TraderMark

Potash Stocks Sinking on Uralkali News

Yep Jake
But fell from $44 to $41 on news

kind of ironic - I guess most traders dont realize potash exposure in MOS ;)

Cutting Intrepid Potash on Quick 25% Gain

Hi Fear,

traditionally people don't use something 18+ months out as "forward PE ratio"... thats a bit far out. You are using 2009 estimates, not 2008 which would be a more traditional forward measure for now.

p.s. IPI is at 17 forward PE on 18 months out earnings. MOS is at 13-14 on estimates 12 months out. So who is cheaper? I am not saying MOS will go up more than IPI - I am simply stating if your defense is valuation - there are cheaper stocks.

As for onespacetraveler - there is a reason I got into IPI - not random choice.

seekingalpha.com/artic...

Also I believe I said weeks before it came IPO it would be the hottest IPO of 2008.

Thanks

Cutting Intrepid Potash on Quick 25% Gain

Of that 2nd group only AGU has potash - not the other 3 you mentioned.

edhaq$,
one positive for IPI is the weak US dollar vs Canadian producers for example.

Cutting Intrepid Potash on Quick 25% Gain

Adesai,
I still have a minor stake but just rolled the funds into Mosaic which I think is more undervalued. That said IPI has the IPO factor and limited freely trading share count thing going for them. Again, the group tends to move together so it might just be a moot point which potash name you are in sometimes.

Florida,
AGU has been a laggard in the group due to the retail arm of the business but since announcing the upside in earnings has popped. I expect the same commentary from the other names and/or they will just showcase the results in another sterling earnings report (but they will have higher input costs i.e. nat gas etc)

Cutting Intrepid Potash on Quick 25% Gain

It's more of a global situation than anything happening in the Midwest.

Further, I am sort of interested to watch how these stocks have moved with the grains... its as if the thesis is, when grains go up so should fertilizers. Anyhow interesting move - and funny to watch them all move in a group, like a pod of whales.

Fact is they are still cheap fundamentally - which is amazing. The main problem is the overall market is prone for a correction which is the main fly in the ointment. It certainly does not appear western governments care one iota about pulling back from biofuels which was a fear of mine about 6 weeks ago, the last time these names were going nuts.

What a world.

Cutting Intrepid Potash on Quick 25% Gain

helsi,

over time much higher
in the near term if market sells off they will sell off. Generally in a market correction the strongest stocks are the last to go so thus far certain sectors (fertilizer being one) has been unaffected but if you look back at January, March 2008, August 2007 etc you see they will fall too.

If they do, it will create a magnificent buying opportunity

If you are not the trader type just hold on and come back in a year. Potash producers have some fantastic things going their way EVEN after these tremendous runs. As long as future earnings estimates continue to be ratcheted up, their is upside to go. If one is more of an avid trader, there might be lower price points to buy in the days/weeks ahead. We shall see - its more up to the market - if the market were in bull mode I'd say buy hand over fist. This is not a bull market though, and the bear eventually hits every sector.

Intrepid Potash: Strong Quarter but Questions Remain

Adesai, if I had access to IPO shares I literally would of thrown everything I could into this type of name. Anyone who had IPO shares made 70% immediately. Unfortunately only those with connections gets the IPO share.

My next hope would be that it opens somewhere in the $35 range (the IPO price kept getting moved up) which I would also buy at. But as you know it opened immediately in upper $40s which was a very rich valuation based on info at IPO.

I am now looking at $3+ EPS so easy back of envelope $3+ x 20 PE = $60+

Anyone who got in at IPO would indeed of had the "hottest IPO of 2008"
I wish I had been one of those people.