question though...

The "No Amount of Bad News Can Bring This Market Down" Trades

sunrises, that would be an ambitious target.
If there is a belief the dollar will rally huge, than anything is possible, but I'd be looking at the 50 day average in low $130s as a solid first time entry point. I've held this name a long time so I keep a core position and then trade around it, so my focus might be different than someone buying it the first time.

I don't think it's expensive at all based on its mix of business but maybe some others do.

The "No Amount of Bad News Can Bring This Market Down" Trades

bearfund, I agree with you 100% intellectually

Unfortunately, this market is nothing related to logic. I am not touching the commercial banks here for reasons you listed. We have not even begun to discount all the bad loans coming related to the consumer. Just getting started here.

The i-banks are a little different animal - more towards the corporate side of thing and can be pseudo overseas plays.

I do expect a lot of regional banks to show serious trouble as we move through 2008 and into 2009. All the fuss so far has been with the big money center banks.

The "No Amount of Bad News Can Bring This Market Down" Trades

poncho, good call on bikes! Maybe Nike is a good call here because people will need to walk to work? Doesnt that run out the tread on their shoes much faster?

I am also looking into mule play... you know for those trips to grocery store - need to put the bags on something, now that people will be priced out of cars.

Hey GM Is now an international play, sales in Asia and all. They don't need no stinkin USA consumer.

Percentage of Stocks Below 200 Day Moving Average Now at Historical Oversold Levels

I still like DO, RIG, and ATW. Only issue is everytime the market panics it dumps these thinking crude is going back to $50. But I like the deep sea names and find them to be a good valuation. The market treats them with a cyclical multiple instead of a more secular one. If that ever changes they'd truly move.

The Google of Fertilizer: Potash Corp.

Thomas, I'd go to the Potash company homepage and read some of the pdf files in the about us section, specific to potash. Also they have a cool interactive map of where potash comes from globally and who uses it; it's color coded and has some neat graphics. Bottom line, Canada and Russia have the vast majority of worldwide potash reserves. The rest of the world combined has very little. Good luck!

Actually I think Taiwan annexed China the way those communists have turned capitalists ;)

The Google of Fertilizer: Potash Corp.

Hi Thomas,

Not unless China annexes Thailand.

See this:
www.commonlanguageproj...

I don't think $2 billion to open a mine is low barriers to entry. Also make a distinction between natural resources and non natural resources. i.e. China cannot product crude, cannot produce gold, cannot produce minerals, etc. They can produce steal, or eventually wheat/corn (although their natural geography is not as condusive to agriculture as a whole as the US or Russia for example) - so the short answer is no - its a finite resource. Remember 'fertilizer' has multiple inputs, nitrogen, phosophorous, etc.

And it's actually not my headline, Seeking Alpha has editorial control :) They have some good headline writers - my blog entry was titled "Strength Today: Potash" but my opening line was that Potash is the Google of fertilizer ;)

"www.fundmymutualfund.c...